Safe havens

Sum
VIX still above its YP means some validity to bear case, but with VXX below all pivots it isn't much.  

Other safe havens weak: TLT holding above its MP by a fraction, GLD weak and looks ready to go lower. GDX and SLV are odd, below all pivots but refusing to drop. I think there is a message here but won't play long side under a pivot signal. 

VIX
Above its YP since 1/29. 3 recent highs on monthly pivots; 4/25, 5/3 and 5/29.

VXX
Bears seemed to have chance on 5/29 but then immediately back under HP the next day. Note the high test in YP area early April. 

TLT
Fast bounce from low area as called, but also lasted above QP only 1 day and lower to start June. Holding above MP - barely. Any lower and below all pivots. 

GLD
Recently tried to hold HP but didn't get far; under QP, JunP and D200MA.

GDX
Odd - below all pivots but not dropping. Last touch of actual support was early March. 

SLV
Also below all pivots without touching any monthly support since February. This 'could be' long term accumulation but if a rally gets going we will see improvement above pivots like XLE recently. 

Safe havens

Sum
VIX has been quite correct to be warning of trouble from 1/29 on. Considering the USA main index top was 1/26 (Friday) that is pretty awesome. 

Due to 2017 low range, the higher VIX is bouncing around yearly levels quite often since the spike. 1/24 YR3 rejection, 2/26 YR1 test, 2/27 YR1 launch, 3/1-2 YR3 test, 3/2 YR3 rejection. Currently VIX below MarP but still well above YP, HP and QP. 

Bonds are all weak, with a multi-week run below all pivots for most. So far the TNX high very near YR2 but back above all pivots on 3/2. 

Metals are mixed. GLD looks like it could recover above all pivots easily, and this would likely get GDX and SLV in gear. 

VIX
D pivots only: Leap above all pivots 1/29 was the risk off screaming sell. Above all pivots 1/29-2/28; still above YP, HP and QP. Below MarP gives bulls a shot at bounce.
D: 3/2 YR3 rejection and close under YR2 also helps the bull side.

TLT
D: Bond bloodbath continues, some bounce from oversold levels but could not recapture YS1 on close. MarP resistance so still under all pivots as it has been since 1/18.

TNX
High on YR2 so far, but back above all pivots on 3/2. 

AGG
Stabilizing near HS3 but still under app pivots. Weak. Under all pivots from 1/9.

LQD
YP break on 2/1 and from there below all pivots. 

HYG
Break of YP 1/30 and from there below all pivots. Under MarP and under YS1 so far this month. 

GLD
D: Wouldn't take much to recover above all pivots. Nice rising D50MA as well. 

GDX
2nd low near YS1 / HS1 combo. Still under all pivots though. 

SLV
Under all pivots but would not take much to clear one or more of those levels. 

Safe havens

Sum
Have to say VIX had another market move pegged (by jumping above all pivots on 1/29). UVXY worked well as a hedge, though it seemed like it could have moved even more given the greater decline in stocks than August. 

VIX is quite far from returning below all pivots, so we might not have a "everybony back all in the pool" signal for stocks for a while. Near term watching YR1.

Bonds have been clearly weak from the beginning of the year, and this week LQD and HYG joined the others below all pivots. For investing purposes, I still recommend total return pivots on higher yielding vehicles as outlined in recent posts and tweets. 

On metals, GLD could reclaim FebP and if so would be interesting buy candidate again. 

VIX
W: Weekly close above YR1 first time since 2014!
D: Big jump above YP was signal to reduce risk on 1/29.

XIV
Blue arrow at buy rec; orange arrow at FebP clear resistance nice add. Q1P break, already at FebS1.

TLT
Already at YS1. 

AGG
D: Below YS1.

LQD
Below all pivots.

HYG
Below all pivots as of 1/30 then again 2/1.

GLD
D: Back above FebP would be buy candidate. 

GDX
Below YP, 1HP and JanP; holding Q1P.

SLV
Breakdown below all pivots. Avoid. 

Safe havens

Sum
The interesting thing is that VIX and XIV are not sharing the enthusiastic start that indexes have enjoyed. Typically VIX and XIV wind up being on the right side of markets.

A strong start of 2018 was expected - OK not this strong, but still, right idea. I was also on top of GDX YP hold in mid December and GLD moving above all pivots on 12/26, and holding those positions. But now I think the next move to watch is XIV / UVXY as a trade against XIV JanR1; triggered if XIV below its weekly pivot next week.

Also, on a larger level, the market and pivots is making it so clear what is to be avoided or at least underweight; these are bond indexes below 1HPs such as TLT, AGG and LQD. AGG even below its YP as well. 

