USA main indexes

Sum
2017 leader NDX / QQQ has stopped on significant long term resistance, YR2 & 1HR3. But trends remain strongly up (rising MAs across the board) and no RSI divergence on daily or weekly charts.

SPX set saw selling from YR1 / 1HR2 area and broke MayPs, but managed to recover MayP on Friday. As long as MayPs holds, bulls get benefit of doubt.

This was also the case for NYA & VTI - although they didn't reach long term pivot resistance, Q2P test on NYA held and both back above all pivots on Friday.

INDU / DIA is a bit weaker with more glaring RSI divergence, and testing MayP - not conclusively above.

RUT / IWM, the weakest of the 5 for much of this year, remains below Q2P. 

My take - as long as SPY and VTI are above MayPs, bulls get benefit of doubt and IWM may recover Q2P again with NDX / QQQ resuming up. But if those break for the 2nd time this month, I expect that to be definitive and IWM will continue to lead main indexes lower. 

Charts
Cash index weekly charts with long term levels only
Daily ETF chart with long term & medium term pivots
Futures current contract pivots only (no S/R) and MAs for clarity of entries (now June 17 M)
Futures "1" continuous contract with Bollinger bands

SPX / SPY / ESM / ES1
SPX W deserves careful attention with double top on YR1 / 1HR2 area. This could be as important as double bottoms on 2HS2 in 2015 and YS1 / 1HS1 in 2016. However, last candle also gives chance for comeback, with hold of 10MA and rising 20MA (MAs not shown).
SPY D shows another fake break which is a bit annoying if you take action on it (4/13 break of Q2P followed by immediate recovery, and 5/17 followed by recovery in 2 days).
ESM shows resistance at the 3/1 highs, with only 2 slight closes above. 50MA rolling over to flat slope.
ES1 visit to lower daily BB especially with rising slope was bought. 
SPX set sum - YR1 / 1HR2 stopping the rally twice is potentially bearish, but as long as index is back above all pivots bulls get benefit of doubt on a comeback.

NDX / QQQ / NQM / NQ1
NDX W chart shows selling at YR2 and 1HR3.
QQQ on Friday still had resistance at YR2.
Futures charts still nicely rising MAs and well above all pivots. 
NDX set sum - strong trends, but selling at significant resistance of YR2 / 1HR3.

 

INDU / DIA / YMM / YM1
INDU holding 1HR1 as support looks more bullish.
Back to MayPs but DIA testing level and not clearly above.
D50MA still appears to have negative slope. 

RUT / IWM / RJM / RJ1
Weekly chart between levels.
IWM 2nd break of Q2P and still below, although did hold MayS1 on the low. 
D50MA and even D100 are flat. 

NYA & VTI
Both selling from double top area, but both back above all pivots on Friday gives bulls benefit of doubt. 

Valuation and fundamentals

The 10 period moving average of S&P forward earnings estimates according to Thomson Reuters continues to climb. 

The implied 18x P/E based on this estimate is up to 2414.

So far, 18x forward earnings (or at least the smooth 10 period moving average of it) has stopped the index twice based on weekly close. 

As long suspected, we have seen some professional selling at this valuation multiple. However, the level continues to climb and this allows price to follow without paying higher valuations. Rough estimate on score of -5 to 5 is 1.

*

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as reported by Yardeni is just not helping. 

Score this -3, lower than the last low. Combined total = -2. Based on this indexes should not race back to highs.

E-wave

Continuing a series. 

While not qualitative enough for today's environment, my rough take on this model has generated very good results.

March 2016 projected 2250-2500 SPX top 2017 Q2 to 2018 Q2, when SPX was at 2050 - ding!
Late June 2016 said ""If all this is correct then we are about to get the last best move of the bull market over the next year or two" - ding!
January 2017 said: "According to this view, top callers are pre-mature here. Strength begets strength as Wall Street drools over tax cuts, stimulus, and money coming out of bonds. This is what euphoria looks like." - ding!
Early March said: "So, the issue here is even if we just saw a decent trading top, what is next is a wave 4 and this is more likely to be sideways and drawn out in time." So far correct on all USA main indexes excepting QQQ - sideways and drawn out in time correction.
Mid March said: "Take note: if model is correct, the remaining up portions of this bull market are limited to: w5/W3 on weekly SPX chart; W5 on weekly SPX chart; Finito."

