USA main indexes

Sum
Last week:  2 strong, 1 middling, 1 weaker, 1 TBD -.
This week: 3 strong, 1 mixed, 1 TBD +.

So positive status change in the tech set going from middling to strong, joining INDU and SPX already there. RTY small caps remain in long term downtrend but above both medium term levels, so from weaker to mixed. NYA, getting "TBD" designation looked like pause semi-rejection from levels last week but came back to close near the levels with more chance of clear, getting a +.

Still, bullish status shifts in 3 of the 5 main USA indexes and a major change for NDX/COMPQ/QQQ/NQ to all be back above YPs, the first time since 1/5/2016 for COMPQ to be above its YP. 

The levels to watch in the coming week are still the NYA YP / HP combo at 10302 / 10228 respectively.

The other thing that is a factor is high daily chart RSIs.
SPY RSI high 4/1 69.25
QQQ RSI high 4/1 70.33
DIA RSI high 4/1 73.12, bullish to be above its 3/18-19 highs
IWM RSI high 3/7 69.87
NYA RSI high 3/18 67.88

A strong market can ignore overbought readings as the Dow has already done so far, but as more indexes join in overbought territory the more likely move is a slowdown to a range with a quick shakeout to work off the overbought condition. 

SPX / SPY / ES
Above all pivots, bullish; and not near any major resistance area. Huge support with YP 1HP Q2P and AprP all nearby. On SPX the cluster is 1980-2023. Major resistance is up at the YR1, 1HR1 and Q2R1 area all 2151-2163. The near term concern is the high daily chart RSIs.

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
This was a huge week for the tech set as NDX lifted from its YP, COMPQ cleared YP for the first time since 1/5 this year, and NQ also jumped above its YP for the second time confirming the QQQ move earlier. QQQ different structure due to 8/24/2015 spike so I haven't really been considering that status of above its YP as fully real - now it is though. 

INDU / DIA / YM
These continue to look great especially with DIA / YM daily charts ignoring overbought readings and continuing to power up. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Mixed condition. Still well below long term levels YP and 1HP, decently above Q2P and above AprP as well. Still can be considered as possible USA long hedge against DIA, SOXX, possible SPY/QQQ longs in coming weeks.

NYA / VTI
The NYA is the only "but" of this week with clear stall at the YP / HP combo. But bang on the level and may clear next week. The daily chart shows that drops were met with enthusiastic buying. Watch this NYA YP HP area next week. VTI is already above but that is a slightly different index; still as a very broad market ETF it helps to be above. 

Breadth

I also cover the NYA in the USA main index post every weekend, but I do think it is that important. When NYA is on your side on a USA index position it will usually work.

Sum
Both NYA and ACWI stalled at key pivot zones. The NYA reached its 1HP on 3/18 and was unable to close above, then had a rejection bar on 3/23. ACWI reached its Q1P and was near the level 3/18-22 until a rejection on 3/23.

Despite the strength of other popular breadth indicators, the inability for key institutional indexes to reclaim long term pivots is a cautionary note. We may yet see a second attempt and clear, but that is conjecture at this point. 

* * *

Using daily charts to illustrate precision of the pivots here. NYA resistance exactly on the 1HP, and if that clears then it will be dealing with the YP.

Here are the quarterly and monthly pivots, but these will be changing on 4/1. The 2nd move above the FebP confirmed the bounce scenario.

ACWI managed to close above the 1HP for 4 trading days but fell back under with clear rejection on 3/23 with decent volume. Like NYA, it was also close to running into its YP.

And there is ACWI running into its Q1P which was exact on the high. 

Quarterly and Monthly charts

3 days left in Q1 so an interesting time to check quarterly and monthly charts. For today let's check the USA mains and I'll try to include others of interest (TLT, GLD, oil, emerging markets) in the next few days. 