Now, because the yield is impacting the return, long term investors are already getting a clear warning sign of these as an asset class and would do well to check stockcharts.com dividend included charts and use a simple YP and weekly 50MA and its slope as a guide to allocations. 

See these tweets if interested:

https://twitter.com/pivotalmomentum/status/952237594703675392
https://twitter.com/pivotalmomentum/status/952238688448126976

VIX
D: Low on 1/4 some divergence to indexes, but comfortably below all pivots.

XIV
D: Very near JanR1 tag on the high sof ar. Well above all pivots due to Dec spike, but could be worth watching as r/r trade on UVXY. XIV below a weekly pivot next week would trigger this trade.

TLT
D: Low near 1HS1 and rebounded back above YP somewhat. Still well under 1HP, Q1P and JanP.

AGG
D: Under all pivots. Low on 1HS1 exact so far.

LQD
D: Below 1HP, Q1P and JanP.

HYG
D: Holding large pivot cluster of YP, 1HP, Q1P and JanP all 87.24-50.

GLD
D: Pointed out on 12/26 as back above all pivots worth a position. Doing well and now easy hold above Q1R1.

GDX
D: Pointed out on 12/13 as partial position based on YP recovery. 8% up since then.

SLV
Even SLV above all pivots due to $DXY plunge.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX and XIV remain the most reliable safe haven tells and they are both comfortably all systems go for stocks. 

Bonds are clearly the weak link in asset classes with TLT, AGG and LQD below 3 of 4 pivots (all above YPs, below the others). HYG weaker in Q4 but zoomed above all pivots on 1/3.

Metals also strong with GLD, GDX and SLV all above all pivots, partially reflecting DXY weakness; but GLD some toppy reaction from Q1R1 so far. 

VIX
VIX D: All systems go for risk with VIX below Q1P and JanP cluster 11.39-50 then YP and 1HP both 12.29.

XIV
XIV D: Well above all pivots, but not yet at Q1R1 or JanR1.

TLT
D: Below 1HP, Q1P and JanP; above YP.

AGG
Still holding on to YP, but below the others. 

LQD
Below 3 pivots, but well above YP.

HYG
Helped confirm risk on with jum pabove YP, 1HP and Q1P on 1/3. 
 

GLD
Jumped above all pivots late in Q4; so far move stopped at Q1R1.

GDX
Also above all pivots, not yet at resistance.

SLV
Above all pivots.

Safe havens

Sum
Once again VIX and XIV providing very reliable clues for risk. XIV dove off cliff but bungee jumped back to close above all pivots on 12/1, and remained above all pivots this week with near test of DecP. VIX above a monthly pivot on close for 1 day this month 12/4; back under 12/5 and convincing drop from Q4P and back below DecP 12/6.

TLT made a move above its YP but AGG remains weak. Metals trading very weak with SLV under all pivots 11/29 and the easy short trade. 

While some stock indexes are near big levels, with most safe havens supportive of risk assets have to say stocks higher is the more likely outcome for next week. That will be even more the case of TLT drops under its YP. HYG being ignored for now - maybe because these cos in debt will have a tax break soon? 

VIX
W: Several tests of 2HP, but last close above was mid August.
D: Crystal clear VIX pivot rejection (& stock buy / short cover) on 12/6. 

XIV
W: Potential rejection of 2HR2, but came back.
D: Daily held above all pivots on 12/1, and 12/6 also near test of DecP held. 

TLT
Still above YP but highs did not reach the Q4R1 level. 

AGG
2HP low, YP high twice in Dec so far. Bearish for AGG when YP acts as clear resistance.

HYG
Below 3 of 4 pivots not really confirming stock move. 

GLD
After lots of chop a decent drop under Q4P. Low DecS2 so far.

GDX D
The easier short - under Q4P since 10/23; 3rd rejection of 2HP was the charm. YP level to watch. 

SLV
The even easier short under all pivots from 11/29.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX and XIV both made huge moves on Friday and somehow reversed to finish back under all pivots / above all pivots respectively. 

Bonds are showing a bit more trouble, with TLT testing YP - again! - making anything higher back above all pivots. HYG also weaker, under 2HP.

While GLD testing Q4P and DecP, GDX and SLV weak.

VIX DecP, XIV DecP and TLT YP interesting levels to watch for next week but as of now risk on continues. 

VIX
W: Could have lifted above 2HP but didn't.
D: Somehow fell back to finish below all pivots! High near DecR1.

XIV
W: Holding 2HR2 as support.
D: Also held DecP.

TLT
D: Above 2HP, Q4P and DecP; testing YP.

AGG
YP still resistance, and below DecP as well. 

HYG
Below 2HP, Q4P and DecP.

GLD
Testing Q4P and DecP. 
 

GDX
2HP clear resistance, and under DecP as well.