Click on tag if you don't know the lingo.

Currently W5 on monthly (W5 began from 2/2016 lows, W1 from 2009 lows).

On a weekly chart, this W5 is ideally subdividing into 5. It goes like this:

W1 up
W2 down
W3 that subdivides
w1 / W3 (wave 1 subdivision of larger wave 3)
w2 / W3 pullback
w3 / W3 longest and strongest
w4 / W3 correction
w5 / W3 final fling of the strong W3
W4 down that matches W2 in some way, but can be more drawn out in time
W5 that final push up that ends the party!

Check this against the chart.

I think we just saw w5 / W3 and now we are in W4. If W4 matches W2 in points then target is 2275. As it turns out this is near Q2S1. That would be a nice buy if SPX set Q2P breaks. 

$USD

Whether stocks have started a real correction remains to be seen, but what looks screaming bearish to me right now is the $DXY.

DXY weakness will support portfolio global overweight and could mean GLD / GDX on the long side. I haven't been too active trading these but really more a matter of time. Obviously easier longs elsewhere, and as shorts there has only been one good drop in 2016 Q4 as I highlighted. Even this probably better used as leverage signal for longs than short. That said, a skilled trader can use GDX and leveraged ETFs to advantage. 

Quarterly chart
This is Bollinger band divergence - 2016 Q4 highs and close inside band; 2015 Q4 highs outside and close near band; 2015 Q1 highs and close outside band. At the same time, RSI divergence too. DXY back to 10MA and if that goes next MA support level is rising 20 and 100, currently near 90.

Monthly
Failed at prior highs despite a few bars above. Note RSI divergence too. Testing rising 20MA, if that goes no support until lower band and 50MA 91-92.

Weekly
Already under W10, W20 since March, and breaking W50 here - W100 next to test. Cannot say breakdown of lower band is ideal short position, but still. 

Weekly long term pivots
What looks negative is the decisive rejection of the YP and HP that happened just in the last few bars. This targets YS1 94.86.

DXY D
And here's the daily with 4 pivots only - D200 and YP break, attempted recovery then fail, another attempted recovery and fail - decisive rejection in last 3 bars. 

Total market view

REVIEW
5/7/2017 Total market view: "...valuation at 18x forward earnings remains a potentially limiting factor, and SPY set is heading into YR1 / 1HR1 major resistance, and QQQ set heading into YR2. These are significant levels and how market reacts will be very telling. A significant top on these is very possible given seasonality and valuation, but anything above would be very bullish. Main task for the week is to judge whether risk will continue to power up or if a top looks likely then better to hedge or reduce. Bottom line - Trends are up for risk but SPX and NDX heading into major pivot resistance levels which is where important turns can happen."

Results
So far NDX reaching YR2 without any rejection, but SPX came within 4 points of YR1 and finished the week lower. 

Sum
USA main leader Tech QQQ and sector leader Semiconductors both looking great, above all pivots, above all MAs, and at resistance levels with no sign of rejection.

Global stocks are also delivering with KWEB best index ETF performance from 4/20 low that I am aware at about +10% from 4/20 open, and institutional 2017 favorites EEM and INDA doing quite well with 5% and 3.5% respectively. 

But this is not the picture in other indexes - SPX has paused at YR1 / 1HR2 resistance area and failed at 3/1 highs; DIA & NYA/VTI also both failing at 3/1 highs; and IWM went higher for a few days but Q2R1 rejection and back to testing Q2P. 

Safe havens held levels last week - VIX rebounded from Q2S1, TLT and AGG bounced off Q2Ps, and GLD held 1HP / Q2P combo. These increase the chance of a bearish scenario for stocks. 

In addition, there are other technical signals that often precede weakness such as weekly RSI divergence on USA mains excepting QQQ, weak advance decline volume difference, and daily 50MAs rolling over to flat or slightly negative slope on DIA and IWM.

Bottom line
I've mentioned that markets are a toss up two weeks ago, and last week decided that chances of powering up were slim so reduced portfolio from 120% long to 70% long on 5/9, and back up to 80% on 5/11. Part of this decision was the poor choice of vehicles on 4/20 & 4/24 which I have addressed here and here. 

If tech continues to lead and safe havens fade, then better to be full market weight. If pullback continues and IWM fails at Q2P and QQQ back under YR2, then I'd like to be a little less long.