On all charts:
Standard Bollinger bands and simple moving averages
10MA = light blue
20MA = orange
50MA = purple
200MA = black

Sum
SPY Q chart bullish but possible RSI divergence, M chart better above 20MA
QQQ bullish with resistance at 2000 quarterly close high, Q chart RSI still overbought!
DIA looks best (and not just saying that due to earlier buys; already nicely above M chart 20MA and RSIs more room to move up)
IWM Q chart does not look bad, M chart some question
NYA Q chart could be stronger, overall better above 2007 close high, M chart congested

SPY Q chart held low areas of 2014 Q2, 2014 Q4, and 2015 Q3 which looks good for a move to the top of the range at least. Also holding a nicely rising 10MA as support, in fact 1 close near the level and otherwise above on close. All this looks bullish.

But the concern here is the clear divergence on RSI. RSI was 75.5 on the 2014 Q4 bar and 75.7 on the 2015 Q1 quarterly close high. 2015 Q4 was 69 for the clear lower high and with 3 trading days to go it is 68.6. Will RSI rocket to overbought territory again, or will there be sellers into any further strength? Something to keep in mind in the weeks ahead. I'm not sure how many SPY points it would take to get RSI from 68.6 to 70, but it isn't that much. 

SPY M chart reached RSI 50 buy area on the lows and currently testing its 20MA. Very simple, in addition to the pivots we like to consider, it is more bullish above that level but bearish if the bounce stops here. See May 2008 for a bearish example, and July 2010, November and December 2011, June 2012 for several bullish examples. 

QQQ is holding a sharply rising 10MA as support but fell back under the 2000 quarterly close high. Note this level has been resistance for 4 quarters of the last 5. Bulls have a shot, but stronger above that level. Quarterly RSI still overbought but trending lower.

QQQ M chart broke the 20MA but bottomed on the lower Bollinger band twice. More bullish above the 20MA.

DIA Q chart nearly tested its 20MA twice. RSI only 66 which has more room to move up. This chart looks pretty good. 

DIA M is above its 20MA and that is another reason to hold the longs that were purchased below that level. 

IWM Q chart looks pretty good too, holding its rising 20MA and RSI near uptrend buy area at 56. If lower then 2007 & 2011-12 high areas along with 50MA next big support area. 

IWM M chart back above rising 50MA, but lows that far outside the BB may have to test. 

NYA Q chart is holding the 20MA but would look better with a higher close than last quarter. Possible resistance at the 2007 close high area. 

NYA M chart in congestion zone between rising 50MA and falling 20MA. 

Comparing bear market rallies to today

Using the 5 main cash indexes, let's look at 2008 and then 2001-02. I'm doing this to add to context of "bull vs bear" idea first posted here.

2008 Sum
In 2008, NDX, INDU and NYA backtested and tagged YP and/or 1HPs and clearly failed very near the level. NDX alone exceeded YP slightly, but with 1HP just above and still resistance and never achieving YP "look of support." INDU and NYA crystal clear rejections at their YPs. So maybe this is an obvious point right now, in 2016, but 2 major indexes are above YPs so as long as this is the case we are not in a 2008 type of scenario.

Ultimate lows in 2008-09 were at SPX 2009 1HS1, INDU 2009 YS1, RTY YS1 near test, and NYA YS1 near test. 

2001-02 Sum
While SPX and NDX stayed completely below YP levels, INDU, RTY and NYA exceeded YPs for several weeks both in 2001 and in 2002. In 2002, the RTY was above its YP for the entire first half! But eventually all 5 did break down and go lower.

Ultimate lows were SPX 2002 2HS2, NDX 2002 YS1, INDU 2002 2HS2 break and recovery along with 2003 1HS1 near test, RTY 2002 YS2 near test, and NYA 2002 YS2 near exact. 

Main point for coming weeks
As much as we'd all like to know for certain, the market is unpredictable. For positioning purposes, the more main indexes above YPs the more bullish. If indexes fail at YPs then that will be clear and one can adjust the other way. Right now INDU and SPX remain above, NDX / COMPQ mixed and testing, NYA nearing a test, and RTY well below.

Obviously, if NDX holds YP as support and COMPQ joins above the YP, and NYA rallies at least above its 1HP and eventually clears its YP, then that will be 4 indexes above instead of 2. Conversely, NDX could fail leaving only INDU and SPX above, and NYA have clearer rejection. We'll see what happens. 

Keep in mind we've already seen YS1s on SPX, NDX, INDU, and NYA, and YS2 on RTY and there has been a tremendous recovery since then. 

