The most important levels for the market

SPX, NDX and INDU are within striking distance of their yearly and half-year pivot levels. Due to the variance between the levels on the cash indexes, ETFs and futures, there is not just one level for each but a zone that is very important to watch going forward. 

In 2008, the INDU was able to backtest its YP in April after rallying from YS1 even, and we all know what happened after that. But if the YPs clear then it will be very likely the major low of the year is in. 

So it is also a good time to think about what can happen as the market approaches a critical level from underneath:

most bullish - soar through it
bullish - slight pause then clear
mixed bullish - pullback then try again
mixed bearish - overshoot by a few days then break
bearish - clear rejection
worst case - chop, ie above below above below, but let's hope that doesn't happen

SPX YP 2015, 1HP 2014
SPY YP 200.01, 1HP 199.81
ES YP 1988, 1HP 1988 (very close tag already!)

NDX YP 4373, 1HP 4373
QQQ YP 104.11, 1HP 104.11 (already cleared) 
NQ YP 4432, 1HP 4432

QQQ looks bullish but level maybe suspect due to 8/24/15 spike; I would weight the cash index and futures here.

INDU YP 17048, 1HP 16977
DIA YP 169.30, 1HP 168.60 (1HP tagged)
YM YP 16959, 1HP 16907 (1HP tagged)

Here are charts for those that tagged (or nearly tagged) levels - ES, DIA and YM.

Deutsche Bank vs The Pivotal Perspective

Continuing a series, the big banks vs The Pivotal Perspective. First in series here. 

Deutsche Bank was recommending gold on 2/26.

Admittedly I had some shuffle last week, but I was more concerned with taking profits on the YR1 area (larger red crosses) especially if stocks continued to show some strength above their FebPs. 

Here at The Pivotal Perspective we are buying key pivot status changes and looking to lock in gains at major resistance. Certainly we can hold if that clears and look for higher levels. But the DB buy after a 15% jump right at YR1 is quite frankly very late. 

Weekly strategy update

If you are following along, the first stock index buys I recommended all year (not safe havens) were on 2/12 on DIA and 2/16 on a few emerging market ETFs that were above FebPs. This was the right idea.

But then there was a shuffle last week as I thought add to bounce plan on on 2/23, cut those as apparent mistake 2/23, then back on 2/24 as safe havens were also out, in and out again. 

So let's say using 20 units as base (1 unit = 5% of portfolio)
3 TLT from 1/6 area, the adds 1/27-28 are what we've been shuffling around
3 GLD from 1/27 area, again the adds 2/4-5 are what have been shuffled
3 DIA from 2/12 looks good to hold, watching the YP
2-5 DIA / SPY adds from last week so far hold
2 FXI shorts slight under water today, to decide
1 BTCUSD long to hold
1 DXY long OR EUR short in today

Now what? If in all positions from the higher side there are 2 units available. Current positioning is 30% safe havens, 10% short; 25-40% long, 10% currency somewhat uncorrelated. This is a bounce playbook and somewhat neutral yet the first DIA buy was from a good area. 

It is harder to add stocks here because there is nothing near a pivot. But TLT is clearly dropping from its MarP, and this is the first time since Dec that we have seen negative action from a level. So we could reduce the TLT down a unit. Or further, and maybe much too cute, but we could shuffle the 15% long position to 10% long and 5% short, ie sell one and reverse as a hedge against the drop, and program a reverse back to long with a daily close above the pivot. 

The main point here is like reducing TLT a bit more than adding stock longs here. Most stock indexes are heading into major resistance (like DIA heading into its YP) and have a lot of distance from both MarPs and MarR1s as well. But TLT looks like rejection and we're very near a level. Probably the short hedge is too cute so let's say TLT reducing a notch to 2 units which is also a way of making the portfolio slightly more bullish without adding any stock longs. 

3:30 EST update
To make portfolio more skewed bullish steps would be:
Reduce TLT by 1 unit as noted above
Cut FXI shorts
Add on QQQ and hold above YP or SOXX and hold above 1HP
 

QQQ above the YP today, but given 8/24 discrepancies that is a bit suspect. SOXX also worthy of consideration since reclaiming its 1HP today. Even though short term overbought, good R/R for buy and hold above the 1HP. Then we see what happens at the YP / Q1P combo. 

Breadth

The Pivotal Perspective on breadth is to check pivots on the institutional broad indexes.

