USA main indexes

Sum
Last week:  2 strong, 1 middling, 1 weaker, 1 TBD -.
This week: 3 strong, 1 mixed, 1 TBD +.

So positive status change in the tech set going from middling to strong, joining INDU and SPX already there. RTY small caps remain in long term downtrend but above both medium term levels, so from weaker to mixed. NYA, getting "TBD" designation looked like pause semi-rejection from levels last week but came back to close near the levels with more chance of clear, getting a +.

Still, bullish status shifts in 3 of the 5 main USA indexes and a major change for NDX/COMPQ/QQQ/NQ to all be back above YPs, the first time since 1/5/2016 for COMPQ to be above its YP. 

The levels to watch in the coming week are still the NYA YP / HP combo at 10302 / 10228 respectively.

The other thing that is a factor is high daily chart RSIs.
SPY RSI high 4/1 69.25
QQQ RSI high 4/1 70.33
DIA RSI high 4/1 73.12, bullish to be above its 3/18-19 highs
IWM RSI high 3/7 69.87
NYA RSI high 3/18 67.88

A strong market can ignore overbought readings as the Dow has already done so far, but as more indexes join in overbought territory the more likely move is a slowdown to a range with a quick shakeout to work off the overbought condition. 

SPX / SPY / ES
Above all pivots, bullish; and not near any major resistance area. Huge support with YP 1HP Q2P and AprP all nearby. On SPX the cluster is 1980-2023. Major resistance is up at the YR1, 1HR1 and Q2R1 area all 2151-2163. The near term concern is the high daily chart RSIs.

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
This was a huge week for the tech set as NDX lifted from its YP, COMPQ cleared YP for the first time since 1/5 this year, and NQ also jumped above its YP for the second time confirming the QQQ move earlier. QQQ different structure due to 8/24/2015 spike so I haven't really been considering that status of above its YP as fully real - now it is though. 

INDU / DIA / YM
These continue to look great especially with DIA / YM daily charts ignoring overbought readings and continuing to power up. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Mixed condition. Still well below long term levels YP and 1HP, decently above Q2P and above AprP as well. Still can be considered as possible USA long hedge against DIA, SOXX, possible SPY/QQQ longs in coming weeks.

NYA / VTI
The NYA is the only "but" of this week with clear stall at the YP / HP combo. But bang on the level and may clear next week. The daily chart shows that drops were met with enthusiastic buying. Watch this NYA YP HP area next week. VTI is already above but that is a slightly different index; still as a very broad market ETF it helps to be above. 

Quarterly and Monthly charts

3 days left in Q1 so an interesting time to check quarterly and monthly charts. For today let's check the USA mains and I'll try to include others of interest (TLT, GLD, oil, emerging markets) in the next few days. 

On all charts:
Standard Bollinger bands and simple moving averages
10MA = light blue
20MA = orange
50MA = purple
200MA = black

Sum
SPY Q chart bullish but possible RSI divergence, M chart better above 20MA
QQQ bullish with resistance at 2000 quarterly close high, Q chart RSI still overbought!
DIA looks best (and not just saying that due to earlier buys; already nicely above M chart 20MA and RSIs more room to move up)
IWM Q chart does not look bad, M chart some question
NYA Q chart could be stronger, overall better above 2007 close high, M chart congested

SPY Q chart held low areas of 2014 Q2, 2014 Q4, and 2015 Q3 which looks good for a move to the top of the range at least. Also holding a nicely rising 10MA as support, in fact 1 close near the level and otherwise above on close. All this looks bullish.

But the concern here is the clear divergence on RSI. RSI was 75.5 on the 2014 Q4 bar and 75.7 on the 2015 Q1 quarterly close high. 2015 Q4 was 69 for the clear lower high and with 3 trading days to go it is 68.6. Will RSI rocket to overbought territory again, or will there be sellers into any further strength? Something to keep in mind in the weeks ahead. I'm not sure how many SPY points it would take to get RSI from 68.6 to 70, but it isn't that much. 

SPY M chart reached RSI 50 buy area on the lows and currently testing its 20MA. Very simple, in addition to the pivots we like to consider, it is more bullish above that level but bearish if the bounce stops here. See May 2008 for a bearish example, and July 2010, November and December 2011, June 2012 for several bullish examples. 

QQQ is holding a sharply rising 10MA as support but fell back under the 2000 quarterly close high. Note this level has been resistance for 4 quarters of the last 5. Bulls have a shot, but stronger above that level. Quarterly RSI still overbought but trending lower.

QQQ M chart broke the 20MA but bottomed on the lower Bollinger band twice. More bullish above the 20MA.

DIA Q chart nearly tested its 20MA twice. RSI only 66 which has more room to move up. This chart looks pretty good. 