SLV
Under all pivots.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX correctly anticipating stock weakness, but given the close above 2HP on 11/15, even the smart money surprised by the magnitude of bounce on 11/16. To be fair VIX did drop back under 2HP and Q4P that day, but often VIX will make a clear move before stocks (just like on VIX lows & stock highs such as 11/7-10). 

Currently VIX above only NovP, and while 2HP and Q4P more important market is not fully in the clear until VIX is below all pivots. XIV is more confident, so current configuration is mostly long risk.

TLT back to YP again; any higher and TLT will be above all pivots. 

Pop in GLD and SLV above all pivots; GDX not making the same move. 

VIX
D: Still above NovP, but RSI 70 on the high was hit hard with a drop back under 2HP and Q4P the next day. So far looks like many other good buys this year like 8/22, 5/19, 4/24, etc, with one exception - VIX still above NovP. 

XIV
Only 1 day below NovP though UVXY buy near 11/8-9 did work as a hedge. Back above all pivots as of 11/16, albeit fractionally, then definitely on 11/17.

TLT
Again back to YP. Any higher and TLT will be above all pivots. 

AGG
Held 2HP on low, but still under YP, Q4P and NovP.

HYG
Strong bounce from 2HS1 and Q4S2 area lows, but still below 2HP.

GLD
2nd move above Q4P; already testing NovR1. A lot of people including me were initially expecting metals down with rates up for Q4, so this is a surprise for the market. A couple weeks ago noted that though below Q4P metals were just not dropping as they should. 

GDX
Still under 2HP, NovP and Q4P. This chart implies GLD may fade soon; more bullish for metals if miners are participating in pivotal momentum like August.  

SLV
Above all pivots 2nd time this month, but at the same time clear resistance on NovR1. 

Safe havens

VIX and XIV are making noises - VIX above NovP for the second time this month, and XIV fell back under 2HR2 with weekly and daily RSIs near overbought. These add to concerns for risk next week.

Trouble in bond land last week with sharp drops in all classes: TLT AGG LQD and HYG. This hit metals as well. 

VIX
W: After new weekly close low last week, decent rebound that still stayed under 2HP.
D: Above NovP for the 2nd time this month. The move on 10/23-24 did correctly anticipate more stock weakness. 
D: Above D200MA s well; still under 2HP and Q4P. 
VIX sum: Spike to 2HP rejected to close under all pivots, but finished the week above NovP. Some warning here. 

XIV
W: Struggling at 2HR2 with RSI overbought. 
D: Still above all pivots but so far highs somewhat like Jul-Aug above one level and not quite on another. Liking idea of UVXY below the 2HR2. 
XIV: Also some warning with move above 2HR2 for 4 days and rejection. Still above NovP though. 

TLT
W: Another YP rejection! 3rd this year. 
D: Recent bounce quickly gone - under YP, Q4P and NovP. 

AGG
2nd D200MA break and back to 2HP. Any lower and below all pivots. 

LQD
Trouble in investment grade corporates as well. 

HYG
2nd break of Q4P from 11/1 and down from there. All the way to 2HS1 and RSI deeply oversold might be enough for some bounce. 

GLD
W: Small advance and under 10 & 20MA. Ready to drop.
W: Also rejected from Q4P.
D: Here's daily version of poke above and fail. 
GLD: Looks ready to go significantly lower. 

GDX
2HP rejection, 3rd time this quarter. 

SLV
2HP rejection, but not breaking down. 

Safe havens

Quick version
VIX and XIV continue to work as great tells for risk. After poking above OctP, 2HP and Q4P clear resistance in days that followed and back under all pivots on 10/27. NovP tested and convincingly held 11/2. XIV had a sell setup which came out to scratch as NovP held and rebounded the next day.

TLT and AGG oddly strong, with TLT also above its NovP. HYG is not confirming the move in stocks, currently below Q4P. 

This is happening with metals weaker, GLD below Q4P and GDX below 2HP.

VIX and XIV continue to be the best safe haven tells, but TLT strength and HYG weakness some discrepancy from the stock index moves last week. 

VIX
Pivot rejections have been the place to lift hedges in Q4. Only 4 days above OctP, and NovP clear resistance this week.

XIV
Held NovP this week, and Friday closed above 2HR2. 

TLT
Oddly strong - recovered 2HP, then held NovP, now back testing Q4P. 

AGG
Also held 2HP on the low, and back testing YP area. 

HYG
Not confirming move in stocks. Below Q4P and below NovP.

GLD
Staying below Q4P since 10/24 but not going that much lower yet. 

GDX
Also below 2HP but hasn't reached any support level. 

Safe havens

Sum
In last week's Total market view, "To my eyes, some sort of safe haven breakdown looks to be the more likely move." That played out with TLT breaking 2HP, GLD Q4P, GDX 2HP and SLV YP. 

