Global indexes

Sum
China and Japan are leading down. NKY, Shanghai Comp and FXI already below all pivots. Any lower and EEM also will join them, and PIN (India) not far off. Last year's real dogs EWZ and RSX are doing much better in comparison, both above YPs, due to strength in oil. 

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Typically I won't have time for this, but I thought it would be interesting to look outside the USA indexes for more context. First let's start with key developed market indexes, DAX and NKY.

DAX is below all pivots except the Q2P. It has been under its long term levels all year. 

NKY also has been under long term levels all year, and again below all pivots. This makes NKY among the first choice for shorts, for those who can trade this index directly (ie EWJ, which is still above MayP and Q2P). 

Shanghai Comp while so much in the media is down near lows, and again below all pivots since 5/6. 

FXI is also under all pivots. 

EEM high of year is on the YP near exact. Oh and the low close was on the 1HS1. Yup, pivots on the big turns! Testing Q2P; if that breaks, below all pivots. 

PIN (India ETF) below long term levels all year, and failed near testing 1HP. Looks like another test of Q2P on the way, if that goes then below all pivots. 

RSX Russia above its YP due to strength in oil, but now 2nd time below MayP. We'll see what happens. 

Similarly EWZ Brazil above its YP, but another break of MayP makes near term move less clear. 

NKY and DAX

These were quite obviously weaker compared to the USA this year. This isn't just a hindsight point, as I have been saying it all March. 

NKY in fact did break YS1 fractionally on 3/31 before the big plunge the next day. But unless you are an institution it is unlikely that you are trading NKY directly, unless you swing / position trade via futures. Anyway, this idea worked whether you shorted the break on 3/31 close or even if you entered EWJ short on 4/1 below all pivots, it is still a nice move today and helping limit the damage on the drop.

DAX also breaking under all pivots today, although EWG is just on its Q2P now. Tough call. DAX 'should be' the underlying but EWG is the vehicle with currency factored in.

If the last portfolio moves were 2 units short EWJ, 2 long TLT both 4/1 1-2 oil short 4/4, then portfolio is mostly all in with the other DIA, SOXX, remaining GLD/GDX, small EEM, possibly small QQQ longs. This is a case for margin too, allowing for 20 units (roughly how I am imagining things) with margin chance up to 25 for hedging or max long if everything was bullish (which it isn't). Point is you can consider DAX / EWG as short but Japan beat it to punch. If EWG breaks under its Q2P then there is really no debate, it can be added as a short. 

NKY W looks pretty bad with failure of YS1 level. Opens door to re-test of lows or YS2. 

Although NKY also fractionally broke YS1 twice in March, the headache free setup was shorting when it was also below the new Q2P and AprP.

Here's is EWJ, OK not perfect entry right at highs but worst case should be scratch trade at this point. Entry 4/1 or even 4/2 plenty of time below all pivots. Ideal move down to Q2S1 / 1HS2 near the lows. 

DAX also relatively weak bounce compared to USA indexes.

Note, does not include 4/5 data; broke under all pivots today.

Here is EWG trying to hold the Q2P. I think if already in the recent shorts might as well wait for clear move below the pivot. 

NKY and DAX

Sum
While both indexes participated in the global risk rebound from 2/11-12 lows, both have exhibited relative weakness compared to USA and other oil related emerging market ETFs. Both remain far under long term pivots; NKY did not even reach MarR1, and DAX traded slightly above MarR1 for 2 days and today has rejected that level.  

Relative weakness make these attractive short candidates, or from institutional or investing perspective current under-weights. As a short, though, NKY is sitting just above YS1 so that is a much better setup on a break. We can also watch to see where price is in relation to new Q2 pivots. 

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NKY continues to stabilize above its YS1 / 1HS1 levels of  16766 and 16974 respectively. Above this helps the global bullish picture. Below makes NKY an attractive short candidate. 

These levels only have a few days left. NKY like almost all global risk spent all of March above its monthly pivot; but unlike other indexes, did not reach an R1 level. That is comparatively quite weak.

DAX broke and recovered its YS1 / 1HS1 levels as part of the global rebound but has not doine much the last 2 weeks and remains well under long term pivots. 

Due to DAX relative weakness, it will be closer to testing Q2Ps on any further drop. But we'll see where price is relative to the pivot in the new quarter. 

NKY and DAX

Sum
Both relatively weak compared to USA leaders. NKY could be short if below YS1 level 16766. DAX probably second choice compared to NKY but can use MarR1 9981 as short level.

NKY W actually slight break under YS1 16766. Bearish below. 