DIA M is above its 20MA and that is another reason to hold the longs that were purchased below that level. 

IWM Q chart looks pretty good too, holding its rising 20MA and RSI near uptrend buy area at 56. If lower then 2007 & 2011-12 high areas along with 50MA next big support area. 

IWM M chart back above rising 50MA, but lows that far outside the BB may have to test. 

NYA Q chart is holding the 20MA but would look better with a higher close than last quarter. Possible resistance at the 2007 close high area. 

NYA M chart in congestion zone between rising 50MA and falling 20MA. 

USA main indexes

Sum
Last week 2 strong, 1 middling, 1 weaker, 1 TBD.

This week 2 strong, 1 middling, 1 weaker, 1 TBD -. (This means still TBD with a slight negative.)

NYA is a bit weaker than last week, because it clearly stalled at its 1HP level; but due to the smaller range selling bar, this doesn't look like rejection quite yet. Not much status change overall. 

To watch next week: most immediate is NDX YP at 4373, because breaking this would turn tech index group from "middling" to weak and join Russell group below long term levels. Then we are also watching NYA because any lower than last week's low will start to look more like rejection than pause. And on Friday new Q2Ps and of course AprPs are in play. 

Due to the rally and likely close it is quite possible that several indexes will be in quite mixed condition heading into Q2 - like RTY group could be below YP and HP but above Q2P and AprP. If so then there is no reason to jump in willy nilly. Soon enough there will be a very clear setup. If some cash on the sidelines then we are looking to put that to work on the best setup and also impacts the portfolio in the desired manner (ie more or less long risk, more or less long bonds, more or less long oil, gold, etc). Above 2 below 2 pivots not great setup; better when you get at least 3 on your side. Or as we did from 2/12 on, we can watch for recovery of monthly levels after the chance of a big turn which means YS1s holding too.  

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX W chart still looks quite good with small red bar and holding long term levels as support. Bullish as long as that holds. SPY and ES similar, showing Q1P as support. All 3 variations above all pivots!

The resistance level on the high was a MarR2 reached on SPX nearly reached 3/21 and then tagged with a lower close on 3/22 (See second chart below.) Usually monthly levels are not enough for a major top, although current quarterly levels are far above. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX barely holding YP 4373 so that is a level to watch in the coming week. COMPQ still under its YP, as is NQ. QQQ above - what? This is due to 8/24/2015 spike and discrepancy of futures to ETF pivots. It does look in play though, as does NQ YP. Pesky. Still, conclusion is tech is mixed / weaker compared to SPX and INDU. NDX breaking 4373, should that happen, would be bearish development as 3/4 main tech indexes failing at YPs.
 

INDU / DIA / YM
These charts still quite healthy with INDU W small red bar in middle of tremendous up. Well above long term pivots. You will also note INDU and DIA held YS1 exact without breaking (current YM chart looks like break, but different on YM H contract at the time) and this was why I went with DIA on the long side 2/12. These continued to lead the other main USA indexes on the way up so easy choice for long adds.

RTY / IWM / TF
While above YS1 / 1HS1 area, still lagging considerably behind the other USA indexes and not nearly close to reclaiming a long term pivot level. These may open above Q2Ps however, something to watch.

NYA / VTI
NYA W does have a red bar rejection from the 1HP which is some negative. However, it is smaller range than the last blue bar and so looks more like a pause than rejection at this point. VTI looks above long term levels - barely - but side with NYA here. Even if NYA comes back and exceeds the recent high (IF), it will be running into the YP. 

USA main indexes

Sum
INDU looks fantastic, SPX also decent; we are now thinking about YR1 targets as long as those maintain above their YP levels. The tech indexes NDX COMPQ etc are lagging. RTY remains well under major pivots despite its huge rally. NYA has justed reached its 1HP level (did not clear) with YP just above, although VTI looks better in this regard. 

2 indexes INDU and SPX strong, above all pivots
1 middling (COMPQ and NQ still below YPs, with NDX slightly above, QQQ above)
1 weaker (IWM below YP, 1HP and Q1P)
1 toss up (NYA below long term levels, VTI above)

The more indexes above pivots the better. I think some pause is more likely. There is also the matter of March R2 levels reached on INDU, DIA, YM and TF (RTY futs). If any higher next week then we'll see SPX, SPY and ES MarR2s too and that could also be a place for a short term top. 

Similar format as last few weeks. Cash index weekly chart with long term levels only; then daily charts with all levels on ETFs and futures. 