VTI weekly 1 break of YS1 then recovery.

VTI daily chart low on Q1S2 exact, recovered FebP and now above MarP. Like many indexes well above MarP and quite a ways from MarR1. Staying above Q1S1 as support is more bullish as well.

ACWI weekly low bang on YS1.

ACWI well above MarP, Q1S1 to watch, then MarR1. 

Currency trade idea update

Here is DXY above all pivots. The new MarP is hard to see because it is .01 from the QP so that means solid medium term support at 97.66-67. 

Meanwhile EURUSD below all pivots and dropping from Q1P.

Going back to DXY and adding R / S levels, first resistance is at the MarR1 near 100.


New March pivots

Quick scan of index ETFs above MarPs (to keep it simple just using ETFs here but if SPY is above then assume ES and SPX are too)

SPY QQQ DIA IWM VTI (5 USA mains)
IBB (fractionally, will be first to break), SOXX, XLF
XLE and CL while we are at it

EEM FXI PIN RSX EWZ (so cuts on those look too early)
EWJ EWG (though cash indexes better guide really)

HYG XIV

GLD well above as well, and GDX

But as I type TLT just below MarP literally the only thing besides EURUSD and some other currencies

More bullish for stocks if TLT fades under its MarP but let's see what happens. 
 

Oil

As everyone knows oil has played a very large role in the market. The 2/11 low was on its YS1 (1 day break and recovery) and since then stock indexes have been up as well. Oil is opening above its MarP (also like most stock indexes) so this is a part of the clue for the short term - does oil rally up to its MarR1? Or fall back to MarP?

CL1 contract, weekly chart with lows bang on 1HS1 then YS1 and since then 3 weeks in a row up.

CL1 contract, medium term levels. Opening well above the new MarP at 31.49 with first resistance 36.94 at the MarR1. 

CLJ6, MarP at 32.76 and MarR1 36.79. 

NKY and DAX

Just keeping tabs on two big QE supported markets. Charts do not include price action from today 2/29. 

From 2015 YR2 high area, to first break of 2HP and low on 2HS1, recovery; 2nd break, sharp drop under 2016 YP / 1HP, bounce attempt from YS1, down to low on 1HS2 near exact. So if bounce is higher then watching if YS1 acts as resistance or if it recovers.

DAX 2015 high on YR3, down to YP for the exact lows. 1 week break of 2016 YS1 with recovery and last week back above 1HS1 as well, barely. So, support zone YS1 / 1HS1 area. 

Monthly pivots

SPY, TLT and GLD monthly pivots only shown below with no other levels at all. Obviously this is not a standalone, but we can view this as a piece of the puzzle. Sometimes there is chop, sometimes crystal clear moves. We are looking for the latter while being alert for the former. Detailed comments for SPY:

2015
August - break, recovery, break, recovery, 3rd break was IT
September - started below, resistance several days, one recovery, next break tradable swing short
October - recovery on first trading day and off to races
November - exact low of month
December - started above, break, recovery, break and drop, slight recovery not clear, another drop, clear resistance 12/29

2016
January - opened below and slam
February - 1 day above, break and tradable short, then recovery and hold, bit higher. PS, the 2/11 low was on an S1 but for sake of clarity not showing the R / S levels on this chart. 

With that in mind we will have March pivots in play starting Tuesday. If SPY opens above it can hold as support and go higher, or break for a short. Similar idea for all other asset classes (TLT, GLD, oil, currencies, etc). Worst case in this method is when it chops which is why best positioning takes into account the other levels, as well as some supplemental factors like pivots on VIX. Then those who prefer can add RSI, volume, etc. 

Note TLT mostly above its monthly pivot for 3 months, with January and February of 2016 particularly strong. At some point we will see another test of the pivot.

GLD also completely above pivots for 2 months straight; but this was after a long period of being mostly below all pivots for quite some time. 


Weekly strategy sum

Basic idea: if the market is more bullish, that means more longs and fewer safe havens; if bearish then more safe havens and or shorts. Mostly I try to buy what is above pivots and avoid, hedge or short what is below pivots, but once in a while there is a good buy setup from support (or sell setup from resistance). 

So last week 3 of 5 USA main indexes lifted from YS1s (SPX, COMPQ, and NYA) as RTY continued its advance from the low of the year on 2/11 bang on YS2. And between 2/11-12 INDU / DIA / YM held its YS1 as well. This is bullish. 