Trends are up, but indexes at resistance and so far there has been mild selling on all USA mains except tech. I still think markets are a toss up. We'll see what happens.

Positioning
From 120% long to 70% by selling 2 IWMs, and hedging out 3 long units. Turns out TLT and GLD would have been better, but I had no confidence levels would hold given other charts. 

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - Levels to watch are NDX YR2 at 5684, SPX set YR1s (which vary a bit from cash, ETF and futures), as well as IWM Q2P.

Safe havens - TLT and AGG holding Q2Ps, and GLD also holding 1HP / Q2P, as VIX rebounds from a very low Q2S1. All these threaten stocks.

Sectors of interest - XLF under Q2P all quarter and barely up for the year. XLE below all pivots again despite bounce attempt. The entire tech vs materials story - AMZN vs M, Bitcoin vs GLD, TSLA vs XLE is an interesting one if you are on the right side of markets.  

Global indexes - KWEB! INDA & EEM doing great too. I thought EWZ weekly chart looked suspicious, but a big jump last week and back above all pivots. RSX below Q2P, SHC broke under YP and thus below all pivots on 5/8 and still below. 

Currency and commodity - DXY 3 day attempt to reclaim YP and D200, and failed on Friday. DXY below YP and D200 makes global stock outperformance easier. Oil low 5/5 is bang on YP on CL1 contract. But well under all pivots on current contract and USO, so I'll avoid on the long side. 

OTHER TECHNICALS
Weekly chart RSI divergence lesson here.

VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
Really not helping stocks. Based on this I'd say very slim chance of bullish scenario for stocks playing out. 

SENTIMENT
Of 4 meters I track, none at extremes though NAAIM exposure is getting up there.

TIMING
(Proprietary work in progress model)

May dates published in 4/30 Total market view
5/3-4 - so far stock index minor pullback low on 5/3
5/19 (stronger) - not sure direction

5/9 was actually there in system but I missed it on 4/30 post so will not count it.

Positioning

Came into week 120% long via:

1 QQQ (12/7)
2 INDA (3/3 & 3/28)
2 EEM (3/13 & 4/3)
2 SPY (4/17)
2 IWM (4/20)
1 KWEB (4/20)
2 SPY (4/24)

The 4/20 & 4/24 buys were very much right idea, but other vehicles would have produced a much better return. Analysis here and here. 

Adjustments
5/8: None
5/9: Sell 2 IWM, 2 SPY short hedges, 1 QQQ short hedge to reduce to 70% net long
5/10: None
5/11: Cover 1 SPY, 80% net long
5/12: None

Currently 10 longs, 2 short hedges for 80%. 

Positioning information
1 position represents 10% of capital.
Limits: 15 or 150% long, -50% shorts, hedges or safe havens, 200% max total exposure.
Currency & commodity positions are not included in this system.

Best buys from 4/20

Following up on this post, showing how selection of vehicle from 4/20 area buys has made a huge difference in returns.

China tech KWEB leading with over 10% gain from 4/20 open.
SMH & EEM also healthy gains above 5%.
QQQ well above other USA mains at 4.5%.
INDA still doing OK at 3.5%, also above other USA mains.

But relative losers were:
XLF, only 1% compared to SPY 1.5%
IWM, about flat.
XLE, a true negative, down -1%.

So portfolio would have had a huge boost catching the winners here - right idea, wrong execution. What would have been better?

KWEB already had big run up but actually was above all pivots on the 4/18 low - and has turned out the relative winner. Right idea, did enter one, but more much better.

QQQ well above Q2P, only slight break of MayP and back above all pivots as of 4/20.

EEM well above Q2P, only 1 day break of AprP and recovery 4/20.

SMH broke Q2P slightly, recovered all pivots on 4/20.

INDA above all pivots from 1/24, with just very slight fractional break of 5/8.

SPY and IWM also reclaimed all pivots 4/20 (IWM) and 4/24 (SPY), but haven't done much since.

Weekly chart MAs would have settled it - 
KWEB & EEM held weekly 10MAs
QQQ slight break and fast recovery of weekly 10MA
SMH near test of sharply rising weekly 20
SPY also near test of rising 20MA
IWM and XLF had already broken weekly 20MAs, and were down near lower weekly BBs

Anyway main point is that I should have gone with charts that had stronger weekly chart structure instead of thinking Trump trade may return. That was opinion and not really in other charts despite the pivot status of IWM on 4/20. 

