The Pivotal Perspective has been all over the safe haven rallies because it was crystal clear using this method that both were making positive moves from important levels as stocks rolled over. Summary posts are here for TLT and here for GLD.
Although I did say taking some gains from the more recent adds (TLT adds 1/25-28, then GLD adds 2/4-5) I encouraged to put them back on per bearish playbook. So we are in management phase of full positions on these. Now what?
TLT weekly chart with long term levels shows clear lift above 1HP, clear big high volume jumpabove YP, which acted as support from there; pause at 1HR1, tag of 1HR2 / YR1 area but maintaining pretty well. So the big issue is whether that's it for the year or if TLT will clear the YR1 and go for the 2015 highs or maybe higher. A simple long term strategy could be to hold above the 1HR1 near 128 that can act as support.
I don't like to see 2 smaller blue bars in an uptrend especially with wicks, but let's see how the bar closes and how stock indexes react to their FebPs from here.
Here's the daily chart with medium term levels. You can see the launch above the QP and JanP, then Q1R1 turned into support, Q1R2 turned into support, but still struggling at Q1R3. OK, maybe Q1R2 will continue to hold as support. Also, in a few trading days, we'll have the March pivot which will probably act as support. Per my bias I think this is a full hold but it will be much easier if stocks indexes reject their FebPs.
GLD was making an equally clear move a few weeks behind TLT. GLD did try to jump above HP & YP in 2015, but the difference at the time was that stock indexes were still above their YPs while this time they had crumbled. Knowing that is why I was really thinking the move was for real, in addition to seeing DXY weakness at the time.
GLD too has quickly reached its YR1 / 1HR1 combo. So again we have the same issue - is that it for the year? Or will those levels clear and hold as support? So far just a pause, no red and looking like it could clear - and would be an easy hold for higher targets.
Here's GLD D with medium term levels. Similar jump above Q1P, and was already above JanP at the time. No damage from Q1R1, a jump above that. Now it is consolidating under Q1R2 but not too much damage. 1 day rejection met with buying today. So I also think this is full hold and let's use March levels to held guide the position as well as keeping an eye on the big YR1 / 1HR1 combo.
If you added GDX for kick above its YP, that is doing fine and looks like it should test its YR1 / 1HR1 combo as well with even a Q1R3 nearby all 20.20 to 20.42.
4:25 EST update.
A much different look at the close on each. TLT small blue bar with rejection from a monthly resistance level.
GLD especially poked above but did not close above YR1, potentially bearish if any lower tomorrow.