2008

SPX dropped to YS2, rallied back to near YP but didn't even tag, then crumbled. Eventual bottom near 2009 1HS1.

20160326 1 SPX W.png

NDX broke and recovered YS1, and rallied all the way back to YP / 1HP area. 2 weeks did close above YP but the 1HP was just above and stuck as resistance. 2nd time under the 2HP led to waterfall drop. COMPQ (not shown) remained completely below both YP and 1HP without even tagging the levels.

INDU also backtested its YP but failed bang on the level. INDU eventually bottomed on 2009 YS1 near exact. 

RTY did not even tag the YP on the rally. Breakdown of 2HP started the massive drop. 

NYA backtested YP and had clear rejection. 

2001-02

Back to SPX for 2001-02 charts. SPX failed bang on YP & 1HP combo early in 2001, and stopped fractionally above the level without achieving "look of support" in March 2004 followed by a clear failure. 

NDX was leading the drop and stayed completely under YPs after breaking down in November 2000 until finally recovering in May 2003.

INDU W exceeded its YP both in 2001 and 2002. In 2001, after recovering its YS1 / 1HS1 combo, INDU rallied and then was above its YP for 6 weeks. 2 of those weeks were up, 1 was a pause, 1 down, 2 not much movement, then a breakdown. After backtesting the level from underneath and failing a larger drop followed. In 2002, INDU held 1HP support and stayed above the YP for 16 weeks (!) before eventually breaking down. 

RTY stayed completely under the YP with clear resistance in 2001, but also stayed above the YP / 1HP combo for the entire first half in 2002, breaking down only at the start of the second half. 

NYA also spent several weeks above its YP both in 2001 and 2002. 

USA main indexes

Sum
Last week 2 strong, 1 middling, 1 weaker, 1 TBD.

This week 2 strong, 1 middling, 1 weaker, 1 TBD -. (This means still TBD with a slight negative.)

NYA is a bit weaker than last week, because it clearly stalled at its 1HP level; but due to the smaller range selling bar, this doesn't look like rejection quite yet. Not much status change overall. 

To watch next week: most immediate is NDX YP at 4373, because breaking this would turn tech index group from "middling" to weak and join Russell group below long term levels. Then we are also watching NYA because any lower than last week's low will start to look more like rejection than pause. And on Friday new Q2Ps and of course AprPs are in play. 

Due to the rally and likely close it is quite possible that several indexes will be in quite mixed condition heading into Q2 - like RTY group could be below YP and HP but above Q2P and AprP. If so then there is no reason to jump in willy nilly. Soon enough there will be a very clear setup. If some cash on the sidelines then we are looking to put that to work on the best setup and also impacts the portfolio in the desired manner (ie more or less long risk, more or less long bonds, more or less long oil, gold, etc). Above 2 below 2 pivots not great setup; better when you get at least 3 on your side. Or as we did from 2/12 on, we can watch for recovery of monthly levels after the chance of a big turn which means YS1s holding too.  

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX W chart still looks quite good with small red bar and holding long term levels as support. Bullish as long as that holds. SPY and ES similar, showing Q1P as support. All 3 variations above all pivots!

The resistance level on the high was a MarR2 reached on SPX nearly reached 3/21 and then tagged with a lower close on 3/22 (See second chart below.) Usually monthly levels are not enough for a major top, although current quarterly levels are far above. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX barely holding YP 4373 so that is a level to watch in the coming week. COMPQ still under its YP, as is NQ. QQQ above - what? This is due to 8/24/2015 spike and discrepancy of futures to ETF pivots. It does look in play though, as does NQ YP. Pesky. Still, conclusion is tech is mixed / weaker compared to SPX and INDU. NDX breaking 4373, should that happen, would be bearish development as 3/4 main tech indexes failing at YPs.
 

INDU / DIA / YM
These charts still quite healthy with INDU W small red bar in middle of tremendous up. Well above long term pivots. You will also note INDU and DIA held YS1 exact without breaking (current YM chart looks like break, but different on YM H contract at the time) and this was why I went with DIA on the long side 2/12. These continued to lead the other main USA indexes on the way up so easy choice for long adds.