Meanwhile, both main safe havens TLT and GLD jumped above their YPs and quickly rallied to YR1s, and then have consolidated for 3 weeks. Holding gains is positive, but failing to clear the major levels increases the chance of a larger drop.

If stocks continue to advance, we will probably see more pullback in the safe havens. If safe havens stay firm or even rally back to or above YR1 / 1HR1 levels, then stocks are likely dropping. 

We will also have March pivots to consider. All stock indexes are still below their YPs, 1HPs, and Q1Ps; MarchPs will likely vary. So any stock index that opens below or breaks its MarP is a short candidate, most especially any vehicle that did not trade above its FebP as others did. 

Similarly, safe havens are above their YPs, 1HPs and Q1Ps so if MarPs test and hold as support that is a good buy.

It will be more of a mixed market if more stock indexes hold or trade above MarPs while still remaining under the larger levels; and/or safe havens break below MarPs while above their YPs, HPs and Q1Ps. If markets are mixed it is OK to have more in cash, especially if you prefer not to be adjusting on each change of monthly levels (which happens a lot more frequently than the Q, H and Y levels).

If you saw the bullish developments between Wednesday and Thursday last week then you were probably back on the bounce playbook which is a more neutral stance; adding back longs on USA leaders DIA & SPY above the FebPs, and/or reducing safe havens as TLT and GLD that put in small blue bars under resistance with wicks on Thursday. 

The easier trade will be if stock indexes fall back under MarPs; clear shorts and back to bear playbook. But if the stock bounce continues, then we can consider longs above MarPs. We'll carefully watch what happens at the big levels like RTY / IWM / TF YS1s and especially INDU / DIA / YM YPs. I think the latter levels, if they tag, especially decides if correction over or bear market continues. 

See the USA main index post for the yearly and half-year levels. 

Lastly, I have a currency trade idea to watch: long DXY / short EURUSD. I prefer trades that surprise the market and I think it is consensus to be long DXY, but fact is DXY recovered its YP break, lifted from there as support; lifted from 1HP Friday and cleared its Q1P. It will likely open above MarP too. So that means probably above all pivots. Idea valid above the QP at 97.66 especially if it "looks like" support. EUR similar but in reverse with its QP at 109.58, especially if it "looks like" resistance. Daily charts with pivots only (no S or R levels) below to make this idea clear. Of course new MarPs on 3/1. We could also wait to see where those are and/or reaction.



USA main indexes

From last week: "I will do a separate post for the medium term levels to watch for the week, ie, the Feb pivots. If the market drops back down, then at least some of these YS1 / 1HS1 levels will be back in play."

And that is almost exactly where the lows were with huge holds of SPX YS1 1895 (low 1891), COMPQ YS1 4455 (low 4425), NYA YS1 9350 (low 9325), along with oil CLJ6 1HS1 30.77 (low 30.56). 

The reason I am watching cash index, ETF and futures levels is because (unfortunately) all of them seem to be in play. Last year I was more focused on the cash index levels (which worked great for NDX on 8/24); but my plan to aggressively buy SPX YS1 at 1833 in late September never triggered as the market held YS1 on the then current ES contract instead. That convinced me to include futures on all levels, not just medium term as I had been doing. And the ETFs have the benefit of free real time monitoring on TradingView as well as several other sectors & countries that are otherwise more difficult to track.

Also, due to pricing differentials on the 8/24/2015 spike low, pivots are more different this year across similar asset classes. Meaning SPX SPY ES should be about the same, but 2016 pivots vary more this year than most other years, so I want to watch which seems to have the most influence on the market. Verdict so far is the cash index yearly levels, but there are definitely some moves coming off the futures and the ETFs as well. 

Now on to this week's report on the 5 main USA indexes. All charts weekly with long term levels only. If you are new please see the FAQ for explanation. Levels sometimes look to good to be true (see low of year on the Russell vehicles) but in fact all levels established at the close of 12/31/2015 and fixed for the current period, so that means all of 2016 for yearly pivots and the first six months for first half pivots.

Sum
Several key indexes clearly lifting from YS1s is bullish, especially when those levels "look like" support. The indexes that directly tested and held major levels last week: SPX, COMPQ and NYA.

Also, RTY / IWM / TF continues the bounce from YS2 lows (all very near exact), which was basically the low in the market on 2/11. They now are testing the YS1 / 1HS1 area from underneath; a recovery of this area would be major bullish development as this has been the weakest main USA index for many months (so not including sectors like energy). A pause is mixed, a rejection of course is bearish. I think this is one of the most important levels to watch for the coming week.