 

Divergence

RSI divergence on SPY weekly chart pretty clear here. This doesn't get every top but it is often there on high tests that matter. We can add in BB divergence because 2/27 week top tagged the band and this high entirely inside thus far. 

Note the positive examples on the lows in early 2016 - slightly lower price lows yet closing inside the band and higher RSI compared to Septepmber 2014. 

Safe havens

Sum
Safe havens showing some caution for stocks. VIX is below all pivots but rebounding up from Q2S1 on a 5/8-10 area turn. XIV not showing any trouble at MayR1 though, and if higher watch 1HR3 / Q2R2 resistance. 

TLT & AGG, and GLD & GDX, all held or recovered levels last week. Strength in safe havens increases the chances of a bearish scenario playing out for stocks. Safe havens breaking levels would give stocks all clear to push higher. 

VIX
Weekly chart slightly above the 2014 close low.
Daily chart below all pivots, but rebounding from Q2S1.
Another great job on stock buys 4/17 & 4/24, just choice of vehicle mattered.
VIX sum - below all pivots, but currently rebounding from Q2S1 test 5/8-10 increases the chances of a stock turn. 
 

XIV
No problems here, though RSI divergence clear.
XIV at MayR1, if higher 1HR3 and Q2R2 combo will be next area to watch. 
XIV at MayR1 but so far no damage. RSI divergence on W and D charts but so far holding up well. 

TLT
Weekly chart failed near the YP HP combo.
Daily chart holding Q2P again though, and back above rising D50.
TLT longer term weak, but just not giving up and staying above the Q2P which increases chance of bearish scenario for stocks. 

AGG
Also failed at YP / 1HP combo 4/18-20, but just held near test of Q2P and rising D100 and D50 MAs.

GLD
Weekly chart another hold of 1HP.
Daily top on Q2R1 and fast plunge. Again holding 1HP Q2P area. 
MAs are tougher here, below sharply falling 10, falling 20, falling 50, and falling 200. Testing D400 (monthly 20MA) and rising 100 maybe helping out.

GDX
Reclaimed YP, but still under 1HP, Q2P and MayP. MAs mixed. 

USA main indexes

Sum
USA leader Technology (NDX / QQQ & futures) looks fantastic, testing YR2 without any sign of rejection thus far. The recent few day dip to the rising D50MA on 4/13 held massively and started another healthy leg higher, well above all pivots and all above the 10MA since 4/20.

It is a very different picture in the other main indexes which have either not sustained a move above the 3/1 highs (SPY & IWM) or simply failed to go higher (DIA & NYA/VTI). Most are above all pivots, but IWM is below MayP for the second time this month. SPX is bumping up against YR1 / 1HR2 resistance area.  

Bullish scenario would be tech continuing to lead, IWM back above MayP, and SPX starting to clear YR1 though SPY version of the same level is a bit higher. Bearish scenario would be NDX back under YR2 (Friday closed 2 points above), IWM under Q2P and DIA, NYA/VTI under MayPs. As I have been saying the last two weeks, odds seem a toss up here and will try to factor in safe havens, other technicals, etc, to decide what is more likely.

Charts
Cash index weekly charts with long term levels only
Daily ETF chart with long term & medium term pivots
Futures current contract pivots only (no S/R) and MAs for clarity of entries (now June 17 M)
Futures "1" continuous contract with Bollinger bands

SPX / SPY / ESM / ES1
Pause at YR1 / 1HR2 resistance 2400-2407.
SPY resistance levels are higher but still resistance 3/1 highs.
ESM above all pivots, above all MAs except 10 by a hair
ES1 YR1 tag and down.
SPX set sum - Pause at YR1 / 1HR2 resistance but tepid selling thus far and it may try to come back.
 

NDX / QQQ / NQM / NQ1
Weekly cash chart 2 points above level, YR2 5684.
QQQ slightly above.
NQM all above 10MA, incredible.
NQ1 just under YR1.
NDX set - looks to be in process of clearing but futures not quite there yet and 2 points really too close to call.