NKY the one of the few major indexes that did not reach a MarR1, relatively very weak. USA leaders ran up to MarR2!

DAX doing better than NKY, with recovery of YS1 combo, but much weaker advance than USA leaders.

DAX reached MarR1 but no daily close above.

NKY and DAX

Sum
The Pivotal Perspective is that both of these are much weaker than USA indexes, especially the current leaders INDU, SPX and NDX. While these three have recovered or in the case of NDX nearly recovered long term pivot levels, both NKY and DAX remain far below. While both have traded above the MarP this month, neither has exceeded its MarR1 level, again in contrast to many many USA and other global indexes. Relative weakness puts both on the short watch list going forward. 

NKY low of year on 1HS1, rebounded above YS1 / 1HS1 combo. More bullish for that to hold. 

Low also on Q1S3, and above monthly pivot this month but that is it. NKY did not even reach a MarR1 and a far distance from re-claiming any long term pivot. So NKY really still quite weak compared to most USA indexes which is the opposite of last year (NKY big rally while USA flat.)

DAX bounce back above YS1 and 1HS1 but hasn't gotten far. 

This is a weak high right on MarR1. It will not take much for DAX to again drop below all pivots. 

NKY and DAX

Sum
The bottom line here is 2016 so far is weaker for NKY and DAX compared to USA indexes, which is a change from 2015. While USA has rallied to major long term levels, DAX and NKY are not even close. If the market turns lower, these two will be back under all pivots well before most USA indexes and thus can be placed on short watch list. 

NKY just above YS1. So far exactly low on 1HS2 and bounce high on 1HS1 (both green dot levels).

Like most risk assets NKY is below Q1P but above MarP, after being below monthly pivots (orange dots) for most of December, January and February. Unlike several USA indexes, however, NKY is not even close to recovering any long term pivot level.

DAX above YS1 / 1HS1 combo not even close to recovery like USA.

NKY and DAX

Just keeping tabs on two big QE supported markets. Charts do not include price action from today 2/29. 

From 2015 YR2 high area, to first break of 2HP and low on 2HS1, recovery; 2nd break, sharp drop under 2016 YP / 1HP, bounce attempt from YS1, down to low on 1HS2 near exact. So if bounce is higher then watching if YS1 acts as resistance or if it recovers.

DAX 2015 high on YR3, down to YP for the exact lows. 1 week break of 2016 YS1 with recovery and last week back above 1HS1 as well, barely. So, support zone YS1 / 1HS1 area. 

NKY and DAX

I haven't spent too much time on Japan or EU indexes although certainly they are not to be ignored. There are a few reasons for this: 1) TradingView were i have scripts for pivots has these cash indexes on data delay, and unlike USA indexes the ETFs are quite different in structure due to the currency impact, and 2) these are quite correlated with USA indexes, and I think 2015 where USA was mostly flat and these two QE markets were up was an outlier year. 

But since these markets still have supportive central banks they are probably worth watching for larger understanding of the markets. For anyone actually positioning in these assets, of course currencies will impact as well so useful to watch pivots on the DXY, EURUSD and USDJPY.

Let's check with my usual approach of long term weekly charts then a closer view on the daily. NKY cash made it to YR2 in 2015 but could not maintain gains and eventually had very clear rejection like everything else in summer 2015. After a comeback, NKY opened below the YP / 1HP combo and had sharp drop, bounce attempt at the YS1 / 1HS1 like most other vehicles, but then a plunge to much lower lows down to 1HS2, though YS2 remained untagged. Keep in mind most USA indexes held YS1 / 1HS1s, and only RTY / IWM was down to YS2 area. All charts are showing data as of 2/19 close. 

Here are medium term levels only, meaning quarterly and monthly levels. You can see clear rejections at the Q1P and then at the FebP. The low was very near Q1S3.

And here are long term and medium term levels combined. The cluster of pivots on the open was a clear cut, hedge or short; and the rejection below the FebP was about as clear as it gets as well. Note a combo of pivots on the low, 1HS2 and Q1S3. 

Sum: unlike most USA indexes NKY is still below YS1, and this level may continue to act as resistance. Also unlike USA indexes that are reclaiming FebPs as I type, it is very unlikely that NKY will change pivot status this month. 

DAX made it up to YR3 last year, and lows were bang on the YP in January, August and September. The 1HP recovered but then broke again, like many risk assets DAX opened below its YP / HP in 2016. So far one week below the YS1 and recovery, but needs to clear 1HS1 to confirm strength.

Daily chart with medium term levels, still below all pivots. 

And now combined. Holding YS1 large green crosses is the most important thing to watch at this point.