If the market goes higher, then DIA, YM then INDU may test YPs as well. 

We'll also have new March pivots on 3/1 and the first thing I will scan is whether any asset is above or below these levels. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX clearly lifting from its YS1 last week which is bullish. If the market goes any higher it will is possible that YPs will test on the ES (which will happen before a test of SPX or SPY). 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX continues the bounce back above YS1; COMPQ held YS1 as support last week like SPX; QQQ tested its YP! And NQ also lifted back above its YS1.
The differential between QQQ and others is due to 8/24/2015 spike low and very annoying. I won't go back to full bullish with QQQ above YP, but could add to bullish considerations if above and bearish if it is rejected. 

INDU / DIA / YM
All of these very clearly held YS1 and 1HS1 areas near the lows, which is why I recommended the buy on 2/12. And soon a very critical test of the YPs could be coming up. Right now INDU / DIA / YM are the market leader of these 5 indexes, so I will change gears significantly if these clear the YP / 1HP area. If rejected, however, then it looks like other bear market years testing the YP from underneath after a bounce, and this could and should lead to another significant leg lower. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Note the lows of the year on YS2s across the board; now all 3 testing YS1 / 1HS1 area. Recovery would be very bullish for the market, so this is one of the most important things to watch in the coming week.  

2015-16 can be summed up this way: YP hold, YR1, attempt to clear YR1, rejected, down to YP, chop with several breaks & recoveries, then sharp drop to 2016 YS2. So, 2015 YR1 to 2016 YS2. 

NYA / VTI 
NYA also clearly lifting from YS1 / 1HS1 combo which is bullish; VTI already above. 

Weekly strategy review

This year pivots have worked amazingly well, but the past week had a bit of frustration as can happen with any method. Or perhaps my application was off. Main point was to be more long and less short and/or fewer safe havens if the market (primarily referring to the main USA indexes) was strong; and less long, more short and full safe haven positions if week.

I let the FebPs on SPY / ES / SPX and DIA / YM / INDU along with NYA / VTI decide strong or weak. That was the pesky part as Monday jumped above on all 8 of these which I thought was good enough for more bullish positioning as above; only for Tuesday to break on ES, SPX, INDU (slight), NYA and VTI, combined with a VIX sell signal so back to bearish; only to open lower Wednesday but come roaring back from CLJ6 1HS1 and SPX YS1 near exact, so again shifting more bullish Thursday. Using NYA to confirm longs (as happened Monday) and VIX as stock sells (Tuesday) have worked far more often than not so I won't be to sore about the minor chop this past week. 

In the larger scheme of things this was just some shuffle and a couple minor dings in an fantastic year. 2016 basic moves (all very well documented on this site, and posts searchable in the FAQ page in the search tool):

1/4-7 cut USA longs from early October
1/6 buy TLT
1/6 SPY target 186
1/7 "bear for real if NDX below 4373" and full defensive mode, whatever that means for you, was correct approach
1/20-22 stock index turn but not a big buy, SPY target achieved and good cover if short
1/22-28 adding TLT above YP
1/25+ GLD buy, adding 2/4-5
2/12 turn alert and DIA buy (also good cover if still short)
2/16 RSX EWZ EEM buys for quick pop
2/16 BTCUSD buy

So the latter part of February if following along:
Reduced add portions on TLT and GLD, put them back on, then out again Thursday if paying attention (not saying all these moves correct, just how it seemed at the time);
Cut the RSX, EWZ, EEM positions for small gain;
Added SPY or DIA on 2/22, small loss next day; 
Added XLF / QQQ / FXI shorts 2/23, then took USA shorts off for scratch.
Added SPY and/or DIA longs back 2/25.

Market in digestion range after the power moves of the first 6 weeks which is to be expected, so maybe adjustments seem like too much work. Perhaps. Just calling it how i see it. 

 

HYG

High yield has been one of the big problems afflicting the market since summer 2015, but take a look at the HYG weekly chart below with long term levels. Yup, earlier low bang on 1HS1 and recent low on YS1 exact, with a health recovery since then. This adds to a bullish consideration that a major low in the market is in. 


Timing model update

I've written about the 4th component of my total market view, timing, here and here. 