SPX / SPY / ES
We can start to think YR1s at SPX 2163 as long as the YP area holds at 2016. Near term clear resistance at the MarR2s at SPX 2054, SPY 206.03 and ES 2056. There is also the 2015 close level (red line on SPY chart) which would add to selling pressure if the market drops back under this on Friday. In addition, ES RSI is fully overbought at 70, SPY reached 68, and SPX 69. Mostly likely event is some move to work off the near overbought condition; ie mild pullback or some consolidation phase. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX just above YP 4373, but less impressive. COMPQ still below, along with NQ too. QQQ is above due to the discrepancy from the 8/24/2015 spike low. Basically tech is lagging here (partially due to IBB impact). I suppose the NQ YP level could be used as possible short area, but NDX is above its cash level and I think there are better choices elsewhere. If NDX falls back under its YP with the look of rejection, then OK that could be a short especially with VXN confirmation.
 

INDU / DIA / YM
Wow does that INDU W chart look fantastic. Ideal high of year 18727 at the YR1. DIA just aboev its MarR2 with YM bang on it. With RSIs that high, it may be a place to take gains on the last adds and then look for a pullback. See this week strategy sum for more ideas. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Impressive percentage move off lows, and bullish to recover YS1 / 1HS1 area, but still under YP, HP and Q1P. Futs tagged the MarR2 level, although more to go on cash index and IWM.

NYA / VTI
And there is the NYA bang on its 1HP 10228 and still under its YP 10302. Back under its Q1P 10160 in additional to returning red on the year would be a bearish trigger. VTI looks better; a slightly different construction along with 8/24/2015 influence on pivots. I am not sure which to weight here so let's say toss up. 

Breadth

There has been a lot of recent buzz about the breadth of the recent rally; the popular McClellan Oscillator was the highest in 7 years. Yes, there has been big buying in the small caps with the Russell vehicles RTY / IWM / TF futs rallying all the way from YS2 to above YS1 (ps, if you haven't seen already, the YS2 was the low of the year, along with INDU YS1, CL / oil YS1, and HYG YS1). So  the USA market is definitely in a stronger position with RTY / IWM above YS1 / 1HS1 combo 103-104. 

And while other breadth tools like advance/decline, advance/decline volume difference, and probably throw in other things you like such as new highs new lows, etc, all looks good here, I am going to sound a cautionary note. NYA and ACWI have not reclaimed any longer term pivots. This is where a rally could stop cold, ie only the leader INDU jumping above, while SPX fractionally above without the "look of support", NDX failing to clear, and the institutional broad indexes stopping right on or below major long term pivot clusters.

While I am more open to a bullish scenario with the USA leader INDU above its YP, if none of the others follow on their cash indexes then that is more likely to fade. Additionally, daily and weekly RSIs are at the highest levels in months if not longer, and perhaps some would say a sign of strength, but the rally more likely  spent and the broad indexes are still in a downtrend. 

NYA W still enough under its YP & 1HP, while reaching the highest RSI since last May. Perhaps the RSI is constructive, since that is when the market topped out, but still point remains below long term levels. 

D version just under the Q1P, also with highest RSI since 2014 Q4. 

Here is D with all pivots, and you can see huge cluster above with the YP, HP and Q1P all nearby, with MarR2 for good measure.

ACWI bottomed on YS1 near exact and now has rallied back near 1HP, but still under it.

ACWI D reached MarR2 but still under Q1P, with RSI approaching fully OB at 66. 

And here are all long term and medium term pivots. 

Since I mentioned the Russell here's an updated version of IWM with the low bang on YS2 and rally back above YS1, but far below long term levels. 

IWM above MarP but well below Q1P; above MarR1 but did not reach MarR2 yet. 

And combined view. USA market probably safe as long as IWM holds the 1HS1 / YS1 combo. 

USA main indexes

First from last week's post in the sum section: "If indexes jump further above long term pivots then semi-bear is over and bull market back! We could see a rejection, which of course keeps bear market idea alive. But given the strength of last week's up bars, some pause seems likely. [...] Right now you could say indexes confidently approaching major long term pivots and that is bullish - it looks a lot stronger than creeping up with weak advance especially on lower volume."

And then in the INDU comments: "What a huge decision for the market here perfectly illustrated on INDU! Note all the big turns on levels, 2014 low of year, 2014 higher lows, 2015 all big lows, etc. If bear market for real this should be stiff resistance; if this clears on a weekly close that would be big sign back to bullish! Both DIA and YM like the SPY / ES are just above 1HP & YP but below Q1P and MarR1."

DIA and YM held their YP for 5 straight trading days before the big leap on Friday. 