INDU / DIA / YMM / YM1
Between long term levels.
DIA above MayP.
YMM above MayP and 20MA, but below10MA. Also note slope of D50 starting to level out.
INDU sum - Above all pivots and not an any resistance areas, but a bit weaker than SPX via moving averages and D50MA starting to level out, a sign of slowing trend. 
 

RUT / IWM / RJM / RJ1
Weekly chart between levels.
IWM high on Q2R1 near exact, and 2nd time below MayP. Again testing Q2P.
Futures charts show low on Q2S1 and high on R1, back to Q2P. Also note flat D50MA.

NYA & VTI
Both not at long term resistance levels. Both pausing at 3/1 close highs, but both above MayPs.

Valuation and fundamentals

Thomson Reuters data showing 12 month forward P/E of 17.57. This makes the 10 period moving average of implied earnings 133.83, up decently from last week.

Multiply this by 18 and you have valuation level resistance for SPX, which has now climbed above 2400.

But this is still looking like resistance for SPX.

Increasing earnings is a positive, but still there appears to be professional selling at this multiple. I will score this a 1 based on rising slope. 

*

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is just not helping things here. 

Score this -2.

Combined total = -1 on a scale of -10 to +10. According to my rough estimates of valuation and fundamentals, markets should be topping out with very slim chance of SPX blasting through YR1. 

Best moves from April low

I was right to be buying 4/20 and adding leverage 4/24, but choice of vehicle made a huge difference in returns.

Here is a 2 hour chart of the USA mains with SPY as the bar chart, and the other 4 in line charts with QQQ obviously leading in red at over double the gain of SPY; DIA in orange about the same; IWM in paler orange only 1% up, half the gain of SPY and just a quarter of QQQ; and VTI tracking SPY quite closely. 

Taking off VTI and DIA for clarity, adding other hot trades - SMH now in orange above the red QQQ; EEM in light green currently matching QQQ; and KWEB soaring above on top in green with 9% gain vs QQQ 4.5%.

OK, taking those off and keeping SPY as the bars, QQQ above in red, IWM in orange under SPY - XLF so far is above the same as SPY in performance, but XLE is actually down 1%. 

So, it was a smart move to finally officially recommend KWEB (blog post on this one 2016 Q4) but not so smart to ignore QQQ and SMH in favor of IWM. To be fair, IWM did have a fast start and led up to 4/26. So perhaps the real error was in the exit, but still, when I have more to say on the entry choice perhaps there will be another post.  

Average true range

File this under my list of "other technicals" - multiple moving averages across time-frames, RSI, Bollinger bands (first three are the basics), advance-decline volume difference, and average true range, and let's throw in Elliott wave structure in there too.

If time permitted % of stocks above/below D50MA / D200MA would be helpful, but if at a fund I would just do it via pivots across all stocks in the indexes. Ie, in all the S&P500 what is the pivot status of each stock? And what is the sector picture? It would be likely to see the component message before the index message, or at least confirming. 

I digress. Here is the average true range on the weekly SPY chart, with a red line shown at current level and arrows on SPY where the market has reached this level during 2009+. 

Like the other technical indicators, there is not just one thing and nothing is ever 100%. Here's the list of the arrows:

March 2010, few weeks from major top and correction
Dec 2010, market higher for several months into April 2011, but not by much
Oct 2012, middle of mild drop
Jan 2013, no damage in middle of QE run higher
Nov 2013, higher but not by much, mild drop Jan 2014
June 2014, preceded mild drop
Aug 2014, preceded correction

And now. A lot of the mild pullbacks above tested the weekly 20MA and the larger drops went to the lower BB or 50MA. We just had a test of the weekly 20MA, so if the market was setting up for larger drop then lower BB & 50MA are both 222-224 and rising. Or the more positive version could play out, higher but not by much and several weeks or months of consolidation. 

I confess that the same indicator in the 2004-07 rally didn't work as well, because so much of the climb was very dull and so a lot of the weeks were lower range. Going back to the 1995 rally, the reason why VIX was increasing was because average true range was increasing as well. Does this mean the chart above is more an anomaly than true market condition? Perhaps, but this is why no indicator can be understood in isolation, and why I am trying to build a picture of the most likely path forward given the collection of these tools - pivots, other technicals, valuation & fundamentals, sentiment and timing - all applied to stocks, safe havens, sectors, global indexes, currencies & commodities.