Per the most recent post from 2/19, "we are entering a wide period where we "should" see more volatility, starting as early as today 2/19 but increasingly likely 3/1-11, then possibly continuing into 3/23. Predicting volatility now seems like an obvious point but let's see what happens especially in that March window. Bias is that indexes slide back down and bust the recent lows and we see some moments of real panic. 

Second in Model B (unrelated to A system), the next turn date (ie date series after 2/11-15) is 3/9. So far the turn window areas this year (1/19, 2/11-15) have both been lows. At some point one of these will turn into a high, but with stocks below all pivots, safe havens jumping, and expecting volatility I am again shooting for a low area there."

I keep to these conclusions. This means a bearish short term top is as early as today or at late as 2/29; if 3/1+ is bearish stocks and/or oil then we could see a very sharp drop into 3/9-11 then continuing into 3/23. But, the market is doing OK as key indexes held FebPs and are on track to open above MarPs as safe havens fade a bit. A bullish trading top extends to 3/3-4. Either way I am expecting a top in this window, 2/26-3/4, then a drop. 

But I'll let March pivots guide the positioning. Given bias, i will recommend a pretty sharp bear playbook if we see stock indexes below MarPs ie, nearly all in safe havens and short, perhaps saving just 3 DIA longs very near the low from 2/12. But not until then, and if MarPs hold as support for stocks then we can continue the bounce playbook currently about neutral 30% safe havens, 10% shorts, 40% stock longs, a bitcoin and some cash on sidelines. 

Currency trade idea

There is something interesting going on in DXY / EURUSD today. 

DXY looks like it is rejected from Q1P and breaking 1HP 97.27 for the second time this year. Second breaks are often definitive. 

Meanwhile EURUSD the mirror image is holding its Q1P and reclaiming HP 1.1031, again for the second time this year. 

So pick one or both 1-2 units short DXY long EURUSD but valid only with daily close below DXY HP and above EURUSD HP and that is the stop level on daily close from here. These could be very long term holds depending on what happens at the YPs.

Sentiment

As time permits I've been doing a weekly post on sentiment. This is not related to pivots at all but fits into my complete market view which includes technicals (pivots primarily, with other tools), fundamentals (requires a Bloomberg), timing, and sentiment.

Of the 4 measures I track, 2 were at significant bearish extremes near the 2/11 key low. I didn't quite write it up correctly at the time, but knowing this factored into the buy recommendations on 2/12 and 2/16, the only stock index long positions I have suggested this year that weren't safe haven positions. 

Sum
Sentiment continues to improve across 3 of 4 measures, with only AAII managers reducing exposure slightly from last week. Keep in mind that severe bearish extremes were reached on ISEE and AAII individuals the week of the 2/12 lows, so it would be normal for some improvement as the market stabilizes. The question is what is too much.

Again not much edge to this report; if the market breaks down I suspect we will again see extremes. Or another thing to watch for would be extremes without the market breaking, a potentially bullish setup. Or lastly, a rally with disbelief. Right now sentiment seems appropriately improved for a more stable market; but I think put-call near the low side for the year, and AAII individuals highest bull reading since last November, are both a bit optimistic.

Put-call
Here's a weekly chart with a simple 10MA. As you can see the spikes were last August to October and then a much smaller spike up into mid January. The end of December finished at relative lows. The only reason I can think why 2016 is so much lower is that a significant amount of selling has been done and fewer positions to protect. Right now no real edge or even relative extreme.
 

The daily chart has been moving lower; much closer to lows than highs for the year. So a lot of people think drop is probably done. 

ISEE data from 2005
Daily readings 2/16 had a huge daily spike which was too much optimism; recently 2/23 was below 75, not extreme. it would be normal to see a high or not much higher post 2/16 given the reading.
10MA 72% percentile, not even low end anymore (80%+)
20MA 88% percentile, low end
50MA 97% percentile

This makes sense; the shorter term readings are moving up after extremes reached 2 weeks ago. But at 72% we cannot say too optimistic; that was just 1 spike day on 2/16. 

AAII mgr data from mid 2006
84% percentile, up from 75% last week.

Lower side but not extreme. 

