Valuation and fundamentals

Thomson Reuters reporting forward P/E of 17.75, which puts implied earnings at 135 area and the more important smoothing 10 period moving average at 133.55, continuing to climb. 

So here is 18x implied valuation, turning up after a flat period. 

And here is the same 18x valuation level with SPX price in orange. 

I still think 18x-19x will be significant resistance because with the antics of current administration smart money is not going to wait for 20x to begin serious selling. But if earnings increase, then that takes urgency off as price can climb higher with consistent valuations. Let's give this a 2 this week due to the rise in the average 18x level from 2400 to 2403, itself up from 2398 the previous week. This is coming after about 6 weeks of stall in the 10MA from 2695-2398.

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However, Citigroup Economic Surprise Index looks terrible. Giving this a -2.

Combined score 0. These charts argue for a "sell in May" move but that doesn't mean it starts on 5/1.