VIX is below all pivots after moving above its OctP for a few days last week, and getting hit by 2HP and Q4P. XIV also above all pivots as it has been since 9/11, though had a sharp 3 day from from near 2HR2 all the way down to 2HR1 and back up again. That 2HR2 still in play and worth watching.

Other safe havens I don't really have a bias; weekly charts of TLT and AGG suggest bounce. Metals either way.

VIX
W: Off the lows but another sharp drop from very temporary spike.
D: And there are the pivots on play - above OctP for 4 days but 2HP and Q4P held on close and then smackdown.

XIV
W: RSI in toppy area; sharp drop from 2HR2 that found support at 2HR1.
D: Last week mentioned that a drop under 2HR2 would trigger a UVXY hedge which still had some gains before cutting on Friday with move above Q4R1. 

TLT
Broke under 2HP and D200MA but back to testing level and may try to come back.

AGG
Held 2HP and reclaimed D200MA.

HYG
Dip below Q4P which came back.

GLD
Fell under Q4P.

GDX
Broke 2HP big.

SLV
Drop under YP, but held Q4P.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX again proved why I consider it such an essential supplemental indicator and great all-round market tell. On Thursday, with an ugly open, VIX tagged the Q4P in pre-market and was near the OctP for session. VIX quickly assessed 'no problem' and dropped big from there. Oh yes this was also a tweet in real time. Not to mention VIX has been below all pivots on daily close every day from 8/22 on, the day after the last key pullback low in USA indexes on 8/21. 

XIV also doing well, above all pivots from 9/11 and showed no sign of any drop from Q4R1, which cleared on 10/13 and held as support on 10/19.

The only thing we can say here is some VIX divergence off lows, and XIV testing 2HR2 which could look more bearish with a fade back under the level.

Other safe havens are weak. TLT had the 2nd YP rejection of the second half, and back down to a crucial support area of 2HP and D200MA. AGG also under YP as of 10/20, while HYG nicely confirmed risk on by holding Q4P and recovering above all pivots on 10/17.

Lastly, metals are holding pivots but have put in lower highs and to my eyes seem ready to break down. 

With TLT lower and metals looking weak the larger theme is interest rates and I will do a special post on these coming up. 

Bottom line is - risk on. Usually we see VIX and XIV divergence along with safe haven strength (& HYG weakness) before a big stock index turn. That isn't happening right now. Stock indexes will be even stronger if TLT breaks 2HP and GLD breaks Q4P as the next move. 

VIX
W: Weekly close low holding as support the last several bars. However, spike up to near 2HP was quickly rejected.
D: In fact, Q4P on VIX high and slam.
D: 2nd time near tag of lower BB has been bought. 
Sum: Risk on with VIX below all pivots since 8/22 on daily close. Some divergence compared to indexes with VIX off the lows. 
 

XIV
W: RSI overbought now, but no BB divergence yet.
W: Slightly above 2HR2, level to watch.
D: Slightly above 2HR2; needs to fade back under or reach Q4R2 for an good UVXY idea. 

TLT
W: YP rejection! 2nd time in 2H. 2HP still holding but if that goes, we could see sudden move up in rates. 
D: OctP resistance then Q4P rejection last week. Back down near 2HP.
D: 2nd recent test of this crucial 2HP and D200MA area.
TLT: Still above 2HP, below the others; but seems like major breakdown could be next move.
 

AGG
Below YP for the 2nd time in Q4. 

HYG
Good tell last week to not get too bearish was HYG back above all pivots on 10/17.

GLD
W: Above 20MA, but to my eyes looks ready for fast drop lower. 
W: Near tag of 2HR1 rejection; 2nd time this quarter. 
D: Recovered Q4P then quick move to OctP, just as fast move back down to Q4P test. 
GLD sum: 2HR1 rejection and weekly chart looks bearish; but still above Q4P. Good r/r short below that level (which is also likely associated with interest rates going up).
 

GDX
Still above Q4P and D200MA; if lower then will be at 2HP support again. 

SLV
2 tries above 2HP OctP combo and 2 failures. Still holding YP support as of 10/20.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX and XIV continue to signal risk on. I have mentioned several times and may continue to mention that VIX helped confirm stock buys from 8/22 on by dropping back under all pivots on daily close, and has maintained that status since. XIV jumped above all pivots on 9/11, and has maintained that status since. Further, XIV cleared long term resistance 9/28-10/2 helping confirm the strength in stocks.

But last week I mentioned that TLT and GLD were "in places that usually would bounce" and that is exactly what happened. In fact both put in respectable moves, which should increase the risk to stocks. AGG added to clues by reclaiming YP last week, and HYG traded under its OctP for the last 3 trading days. Should HYG break Q4P, stock fade more likely underway. 