Sum
More significant pivot status changes. As of the close of last week on 3/4: INDU / DIA / YM above 3 pivots but below Q1P; by the end of the week YP had acted as support for 5 days on DIA and YM and all 3 cleared the Q1P to regain status of "above all pivots." SPX cleared fractionally on Friday, so 2014-16 gets you the Q1P, 1HP and YP so a big tell going forward if that holds. Similarly, SPY and ES also jumped above all pivots on Friday from being below 3 levels on 3/8. NDX testing its YP 4373 another key level to watch; then better if VTI holds its 1HP / YP combo at 102.50 - 102.73 and clears its Q1P at 103.41 as well. 

RTY while healthy gains from the low, still a ways to clear pivots; NYA a bit closer but basically in similar condition.  

Due to all the Q1Ps in play I am going to follow the same format as last week. Weekly charts for cash indexes showing long term levels only, then daily charts on the ETFs and futures.

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX trading through the YP / 1HP and back above all pivots! This is a big deal as it opens the door to 2162-63. That said, the pivot level does not yet have the "look" of support. When we see that, then we can really think about that higher target level. If playing the bull side obviously you'd want to see SPX remaining above 2014-15 in the coming week. 
SPY does have 1 day lift-off from the YP and above the Q1P, bullish.
ES after 3 days of healthy pause, 1 day selling, 2 days pause, broke out to upside and now above all pivots!

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX back to YP 4373 so that's a level to watch this week, COMPQ a bit below. Hard to know what to do with that QQQ YP as there is such a discrepancy between that and the cash index & futures levels (due to 8/24/15 spike low). If long against that then watch the others. NQ also still heading into resistance at 4129.

INDU / DIA / YM
Clear pivot leaders with INDU having the most "look of support" on the weekly, and both DIA and YM holding YP for 5 days (!) before the launch. If INDU stays above this pivot support area YP / Q1P 17048 & 17138 then we can start to think about 1HR1 / YR1 targets at 18584 & 18727 respectively, or 8%+ from here. 

RTY / IWM / TF
These have had a tremendous rally from the YS2 low, showing real buying in the market. Back above YS1 / 1HS1 was a tell last week, and now that needs to hold as support. That said, still a far cry from regaining Q1P, 1HP or YP pivots. 

NYA / VTI
NYA clear lift from YS1 / 1HS1 support the last 3-4 weeks, but still heading into 1HP & YP pivots. VTI pivots are at different levels, again likely due to 8/24/2015 spike, although VTI may not be exactly benchmarked to NYA, they are both very broad composites. 1 day above 1HP and YP, still heading into Q1P. 

USA main indexes

Due to levels that tagged on Friday, this week will be slightly different. Usually I post weekly charts for all variants of the 5 USA main indexes, but since a few key quarterly pivots were clear resistance last week, I thought better to show those. The way I can do this is include all pivots on a daily chart. So the format below will be weekly charts with long term levels only on the cash indexes for larger context, then daily charts with all levels on ETFs and futures. 

Sum
So many levels in play with very important implications. A few indexes especially have a tight cluster of 3 pivots and a monthly R1 all nearby. If indexes jump further above long term pivots then semi-bear is over and bull market back! We could see a rejection, which of course keeps bear market idea alive. But given the strength of last week's up bars, some pause seems likely. A clear answer is easiest but sometimes it isn't and we check again on the next bar. Right now you could say indexes confidently approaching major long term pivots and that is bullish - it looks a lot stronger than creeping up with weak advance especially on lower volume.  

Indexes testing YP / 1HP:
SPY ES NDX (almost) INDU DIA YM and VTI. This past week was the first touch of these levels since the breakdown the first week of the year. In addition, most of these are near Q1P and MarR1 levels as well. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX still a bit shy of huge pivot status 1HP / YP combo at 2014-15. 
SPY cleared 1HP / YP barely, but resistance at Q1P (smaller crosses at the high) and MarR1 as well.
ES like SPY. 

So immediate levels to watch are the SPY & ES long term levels 1HP / YP 199.81 & 201.01 respectively and whether those act as support or resistance; then the medium term levels Q1P and MarR1 at 201.55 and 199.79 respectively. ES versions 1988 for the 1HP / YP, then 2004 / 1998 for Q1P and MarR1 respectively. 

I won't type up levels for each index but if you don't have pivots on your platform just ask through the contact page. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX approaching HUGE bull/bear line for mkt at the YP 4373. 
COMPQ also below its YP.
QQQ discrepancy due to 8/24 spike, although this doesn't make sense it DOES look like the level is in play. If long on that would want to see confirmation via cash index and fututes though, which hasn't happened yet. 
NQ still well under its YP  4432.

INDU / DIA / YM
What a huge decision for the market here perfectly illustrated on INDU! Note all the big turns on levels, 2014 low of year, 2014 higher lows, 2015 all big lows, etc. If bear market for real this should be stiff resistance; if this clears on a weekly close that would be big sign back to bullish!
Both DIA and YM like the SPY / ES are just above 1HP & YP but below Q1P and MarR1. 
 