Total market view

REVIEW
4/30/2017 Total market view: "Market is really a toss up here, so we will see if MayPs hold for USA main indexes this week. If so, will maintain positioning. Even before the rally last week thought this leg would not have the same gains as Nov to Dec or Jan to March for USA indexes. But if MayPs hold there is the chance we see the higher target levels listed above."

Result: MayPs held across the board for USA main indexes, and all excepting IWM finished slighly higher, with tech again delivering the best gains.

SUM
The trend is decently up with 5 USA main indexes above all pivots. 4 of 5 of those are above all daily moving averages as well, with only the 10MA missing on IWM. Sentiment is not too toppy, though ISEE had a recent spike high on 4/27 which often limits upside in weeks ahead. 

Safe havens are confirming risk on - VIX back under all pivots 4/24, XIV above all pivots 4/24; and TLT, AGG, and GLD faded from April highs and have been below MayPs.

The market had already decided the French election result and it seems in this case it was correct.

But valuation at 18x forward earnings remains a potentially limiting factor, and SPY set is heading into YR1 / 1HR1 major resistance, and QQQ set heading into YR2. These are significant levels and how market reacts will be very telling. A significant top on these is very possible given seasonality and valuation, but anything above would be very bullish. Main task for the week is to judge whether risk will continue to power up or if a top looks likely then better to hedge or reduce. 

Bottom line
Trends are up for risk but SPX and NDX heading into major pivot resistance levels which is where important turns can happen. I'll be observing market action from these levels and then taking appropriate action - holding leveraged long if any strength above, reducing if any rejection.

Positioning
120% long though QQQ would have been much better choice (again) than recent SPY or IWM longs. 

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - watching SPY YR1 and QQQ YR2, and on the other side, IWM Q2P / MayP combo.

Safe havens - Looks like TLT, AGG and GLD will be testing levels soon, part of the tell for risk. 

Sectors of note - A long term investor taking into account YP & HP only with an active allocation approach would have shifted to underweight XLE from 2/13 week with a weekly close below 1HP. Last week had a fractional close below YP as well.

Global indexes - China weakening via FXI and SHComp, but ACWI, INDA, EEM and KWEB still doing great. Best performer of the year? India small caps. I'm serious. But EWZ and RSX both vulnerable with oil drop. 

Currency and commodity - DXY remains below all pivots, allowing global indexes to outperform. Oil held YP on CL1 contract last week, so this is level to watch from here. 

OTHER TECHNICALS
Advance decline volume difference is trying to turn up on daily and weekly charts. 

Note: RSI already overbought for USA main index quarterly and monthly charts, now weekly and daily approaching overbought as well. Next week higher with indexes stopping at 70 area RSIs while tagging YR1 / YR2 resistance on positive sentiment would set up a decent top.

VALUATION & FUNDAMENTALS
Not helping. Based on these, slim chance that SPY powers up above YR1. 

Timing
(Proprietary work in progress model)

May dates published in 4/30 Total market view
5/3-4 - so far stock index minor pullback low on 5/3
5/19 (stronger)
 

Positioning

Came into week 120% long via:

1 QQQ (12/7)
2 INDA (3/3 & 3/28)
2 EEM (3/13 & 4/3)
2 SPY (4/17)
2 IWM (4/20)
1 KWEB (4/20)
2 SPY (4/24)

So the mistake was not piling back into QQQ on 4/20 instead of SPY & the disappointing IWM. I don't know why I have been somewhat reluctant on QQQ this year. In January was already fully long other vehicles, and simply shifting over would have doubled SPY gains. The recent drop was the first real pullback and there was a chance to add back in QQQ but went with IWM thinking some rotation, but that has been wrong.

Adjustments
5/1: None
5/2: None
5/3: -1 EEM short hedge, -1 RSX short
5/4: None
5/5: covered EEM short hedge and RSX short (both moves small gains)

So list back to same as above. 

*

Positioning information
1 position represents 10% of capital.
Limits: 15 or 150% long, -50% shorts, hedges or safe havens, 200% max total exposure.
Currency & commodity positions are not included in this system.

Global indexes

I really like trading these because often more volatility both up and down than USA indexes, but often don't have time to do full blog post. 