VIX
W: Back under 10 but so far above the weekly low close reached in July.
D: Back under all pivots on daily close from 8/22 worked very well as confirming stock buys from there. 
D: If lower, watching the BB for support because to reach a pivot support level it would have to drop into the 8s (which i doubt will happen). 

XIV
W: Still powering up; RSI reaching 70 and with crowded trade on VIX shorts I am watching this for a trade again.
D: This soared above Q4R1 on Friday so for a pivot entry we would want to see back under that level or above to 2HR2. Note: back above all pivots on 9/11 worked very well as confirmation to add stock longs. Then above long term resistance 9/28-10/2 helped confirm the breakout. 

TLT
W: Holding W200 and W50 as planned; probably a bit more bounce than I thought would happen.
W: Held 2HP.
D: Held D200 on the low; lifted back above Q4P; still under OctP and YP.
TLT sum: Saved long term support by making a decent bounce from 2HP, D200MA and near W200 and W50 as well. TLT strength is some warning for stocks. 

AGG
Brief dip below YP but came right back. Currently above YP, 2HP and Q4P.

HYG
Below OctP for 3 trading days, but holding Q4P. Risk to stock indexes will increase if Q4P breaks. 

GLD
W: Respectable bounce back above rising W20 and W10.
W: If higher back to 2HR1 and YR1.
D: Back above Q4P 10/9 was much easier than trying to short stocks. Testing OctP.

GDX
Hold of 2HP, D200MA then Q4P all 10/2-3. Slightly above all pivots. 

Safe havens

Sum
VIX and XIV remain very bullish for markets. 

Other safe havens meaning primarily TLT and GLD, and somewhat AGG, HYG, GDX and SLV have been confirming risk on the last few weeks as well. Currently TLT and GLD are in areas where some bounce may happen especially on a stock fade. That said barring some crazy NKorea confrontation I am expecting to see higher rates and so lower TLT and GLD in Q4. 

VIX
W: Weekly close low is being bought, but no real move higher yet.
D: Well under OctP. Little jump to falling 20MA was sold. 
VIX: Big picture is that VIX below 2HP 12.28 & Q4P 11.87 is bullish for risk assets. If it can go higher, OctP 10.97 also resistance. At the same time we have a near test of all time low levels and a reversal bar; we'll see if follow through soon.

XIV
W: Launched above the YR3 / 2HR1 resistance that marked the highs in July.
D: Between levels. Not really any trade here unless tags OctR1 104.88.
XIV: Confirmed risk on 9/11 with jump back above all pivots. Confirmed stock strength with lift above YR3 9/28 and then above 2HR1 on 10/2.

TLT
W: Coming down hard in recent weeks, and already at key support area of W50MA, W200MA and lower BB.
W: YP rejection but 2HP holding. 
D: 2HP and D200MA hold. 
TLT sum: Fast drop from the early Sept high, and now testing 2HP and D200MA which are places for possible bounce. But given Citigroup Economic Surprise, FOMC QE reversal, ECB tapering, i think pro money is selling bonds and rates are going to make a bigger move up.

AGG
Below YP. Still above D200MA and 2HP.

HYG
A bit under OctP, above Q4P which is the real level that matters. 

GLD
I did say err on side of taking gains 9/11 after holding longs for 2 months from 7/11 buy. But currently mixed condition is not best for trade. Above YP and 2HP, below Q4P. A pop above Q4P might be a short term way to play a stock fade.

GDX
Interestingly GDX held 2HP and D200MA on 10/2 and then recovered Q4P on 10/3. Better buy than GLD here although heading into falling D20 and OctP. 

SLV
Fell under all pivots 9/26 but most gains on short wiped out with Friday pop. This was just too big a reversal for me to mess with but I may re-enter short with a move back under Q4P.

Safe havens

Sum
Safe havens are echoing the move in stocks - risk on.

VIX just set new quarterly & monthly close lows according to TradingView data. XIV powering up above YR3 and previous highs, and now testing 2HR1 which is a level to watch for next week.

TLT failing below YP is a point for risk on. AGG is now testing its YP, so that's another level to watch for next week especially for those in rising rate camp and long financials. HYG looks fine.

GLD after looking so exciting with the breakout FAILED and back under the level. GDX was part of the clue, not breaking out above the early 2017 highs. SLV under all pivots with YP and 2HP rejection, and this was mentioned as a short idea in daily comments last week. The market may surprise me but if it does that is OK because cost will be minimal (barring nuclear explosion over the weekend but if that is a real worry i guess you should be in UVXY, SPY puts, GLD calls and cash). 