RTY / IWM / TF
The low of the year was bang on the YS2s on these indexes. Sign of strength last week was jump above YS1. 

NYA / VTI
NYA healthy rebound from 1HS1 / YS1 combo. VTI already testing resistance cluster like SPY & DIA.

USA main indexes

From last week: "I will do a separate post for the medium term levels to watch for the week, ie, the Feb pivots. If the market drops back down, then at least some of these YS1 / 1HS1 levels will be back in play."

And that is almost exactly where the lows were with huge holds of SPX YS1 1895 (low 1891), COMPQ YS1 4455 (low 4425), NYA YS1 9350 (low 9325), along with oil CLJ6 1HS1 30.77 (low 30.56). 

The reason I am watching cash index, ETF and futures levels is because (unfortunately) all of them seem to be in play. Last year I was more focused on the cash index levels (which worked great for NDX on 8/24); but my plan to aggressively buy SPX YS1 at 1833 in late September never triggered as the market held YS1 on the then current ES contract instead. That convinced me to include futures on all levels, not just medium term as I had been doing. And the ETFs have the benefit of free real time monitoring on TradingView as well as several other sectors & countries that are otherwise more difficult to track.

Also, due to pricing differentials on the 8/24/2015 spike low, pivots are more different this year across similar asset classes. Meaning SPX SPY ES should be about the same, but 2016 pivots vary more this year than most other years, so I want to watch which seems to have the most influence on the market. Verdict so far is the cash index yearly levels, but there are definitely some moves coming off the futures and the ETFs as well. 

Now on to this week's report on the 5 main USA indexes. All charts weekly with long term levels only. If you are new please see the FAQ for explanation. Levels sometimes look to good to be true (see low of year on the Russell vehicles) but in fact all levels established at the close of 12/31/2015 and fixed for the current period, so that means all of 2016 for yearly pivots and the first six months for first half pivots.

Sum
Several key indexes clearly lifting from YS1s is bullish, especially when those levels "look like" support. The indexes that directly tested and held major levels last week: SPX, COMPQ and NYA.

Also, RTY / IWM / TF continues the bounce from YS2 lows (all very near exact), which was basically the low in the market on 2/11. They now are testing the YS1 / 1HS1 area from underneath; a recovery of this area would be major bullish development as this has been the weakest main USA index for many months (so not including sectors like energy). A pause is mixed, a rejection of course is bearish. I think this is one of the most important levels to watch for the coming week.

If the market goes higher, then DIA, YM then INDU may test YPs as well. 

We'll also have new March pivots on 3/1 and the first thing I will scan is whether any asset is above or below these levels. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX clearly lifting from its YS1 last week which is bullish. If the market goes any higher it will is possible that YPs will test on the ES (which will happen before a test of SPX or SPY). 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX continues the bounce back above YS1; COMPQ held YS1 as support last week like SPX; QQQ tested its YP! And NQ also lifted back above its YS1.
The differential between QQQ and others is due to 8/24/2015 spike low and very annoying. I won't go back to full bullish with QQQ above YP, but could add to bullish considerations if above and bearish if it is rejected. 

INDU / DIA / YM
All of these very clearly held YS1 and 1HS1 areas near the lows, which is why I recommended the buy on 2/12. And soon a very critical test of the YPs could be coming up. Right now INDU / DIA / YM are the market leader of these 5 indexes, so I will change gears significantly if these clear the YP / 1HP area. If rejected, however, then it looks like other bear market years testing the YP from underneath after a bounce, and this could and should lead to another significant leg lower. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Note the lows of the year on YS2s across the board; now all 3 testing YS1 / 1HS1 area. Recovery would be very bullish for the market, so this is one of the most important things to watch in the coming week.  

2015-16 can be summed up this way: YP hold, YR1, attempt to clear YR1, rejected, down to YP, chop with several breaks & recoveries, then sharp drop to 2016 YS2. So, 2015 YR1 to 2016 YS2. 

NYA / VTI 
NYA also clearly lifting from YS1 / 1HS1 combo which is bullish; VTI already above. 

USA main indexes

Intro note: If you are new to my terminology please see the FAQ page and especially the video posted there.

The must read summary of the big indexes. All charts are weekly with year & half-year pivots only.

Sum
Based on the 2/8 weekly bars (so 2 bars ago) that held INDU / DIA / YM YS1s and RTY / IWM / TF YS2s, the stage was set for a bounce and that came through. And last week, SPX / SPY / ES recovered their YS1s; NDX lifted from its YS1 as COMPQ & NQ recovered YS1s, and NYA & TFI recovered YS1s too. In all cases, the half year levels are quite nearby the yearly levels as well. So this is bullish action from major long term support (both yearly and half-year) on all main indexes - with YS1s in play for all except YS2 & 1HS2 on RTY / IWM / TF.