AAII individual data from 2005
bulls 76% percentile, down from 89% last week. this is obviously nowhere near a high # of bulls, but oddly is the highest reading  since 11/26/2015.
bears 43% percentile, big drop from 66% then 92% before that. 
bull bear spread, 62% percentile, down from 80% and then 97% extreme before that.
bull 8 week avg still 99% percentile

Like the others, a shift up from extremes reached 2 weeks ago. I would say this is a bit too bullish but sometimes the AAII individuals can be right as they were quite bearish last spring as the market was topping. So the individual data can be a bit tricky to interpret, but even this crowd will be wrong on the absolute turns like massive bearish extremes near both key lows of this year. 
 

China

The Shanghai Comp dropped -6% yesterday and USA stocks are shrugging this off. A few more drops like that however, could be catalyst for USA breakdown. 

This is the closest index available on TradingView, what they are calling Shanghai Class A. Note, this doesn't include yesterday's bar as the index is EOD data which kicks in USA time. So really it should be about -6.4% lower than 3038 or roughly 2845. This places it well under the 1HS1 and looks like we should see YS1 test at 2652.

Here's the daily; again picture the price near 2845. Really this had huge rejection from FepP without even tagging the level. There is an ETF for this (inverse Shanghai CHAD) but I cannot recommend a big position after -6% in the base index. But maybe 1 unit if looking to add on the short side. It is a not good entry at all but the worst downtrends can be forgiving in that regard (like buying the strongest uptrends). There also is a regular (not inverse) ETF ASHR that mirrors Shanghai and updates in real time, but due to some distribution gap we cannot use the pivots on it this year. 

I was talking about shorting FXI the last few days and so far this is moving in the right direction. I noticed that several emerging market ETFs had poked above FebPs while FXI had not. 

FXI is still trying to hold its 1HS1 but note this has already broken on a weekly close 3 bars and the last closed bar (small blue) looks weak. If this goes we could see YS1 or lower. 

And here's the daily FXI with medium term levels. Of all the other hedge / short vehicles I started mentioning last November (EEM, PIN, RSX and EWZ) it is the one that has remained below all pivots since that time. And therefore the one you could still have shorts, or if not, the first choice for a global short. 


TLT and GLD update

The Pivotal Perspective has been all over the safe haven rallies because it was crystal clear using this method that both were making positive moves from important levels as stocks rolled over. Summary posts are here for TLT and here for GLD. 

Although I did say taking some gains from the more recent adds (TLT adds 1/25-28, then GLD adds 2/4-5) I encouraged to put them back on per bearish playbook. So we are in management phase of full positions on these. Now what?

TLT weekly chart with long term levels shows clear lift above 1HP, clear big high volume jumpabove YP, which acted as support from there; pause at 1HR1, tag of 1HR2 / YR1 area but maintaining pretty well. So the big issue is whether that's it for the year or if TLT will clear the YR1 and go for the 2015 highs or maybe higher. A simple long term strategy could be to hold above the 1HR1 near 128 that can act as support.

I don't like to see 2 smaller blue bars in an uptrend especially with wicks, but let's see how the bar closes and how stock indexes react to their FebPs from here. 

Here's the daily chart with medium term levels. You can see the launch above the QP and JanP, then Q1R1 turned into support, Q1R2 turned into support, but still struggling at Q1R3. OK, maybe Q1R2 will continue to hold as support. Also, in a few trading days, we'll have the March pivot which will probably act as support. Per my bias I think this is a full hold but it will be much easier if stocks indexes reject their FebPs. 

GLD was making an equally clear move a few weeks behind TLT. GLD did try to jump above HP & YP in 2015, but the difference at the time was that stock indexes were still above their YPs while this time they had crumbled. Knowing that is why I was really thinking the move was for real, in addition to seeing DXY weakness at the time. 

GLD too has quickly reached its YR1 / 1HR1 combo. So again we have the same issue - is that it for the year? Or will those levels clear and hold as support? So far just a pause, no red and looking like it could clear - and would be an easy hold for higher targets. 

Here's GLD D with medium term levels. Similar jump above Q1P, and was already above JanP at the time. No damage from Q1R1, a jump above that. Now it is consolidating under Q1R2 but not too much damage. 1 day rejection met with buying today. So I also think this is full hold and let's use March levels to held guide the position as well as keeping an eye on the big YR1 / 1HR1 combo. 

If you added GDX for kick above its YP, that is doing fine and looks like it should test its YR1 / 1HR1 combo as well with even a Q1R3 nearby all 20.20 to 20.42.

4:25 EST update.

A much different look at the close on each. TLT small blue bar with rejection from a monthly resistance level.

GLD especially poked above but did not close above YR1, potentially bearish if any lower tomorrow.