In some there was a case for top at SPX 2500 area if GLD maintained its breakout, TLT held its YP and XIV stopped at its YR3 and fell. But everything went the other way and bulls have the ball heading into seasonally strong Q4. 

VIX
Q: New quarterly close low. 
M: New monthly close low. 
W: Still above 7/17 close low 9.26 which according to my data is the all time weekly close low. 
W: Not sure we'll see that 2HS1 in the 8s. 

XIV
M: Held rising 10MA on the low. Some RSI and BB divergence but higher close high is bullish. 
W: Potential RSI div setting up but above the prior close highs is bullish.
W: Above YR3, testing 2HR1. Interesting level to watch for next week.

TLT
Q: Not terrible but below a falling 10MA.
M: Nearly 50% bounce from 2017H to 2016L.
W: Room to drop to lower BB area.
W: Two rally attempts above YP both failed. First time 2HP held as support. That is key area going forward. 

AGG
W: Testing YP, key level to watch next week.

HYG
W: doing fine. 

GLD
Q: Did not clear falling 20MA despite the chance to do so.
M: Oops! to the longs. The 100MA resistance near top of BB was part of exit decision 9/11. 
W: Under breakout area is bearish. 
W: 2HR1 rejection.

GDX
W: 2HR1 rejection, testing 2HP. Lack of breakout here part of GLD exit decision.

SLV
Hard to imagine a rebalance move into SLV for 2017 Q4 but market may surprise. Yup, i'm short based on 2HP and YP rejections.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX has been saying all clear for risk since 8/22, and XIV joined in from 9/11. Safe havens have been weaker recently, with GLD and GDX getting whacked from long term resistance (YR1 and 2HR1 respectively), and now both under SepPs. Last week TLT fell under its YP - fractionally, and not enough to say rejection yet - but could have held. AGG also under its SepP from 9/12. HYG confirming risk on, above all pivots and MAs.

About the only thing I can say here is XIV faced some resistance at previous weekly close high, and TLT 'might' recover its YP. But right now conclusion of this group of safe havens is bullish for risk assets. 

VIX
W: Back in single digits, with red line showing weekly close low.
W: Hard to imagine VIX seeing long term support near 8 but who knows.
D: Has been under all pivots on daily close all month.
VIX under all pivots on daily close all Sep, and under all MAs from 9/11. Still above 7/21-26 lows but these may test (daily close and price lows).

XIV
W: resistance at previous weekly close high.
W: Likely top zone from YR3 to possibly 2HR1.
D: Q3R1 but in play for 1 more week; above that YR1 and 2HR1 shown in red arrows.

TLT
W: Below YP, but with rally Friday doesn't quite have look of rejection. With level at 126.51 and close 126.20, i'm going to say too near to call.
D: Congested above rising 50MA and below falling 20MA. Still, could have held YP but didn't. 
TLT sum: Weaker last week by falling under its YP. With Friday's rally close just .31 away I don't not count that as definitive rejection, especially by look of weekly chart. Anything lower will look more like rejection, anything higher could recover YP.

AGG
Below SepP from 9/12 on. No bounce at D50MA, but still above D100.

HYG
Doing fine, above all pivots and MAs.

GLD W
W: Oops! Failed move above YR1 and high for year maybe in; also below 2HR1.
D: Under SepP.
D: Weak bounce from D50 so far. 
GLD W: So far high of year on SepR1 and YR1 fakeout with fall back under and rejection that also broke 2HR1. Currently under SepP. Exit call 9/11-13 after holding long from 7/11 looks obvious now, but it was a judgment call at the time. 

GDX
Also fell back under a long term resistance level 2HR1 and now under SepP. GDX failure at 2017 highs also part of decision to exit GLD.

Safe havens

Sum
Safe havens looked threatening to me a week ago: VIX was finding support at its D200MA, XIV below its monthly pivot, GLD breaking out above YR1, GDX moving well, TLT at highs for the year and HYG breaking down under Q3P. To be fair, VIX pivots had it right and stayed under 2HP and Q3P on all trouble spots since 8/22. 

Last week many of those concerns vanished 9/11-12 with XIV back above all pivots 9/11, AGG under its SepP 9/12 and HYG above all pivots also on 9/12.

GLD looks to have put in a key high with YR1 and Q3R2 rejection, but still above all pivots and rising 20MA so may come back. TLT also recovered its YP after a 1 day slight break. In general, safe havens most especially VIX and XIV confirmed risk on 9/11+. Exits are trickier than entries - see GLD for more detail - on 9/11 I said err on side of taking gains on GLD (buy rec from 7/11).