If looking at the charts below, just check the action from the large green crosses (YS1s or in case of Russell indexes YS2s).

And who knows, maybe the major low for the year is in and the market is on the way back to yearly pivots and then YR1s. Anything can happen. Right now we can say long term support held, recovered, or bounced on all 5 main USA  indexes. 

If the market goes higher it will will take significantly more advance to recover longer term levels ie the YP / HP / QP levels. I will do a separate post for the medium term levels to watch for the week, ie, the Feb pivots. If the market drops back down, then at least some of these YS1 / 1HS1 levels will be back in play. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX reclaimed YS1 1895 / 1HS1 1896 combo, bullish
SPY had held levels fractionally 2 bars ago, more convincing lift last week
ES lifted above 1866

So all 3 recovered YS1s, bullish. If lower the first to break will be SPX 1895-96, then the SPY and ES levels back in play. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX YS1 & 1HS1 recovered fractionally 2 bars ago, clear lift above last week, bullish
COMPQ also recovered YS1 / 1HS1
QQQ perhaps not best guide this year with big discrepancy in structure due to 8/24/15 spike
NQ also recovered YS1 / 1HS1 4130

So all but QQQ (which remained above YS1 due to pivot structure discrepancy) recovered YS1s, bullish. COMPQ and NQ do not quite yet have look of support. 

INDU / DIA / YM
All 3 had clearly held the YS1s / 1HS1s 2 bars ago, and put in some bounce from there as planned. The hold 2 bars ago is why I recommended a speculative buy on INDU / YM on 2/12. 

RTY / IWM / TF
All 3 bounced from their holds of YS2 / 1HS2 combo. 

NYA / VTI
Both recovered YS1s & 1HS1s, bullish.

USA main indexes

Intro note: If you are new to my terminology please see the FAQ page and especially the video posted there.

The must read summary of the big indexes. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX needs to reclaim YS1 / 1HS1 combo
SPY level is lower due to 8/24 spike, and in fact 2/12 closed slightly above
ES also below but within striking distance of level 1866

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX YS1 actually hasn't broken on weekly close yet; big level to watch considering 2009-15? tech led bull market. 
COMPQ well below however
QQQ perhaps not best guide this year with big discrepancy in structure due to 8/24/15 spike
NQ well under YS1 

INDU / DIA / YM
All 3 of these clearly holding YS1s. Read this blog post for the importance of the INDU yearly levels. Holding here sets up bounce possibility, which is why I wrote about this speculative buy. 

RTY / IWM / TF
All of these are on YS2s. As RTY etc has led the USA market down, obviously the YS2s need to hold for USA stock bounce.
 

NYA / VTI
These are not exactly the same but similar broad composite cash index & ETF. NYA bit under YS1s, VTI more easily recovered. Watch these also to gauge strength of bounce if it happens. 


USA main indexes

Weekly charts and long term levels (yearly & half year) only:

SPX / SPY / ES
COMPQ / NDX / QQQ / NQ
INDU / DIA / YM
RTY / IWM / TF
NYA

Sum: The more of these that trade below YS1s, the more likely we will see a batch of YS2s on the low that counts. Considering some current YS1 breaks that we are seeing after the market stabilized for a few weeks, that's bearish. 

SPX broke YS1 last week, SPY still above, ES breaking this morning as I type. Bearish to break the YS1s as many YS1s tried to hold the market for the last few weeks. On the long term level, next support is far below ie YS2 / 1HS2 combo at 1748 SPX.

COMPQ broke YS1 last week, NDX on the level, QQQ well above (discrepancy due to 8/24 spike), NQ break. Barring big recovery today (anything is possible) likes like both cash indexes and the futures will be below YS1s, bearish.

Interesting, INDU and DIA well above YS1s, with YM testing this morning. So this type of relative out-performance over SPX and NDX makes INDU/DIA for now, first on watch for any bounces. This is especially true if YM continues to hold YS1. Conversely, if you are short (as one would be following this method, along with TLT and GLD longs), one could use DIA as hedge if you wanted to keep more gains on stock bounces. 

RTY / IWM / TF stopped at YS1 on the bounce, making visit to 1HS2 / YS2 area likely.

NYA broke its YS1 on close for 1 week, recovered, bounce, down but held, and looks likely to open below this morning.