In 2014-15 while at the fund I was all over the China rally and drop, and of course with oil crashing Brazil and Russia got hit too. On this site I started highlighting EWZ in February 2016 as a relative leader on the lows, and mentioned it frequently after that along with semiconductors. EWZ finished 2016 up 61% and actually put in 122% rally low to high tick for the year, so think about that for performance opportunities.

This year the story so far is India and China tech. I am kicking myself for not playing KWEB because I even posted on that end of Q4 2016, but life got busy in January 2017 and I just didn't have the same time for usual chart analysis. INDA is doing great at 19.5% YTD and portfolio has caught some of that move, but saw on finviz that small cap India ETF SCIF is up over 40%! This means in ETF land the best things to own have been India small caps, China tech, India in general, USA tech, and EEM. This is while Trump favorites financials and USA small caps have done very little. 

 In general the indexes I track are: ACWI, FXI, SHComp, EEM, INDA, RSX and EWZ, and recently added KWEB to that list. I don't really use ACWI as a trading vehicle, more like global counterpart for NYA/VTI. 

ACWI, INDA & KWEB lead
EEM also strong
FXI weaker but testing Q2P
SHComp testing YP / 1HP combo - any lower and below all pivots, already 1 failed bounce
EWZ better than RSX but struggling at resistance and looks ready to drop
RSX below Q2P, still fighting back to hold 1HP again - some chop around this area along with weekly 200MA

Charts for each are a weekly with standard technicals, weekly pivot, and a daily pivot chart.

ACWI
Wow, powering up and very nice new highs on 5/5. Above long term resistance YR1 and 1HR2. Q2R1 only concern here along with daily RSI OB, but the weekly charts look like 2nd week above major breakout which should have more to run. 

FXI
Weekly 200MA in thick black tried to lift but failed. Still above rising weekly 20 though.
Top on YR1, and below 1HR1 as well - weaker.
Slight break of Q2P but decent recovery on 5/5. Also note massive selling from that YR1 level.

KWEB
New highs.
Weekly chart lift above YR1 looks good.
Daily chart testing Q2R1 but may clear.

SHComp
Weekly chart from 100MA through 20MA no bounce and down to 50MA. 
Testing YP / 1HP combo!
Daily chart already shows one failed bounce from YP.
Any lower and SHC is below all pivots. 

EEM
Weekly chart above rising 200MA, much better looking than FXI.
Pivot charts above YR1, also more bullish.
EEM doing fine, but any more weakness in FXI would drag this lower too.

INDA
Should be able to reach 2015 highs given strength thus far.
Nicely above YR1.
Daily chart also above all pivots. 

RSX
3 tries above that falling weekly MA and 3 breaks. 
But 1HP not giving up yet. 

EWZ
Above the weekly 200MA, but weak bounce could easily drop back down.
1HR1 resistance for several weeks. 
Daily chart broken Q2P 3 times only to have 3 comebacks.
Not giving up but looks ready to drop. 

Oil

Sum
First test of 2017 YP on CL1 contract was the plunge low and bounce last week. With monthly 20MA also nearby there is some chance of more bounce attempt. But given weakness of the 2016-17 bounce compared to the 2014-16 drop on the monthly chart, oil more likely going eventually lower even if YP holds here. We'll see.  

First some long term charts of CL1 contract. 

Quarterly
Back under 10MA, and below all the other MAs. On this view, there is nothing to stop this from going lower.

Monthly chart bit more chance of holding with 20MA testing. However, RSI tops at 50 area and weak bounce compared to drop does not make me very optimistic.

Weekly pivot chart
YP chopped in 2016 after YS1 was perfect low and YR1 near the high. Test of 2017 YP last week.

And here's the daily with MAs.

Safe havens

Sum
Safe havens confirmed risk on move with VIX back under all pivots 4/24, XIV above all pivots 4/24; then TLT, AGG, and GLD fade from April highs and these three below MayPs. If stocks higher and safe havens lower next week, then watching TLT & AGG Q2P and GLD 1HP & Q2P. 

VIX
Weekly chart at decade lows. No concern over election here so smart money really thinks it is done deal.
Daily chart at Q2S1, but I think we will see VIX divergence before a top that matters (ie, higher highs in price without lower lows in VIX).
Maybe that 1HS2 is doable on a tag to 8.98.
VIX sum - testing Q2S1 but supportive for risk below all pviots and MAs.