VIX
W: Above 2HP only 2 bars, 8/7 & 8/14; subsequent bars poked above but closed below.
D: Below all pivots on daily close from 8/22 on.
D: Watch the lower BB this coming week for tag and reversal.
VIX again showed why I start with this as supplemental indicator - back under all pivots 8/22 on daily close and remained that condition despite several pokes above. Notably, VIX fell back under 2HP and Q3P on 8/29, 9/5 and 9/8. For next move, wathcing lower daily BB for tag and reversal.

XIV
W: High on YR3, recent pullback lows on YR2.
D: Back above all pivots on 9/11. 

TLT
W: Another sizeable drop after poking outside weekly BB. Also near 50% bounce on the 2017 highs. 
W: Holding YP.
D: MACD negative, and under 10 and 20MA.
TLT: Near 50% from 2016 high to 2017 low on the recent hgh. YP holding and will be interesting level to watch this week. If stocks fade, this 'should' bounce.  

AGG
Under SepP 9/12 on.

HYG
Above all pivots 9/12 on.

GLD
W: Falling back inside BB after 2 bar overshoot.
W: YR1 rejection after 1 bar above.
D: Q3R2 rejection; SepR1 on the high.
D: Chart including usual MAs and "chandelier exit" system in red. 
GLD buy rec 7/11, sell rec 9/11-13. 
Sum: Falling back inside weekly BB and under YR1, but still above all pivots and all rising MAs could try to come back. Since 2011 high, overshoots of weekly BBs have been rare and most have been near key trading highs. Exits trickier than entries, but given YR1 rejection, weekly Bollinger band, Q3R2 level also in play, i erred on side of taking nice profits from the 7/11 buy. If following system of 2 bars under 10MA, then also out. Rising 20MA and Chandelier are still in the trade, and above all pivots also still in trade - case to be made for holding half. Monthly chart look to me settles any question - exit was the right decision with resistance at 2016 monthly close high and 100MA.

GDX
Stopped at 2017 Feb highs (red horizontal). 2HR1 rejection showed with red arrow.
Still above all pivots, slight break of D20.
 

Safe havens

Sum
Per pivots, the usually reliable VIX is undisturbed, below all pivots despite several chances to move above its 2HP / Q3P again last week. That said, 3 of 4 days last week looked like D200MA was starting to act as support, an interesting development.

But every other safe haven points to concerns for risk. XIV, bearish divergence to VIX, below its monthly pivot from 8/10 on and remained below its SepP from 9/1 on. TLT above all pivots with convincing hold of YP 9/1-5. AGG a great tell, above all pivots from 8/1 on. HYG, often doing a good job leading down before stocks, Q3P and SepP rejection on 9/8. 

GLD exploding higher and has been huge win for TPP, with a decent size buy rec on 7/11 and no exit suggestion thus far. Special metals post on 8/23 pointed out strength of GDX, which has gotten in gear for a 9%+ rally since that close. SLV bringing up rear, but also above all pivots from 8/28 on. While stocks have gone largely sideways, GLD, TLT and GDX have been great trades (in addition to the fast XIV short). 

Bottom line here is that safe havens have been speaking very loudly in August and continue to indicate concern for risk assets in September. If VIX moves above its 2HP / Q3P again at 12.28 and then above SepP 12.46, then they all shout together - reduce stock risk, hedge, or short. 

VIX
W: Could have closed above 2HP, but didn't.
D: No fear here, still below all pivots. 
D: D200MA starting to act as support! 
VIX sum: Still below all pivots gives points to bulls & risk assets. But interesting to see D200MA looking like support 3 of last 4 trading days.

XIV
W: Those levels look after the fact, but that's the whole thing. They aren't. From YR3 to YR2. 
D: XIV closed slightly under SepP on Friday 9/1, a bearish divergence compared to VIX. So far XIV winning. Still above Q3P, holding on several tests since 8/22.
D: After so many months of amazing up, below falling 10, falling 20, falling 50 and still slightly rising 100MA. This is what "rolling over" looks like on the daily 50MA.

TLT
W: Breaking out up. If higher, 50% from high to low in play at 130.15.
D: From late July, TLT showed clear buying on its 2HP and from there rallied above Q3P. Aug low bang on AugP, then to YP. After brief drop it tried again to clear the YP and did. 1 day slight pause, then higher, then a drop that held on 9/1, then soaring. TLT above all pivots! 2HR1 also 130 and change.
D: Adding moving averages and pivots only for clarity of trend - held 2HP and rising 100MA late July, then started to hold 10, 20 and 50MAs; slight break of YP but bang on rising 10MA; YP hold and rising 20MA on 9/1 low. This has been a partial buy from late July and potential add from August.

AGG
Part of the tell here, above all pivots from 8/1 on.

HYG
Often a good job at leading down, and stocks tend to follow. Note warning below SepP and Q3P, though recovered 2HP and still above that. 