Weekly charts - USA main stock indexes

Showing weekly charts with long term pivot levels (yearly and half-yearly) for what I consider to be the 5 main USA stock indexes / ETFs:

SPX / SPY / ES
NDX / QQQ / NQ
INDU / DIA
RTY / IWM
NYA

SPX recovered YS1; SPY and especially ES have the look of lifting from the level as support. Also note lows the last few days bang on the level 1866 which I was mentioning all week in the daily SPY comments. But still below the major YP and HP levels by quite a lot. In my view, big levels definitely used for short covering, perhaps speculative buy, but no big investment buying until above at least one long term pivot level. 

NDX held its YS1 exact and this was pretty much what stopped the crash. Although QQQ levels "should be" like NDX, due to the 8/24 low they are quite different. So QQQ did not even reach and YS1 level although the cash index did; and very close to recovering its YP although the case index is quite far. The futures NQ also reached YS1 and held. Bottom line some programs may check in with QQQ above the YP / 1HP combo, but anyone buying should keep sharp eye on the NDX and NQ pivots to confirm.

INDU held YS1 / 1HS1 combo and decent bar up from there. DIA almost same look. 

RTY and IWM held YS2 / 1HS2 combo and now heading into YS1 / 1HS1 level which might be resistance. 

Last but not least, the NYA held its YS1 / 1HS1 combo as well. 

All of these, along with many other stock indexes / ETFs, held yearly and half-yearly levels in the past weeks. Most of these will open below February pivots, so we'll carefully watch the medium term levels (quarterly and monthly pivots) to assess the strength of the bounce.

Big levels

The amount of indexes or ETFs that turned from long term levels - by this I mean yearly or half-year pivots - is rather amazing. These weeks are rare. The odds favor more on the bounce, but how far it gets we shall see - and use the shorter term pivots, especially the FebPs which will be in play in about a week - to gauge the strength. Of course all the levels below that broke and recovered by the weekly close will have to hold.

All charts weekly with year and half-year levels only (no quarterly or monthly). Listing comments first, then the charts. If you get confused to which is which, look for the light grey watermark of sorts identifying the index / ETF.

This post has gotten quite long, and I still didn't cover two categories - currencies and commodities namely, oil. I will do another post on that soon, but check the recent blog post on oil that pointed to the key level YS1 a day before the low!

USA mains stock indexes & ETFs
SPX / SPY / ES - all broke YS1s & 1HS1s, but recovered on close (hard to see 1HS1 on chart b/c so close to YS1)

NDX / QQQ / NQ - low on NDX near exact, QQQ disparate structure ie not on YS1, NQ more like ES

INDU / DIA - lows on YS1 & 1HS1 combo

RTY / IWM held YS2 / 1HS2 combo area. (Note: these two charts added on 1/27.)

NYA - recovered YS1, but still a fraction under 1HS1

USA additional stock indexes & ETFs
IBB - weaker bounce off YS1

SOXX - better move up from 1HS1. The Pivotal Perspective prefers SOXX over IBB here.

XLE - also YS1 low and recovery of 1HS1 

XLF - I don't know what to make of pivots this year due to massive 8/24 spike, so not showing here

Safe havens & risk indicators
TYX - just slightly below its YP; recovery would put in back in congestion zone above YP but below 1HP; below YP remains bearish yield and bullish bonds. 

TNX - rebounded from 1HS1

TLT - high on 1HR1 near exact

ZB - high on YR1 / 1HR1 combo, but could be pause and not rejection.

ZN - also high on YR1 / 1HR1 combo, but also perhaps pause and not rejection.

HYG - low on 1HS1

VIX - poked above, but did not close above, the YP for the last 2 weeks. decent reversal from the YP although some may point to closing below the low of last week as confirmation, which hasn't happened yet.

XIV - near test of YS1, no official tag however

GLD - rather awful that GLD could not climb above 1HP in all the turmoil

Global stock ETFs
EWJ - held YS1 and 1HS1

EWG - held YS1 and 1HS1

FXI - holding 1HS1 but not much green 

EEM - similar to FXI

PIN - low on 1HS1 exact

RSX - low on YS1 and decent bounce along with oil

ACWI - global benchmark ETF, also low on YS1 & 1HS1 combo




Yearly pivot promise

In December I participated in the TSAA-SF Annual Round Up and gave a talk on pivots. One of the key points was: if above the yearly pivot, there is a very good chance of reaching YR1. If below the yearly pivot, then there is a very good chance of seeing YS1. In fact, using the Dow cash index or $INDU, only 4 years since 1950 have *NOT* seen either the YS1 or the YR1 within 1%. 

So just 1 week into 2016 and this has already occurred for:

SPX cash, below YP 2015 on 1/6 (for session and close, 1/5 closed 1 point above) and already nearly tagged YS1 within 5 points. 5 SPX points is .25%, so I am going to say *close enough!*

IWM, below YP from 2016 open and tagged YS1 exact today 1/11. 