XIV
Weekly chart doing great above YR2. RSI near 70 though. 
Daily chart back above all pivots on 4/24.
Nearly AprR1 already, but I'm thinking high on AprR1 or maybe 1HR3 near 83.
XIV sum - confirmed risk on 4/24+. Watching for top near AprR1 or if higher 1HR3 is 83. 

TLT
Weekly chart near test of YP and lower. 
Long term trend down, medium term trend mixed - above Q2P, below MayP.
Trying to hold D50, but D20 clear resistance since 4/25. 
Other chart shows lower BB also near Q2P possible support.
TLT sum - Below YP, 1HP, and MayP; but still above Q2P. Could be interesting test for market if that holds as stocks top on SPY YR1 / QQQ YR2. 

AGG
1 day above YP and rejection. Like TLT, still above Q2P and D50MA. 

GLD
Back testing 1HP. Generally not a fan of patterns but that does look like huge head and shoulders top. This would imply smash of gold on the way.
Under MayP from 5/1 and down from there; also whacked from still falling D200MA. Test of Q2P & 1HP likely coming up. 
 

GDX
Under all pivots. 

USA main indexes

Sum
All USA main indexes are above all pivots, and all but IWM is above all MAs (IWM above all except 10MA). This is very bullish configuration and the trend gets the benefit of the doubt.

But leader QQQ is nearing YR2 and SPY YR1, so this means test of significant resistance is likely ahead. Also, on SPY, RSI approaching 70 area on both weekly and daily charts for SPY (RSI already 70+ on monthly and quarterly charts). So yearly levels are worth watching for a potential top, but anything above that sustains would be very bullish. 

Charts
Cash index weekly charts with long term levels only
Daily ETF chart with long term & medium term pivots
Futures current contract pivots only (no S/R) and MAs for clarity of entries (now June 17 M)
Futures "1" continuous contract with Bollinger bands

SPX / SPY / ESM / ES1
SPX weekly approaching long term resistance area of the 1HR2 & YR1 2400-2407. Positive to clear the previous weekly close high in the solid red line. Also note RSI at 68.2 approaching 70 level, possibly setting up divergence top. 
SPY right at the 3/1 close high. YR1 & 1HR2 a bit further out at 240.90.
ESM nothing wrong with this chart, nice hold of Q2P, recovery of MAs and heading up.
ES1 shows above 3/1 close high and heading into YR1 at 2403.
SPX set - Approaching YR1 / 1HR2 resistance area. Daily charts above all pivots and MAs is bullish; daily and weekly RSIs getting up there and worth watching 70 area tags if higher Monday.

NDX / QQQ / NQM / NQ1
NDX W heading to YR2 at 5684.
QQQ brief dip below AprP, recovery and another rocket up from there. 
NQ huge hold of D50MA.
NQ1 chart shows YR2 a bit higher than cash index probably due to 11/8/2016 influence. 

INDU / DIA / YMM / YM1
INDU long term resistance a bit further away.
Daily charts doing fine with hold of MayP and up. AprR1s doable. 

RUT / IWM / RJM / RJ1
Weekly chart also further away from levels.
Daily chart above pivots, but further from 3/1 high. So far Q2R1 is the top. Also, compared to QQQ move after 4/20 this has been very dissapointing. 

NYA & VTI
NYA above 2HR1 looking good.
Daily chart nice hold of MayP and UP. AprR1 doable and maybe Q2R1 above that. 
VTI similar, again at 3/1 close high but looks ready to get through. 

Valuation and fundamentals

Thomson Reuters reporting forward P/E of 17.75, which puts implied earnings at 135 area and the more important smoothing 10 period moving average at 133.55, continuing to climb. 

So here is 18x implied valuation, turning up after a flat period. 

And here is the same 18x valuation level with SPX price in orange. 

I still think 18x-19x will be significant resistance because with the antics of current administration smart money is not going to wait for 20x to begin serious selling. But if earnings increase, then that takes urgency off as price can climb higher with consistent valuations. Let's give this a 2 this week due to the rise in the average 18x level from 2400 to 2403, itself up from 2398 the previous week. This is coming after about 6 weeks of stall in the 10MA from 2695-2398.

*

However, Citigroup Economic Surprise Index looks terrible. Giving this a -2.

Combined score 0. These charts argue for a "sell in May" move but that doesn't mean it starts on 5/1.