GLD
W: Big breakout up. 
W: Cleared YR1 with ease.
D: After some sideways shuffle hear Q3R1, 8/25 definitive day holding D20, D10 and clearing the level. From there rocket up - no trouble at 2HR1, no rejection from YR1 and pivots have made this and daily hold from buy rec of 7/11. 5 daily bars from August outside the daily BB is sign of strength. We may start to see divergence highs this week.
 

GDX
D: After months of lagging gold, got going in a big way in last few weeks. Special blog post pointed out strength of metals 8/23. Currently above 2HR1.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX below critical 2HP / Q3P combo 12.28 from 8/22 on. Though 8/29 seemed threatening overnight and near the open, VIX fell most of NYSE session hours and back under the level from 11:00 am EDT on. If pro SPX traders were not worried about NKorea WWIII, then neither should you. 

XIV mostly mirrored the move, yet is fractionally under its SepP - so this means XIV is not fully confirming VIX under all pivots yet. 

Meanwhile, TLT and GLD above all pivots. It still seems odd to me to have market at highs and safe havens so strong. Watching GLD YR1 / Q3R1 combo and GDX 2HR1 for reaction. 

HYG has been giving good signals and I'm starting to include it in safe haven rotation, with a possible occasional glance at LQD as well. With higher dividend ETFs it is important to remember that these charts are not total return, but they still seem to respect the technicals here. HYG currently above all pivots, bullish for risk assets.

VIX
W: Not hard to imagine another visit into single digits.
D: VIX D below 2HP / Q3P combo on daily close from 8/22+. 8/29 seemed to be going the other way but dropped all day for session; back under critical levels about 11:00 EDT.
D: Green light below all pivots from 8/31 on. Bullish for risk with VIX below 12.28-46 which includes 2HP, Q3P and SepP.

XIV
W: High on YR3, pullback low near YR2.
D: Hard to see but SepP 83.87 so far resistance. So a bit of divergence between VIX and XIV here.

TLT
W: Still above YP.
D: Still above all pivots. 
D: Above all pivots - below 10MA and 400MA (400 not used as much but consider proximity to monthly 20MA). 
TLT sum: Still above all pivots and next move from YP will be interesting tell for market. 

AGG
Above all pivots but Q3R1 on highs and rejection from there. 

HYG
Pretty decent signals with 7/26-8/1 top and then similarly 8/18-22 low area. Currently above all pivots.

GLD
W: When everyone else was finally getting excited about GLD, The Pivotal Perspective is watching YR1 carefully to decide whether to lock in gains. 
GLD: Testing YR1 with no rejection so far; Q3R1 just above. Could also hold above rising MAs and/or SepP near 123.

GDX
Testing 1HR1 area.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX spiked twice in August, had highs near Q3R1 and dropped back under key 2HP / Q3P level of 12.23 twice. Currently out of danger zone but above AugP. It has paid to be defensive with VIX above 12.23. Similarly, XIV had big drop from YR3 area - as called. It held 2HP near lows and back above Q3P, but well off highs.

VIX and XIV are not signaling too much trouble for stocks, but not giving full green lights yet.

Other safe havens are speaking more loudly. TLT above all pivots this week, joining AGG above all pivots for all of August. GLD above all pivots from 7/26. Also starting to officially watch HYG, which is likely to signal trouble in rising rate environment and/or economic weakness. 

VIX
W: Spike to above 2HR1, then 1 bar on that level, next drop below 2HP and out of crisis.
D: Orange arrow at 2HP / Q3P combo. Still above AugP.
D: 2nd spike up was really a divergence high test considering Bollinger bands. Below falling D200, above rising D50.
Sum: VIX back out of crisis - 2HP / Q3P both at 12.23 - the last 4 trading days. Still above AugP.

XIV
W: High on YR3, recent lows near YR2.
D: Back above 2HP and Q3P; some resistance at AugS1. 

TLT
W: Above all pivots!
D: YP turning into support!
D: Rising 10, 20, 50 and 100 MAs; above a falling D200, flatish 400.

AGG
D: Interesting tip-off, above all pivots from 8/1 on.

HYG
Highs on Q3R1, then fast drop through Q3P and 2HP. Higher low 8/21 part of tell for stock bounce.  

HYG 2H chart with SPY in blue
HYG dropping in August several days before SPY followed. 

GLD
W: 2 small up bars invite selling.
D: Holding above Q3R1.
D: Above rising 10 and 20MA. Red line shows 2017 close high and Apr price high resistance.
GLD: Stalling near Q3R1 / gold price 1300 area and just not pushing through to real new highs yet.  

GDX
3rd time above 2HP has been charm.

SLV (new)
Holding above YP for last 8 trading days, though D200 and 2HP / Q3P still resistance.