NYA, below YP from 2016 open and came within .9% of YS1 today. 

Last year, nearly every asset ETF available met this fundamental yearly pivot promise - so far of the ones I track 3 in the first week. What others will fulfill the yearly pivot promise too? 

2016 so far

Yikes! That was a brutal start to the year, and a lot of people are talking about what it all means. From The Pivotal Perspective, the view is simple: if the index is above the yearly pivot, there is a very good chance of seeing the yearly R1 at some point in the year. Below the yearly pivot the target shits to the yearly S1.

On the big indexes, most especially the Dow / INDU, there is a exceptionally good chance of either one (but not both) happening - in fact, in all but 4 years since 1950, the Dow cash index reached its YR1 or YS1. This makes the pivot a key dividing line for one of these larger targets on the year. 

Find out more in the video with a view of 2016 so far on the 5 main USA indexes: 

SPY / ES / SPX
QQQ / NQ / NDX
DIA / INDU
IWM
NYA

Cracks appear

For the first time since 10/2/2015, there has been some notable weakness in the market. A pullback after such a huge run is completely normal occurrence; but it would be helpful to have the correct interpretation of the market thus far. Meaning this: bull scenario is that the more than 10% correction has finally happened, the low has tested and held on most indexes, and now the market has made a decent recovery and could see new highs by the end of the year. Conversely, the bear scenario is that while strong this bounce from 10/2-12 while strong was part of a larger down move. So, bull or bear?

First the main USA indexes (I am using ETFs for ease):
SPY above YP, Q4P, OctP; fell back under MR1 along with ES Z5 futs (both despite SPX holding onto MR1 at the close). Overall a bit weaker, but still largely bullish esp above YP 197.40 & Q4P 195.73
QQQ above YP 97.59, slightly above 2HP 105.86, above Q4P 100.29 & MP 103.07; rejected from MR1 107.40 today. Overall very bullish since above all pivots (not so many asset classes currently qualify); needs to hold 2HP to keep this designation.
DIA fraction above YP 170.57 after looking more positively above it for 2 days; still well above Q4P 164.81 and MP 163.74. Watch the DIA YP!
IWM spent 3 days above the YP 114.85 / Q4P 114.31 combo, but today got rejected from MR1 116.39 and fell below both of the larger levels. This was a bearish development. 

So from here, QQQ 2HP, DIA YP and IWM Q4P are levels to watch. 

Second, risk: TLT could have broken down but didn't. It only spent 1 day below the Q4P 122.61 / MP 122.12 support area on 10/8; recovered MP 10/9; jumped back above Q4P 10/12; and is now only pennies from reclaiming 2HP 123.61! This would be a big deal since there are not that many assets classes currently above all pivots.

In fact, an easy bull / bear scenario from here would be to watch 2HPs on TLT and QQQ, along with the YP on DIA. If TLT recovers 2HP as QQQ rejects, that's bearish - because at that point TLT will be above all pivots and QQQ will lose that status. Obviously, the converse is also true; if QQQ holds 2HP and TLT rejects, then the stronger bull case remains. Probably DIA will move in the similar bullish / bearish direction as these two. 

Third, supporting index ETFs. As markets pushed up into the 10/9-13 high area, both XLF and SOXX approached their YPs at 23.45 and 86.21 respectively. Unlike DIA and IWM, however, they did not clear; ie, the YPs were resistance. Both XLF and SOXX are related to the larger issue of growth in the economy. Combined with TLT strength, fundamental issues are clearly putting a brake on the rally. 
 

Ringing the bell

They say no one rings a bell at the top, but pivots ring bells at major turns! It's true - nearly all the big turns in the market will have multiple major pivots in play, which means yearly, half-year, and then sometimes quarterly as well. 

On 9/30 the following big levels were in play:
SPX 2HS2 1905, had broken 2 days; recovered, tested and held today
NDX 2HS1 4129, had broken 2 days; recovered, tested and held
INDU YS1 16074, had broken 2 days; recovered today (level did not test)
IWM YS1 108.30, had broken 1 day; recovered, tested and held today

In addition:
TLT 2HP 123.61, had exceeded 1 day but back under today. 

These are the ingredients for major turns - however, in this case, due to the sharp drop in Q3 and movement of September, all the stock indexes will be opening below both OctPs and Q4Ps; and TLT will be above. This will mean stiff resistance for the stock indexes is a bit above current levels, even if the market can add to Wednesday's gains. 

So at this point, an immediate break of the stock index support levels would be quite bearish, considering all indexes will be below Q4Ps and OctPs. But if the market can rally more first, then watch these levels carefully for the testing of the medium term trend.