RTY / IWM / TF
While above YS1 / 1HS1 area, still lagging considerably behind the other USA indexes and not nearly close to reclaiming a long term pivot level. These may open above Q2Ps however, something to watch.

NYA / VTI
NYA W does have a red bar rejection from the 1HP which is some negative. However, it is smaller range than the last blue bar and so looks more like a pause than rejection at this point. VTI looks above long term levels - barely - but side with NYA here. Even if NYA comes back and exceeds the recent high (IF), it will be running into the YP. 

Breadth

There are dozens of breadth tools and other market internal measures out there. Various advance decline measures, new high new lows, cumulative breadth, technical signals on these like McClellan oscillator, advancing / declining volume, etc. Some of these can be helpful, so pick what you like.

Here we start with pivots on broad institutional indexes. 

Sum
Both NYA and ACWI have reached places very likely to pause considering pivots and high RSIs. NYA is testing long term levels from underneath, tagging 1HP with YP just above and Q1P also nearby. ACWI cleared 1HP slightly, but ran into Q1P and YP just above.

From here let's think about the possibilities:
strong bullish: soar above - less likely given RSIs.
bullish: few days pause then clear - possible.
mixed bullish: pullback, then another try - also quite possible.
pesky bearish: fakeout with 1-2 days clear the fall back - not happening so far.
bearish: major top here and down - cannot be ruled out.
worst: chop above break above break - hopefully this doesn't happen. 

NYA W has stopped cold on the 1HP. Clearing this would be additional bullish signal, but a rejection here risks more of a fade on the leaders. Also note the 2015 Q4 rejection of the YP was a major tell going forward, as well as the bottoms bank on on 1HS2 in the second half. 

NYA D testing its Q1P as I type. Even though there is only about 1 more week in the quarter, for now this level is in play.

NYA all levels. The key thing here is that 1HP and YP above will be in play in April, where we will have new Q2P and of course AprilP to consider. For now rejection from a long term level is bearish. 

VTI is also a broad index ETF. I'm not sure how much to weight compared to NYA due to the 8/24/2015 spike low (similar issue on QQQ, XLF, etc). But the low bang on Q1S2 looks pretty good, and the rejection of the YP early January also clear. Something to keep in mind along with NYA possibly. 

ACWI weekly pausing in pivot zone YP and 1HP. Holding 1HP as support this week somewhat bullish; rejection would be bearish. Or it could stay in congestion zone and not give anything clear. 

ACWI pause at the Q1P. 

Now with all levels - a very likely place for a pause, especially with RSI at 68 on the high. But whether this starts a major rejection or shuffle then clear remains to be seen. 

USA main indexes

Sum
INDU looks fantastic, SPX also decent; we are now thinking about YR1 targets as long as those maintain above their YP levels. The tech indexes NDX COMPQ etc are lagging. RTY remains well under major pivots despite its huge rally. NYA has justed reached its 1HP level (did not clear) with YP just above, although VTI looks better in this regard. 

2 indexes INDU and SPX strong, above all pivots
1 middling (COMPQ and NQ still below YPs, with NDX slightly above, QQQ above)
1 weaker (IWM below YP, 1HP and Q1P)
1 toss up (NYA below long term levels, VTI above)

The more indexes above pivots the better. I think some pause is more likely. There is also the matter of March R2 levels reached on INDU, DIA, YM and TF (RTY futs). If any higher next week then we'll see SPX, SPY and ES MarR2s too and that could also be a place for a short term top. 

Similar format as last few weeks. Cash index weekly chart with long term levels only; then daily charts with all levels on ETFs and futures. 

SPX / SPY / ES
We can start to think YR1s at SPX 2163 as long as the YP area holds at 2016. Near term clear resistance at the MarR2s at SPX 2054, SPY 206.03 and ES 2056. There is also the 2015 close level (red line on SPY chart) which would add to selling pressure if the market drops back under this on Friday. In addition, ES RSI is fully overbought at 70, SPY reached 68, and SPX 69. Mostly likely event is some move to work off the near overbought condition; ie mild pullback or some consolidation phase. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX just above YP 4373, but less impressive. COMPQ still below, along with NQ too. QQQ is above due to the discrepancy from the 8/24/2015 spike low. Basically tech is lagging here (partially due to IBB impact). I suppose the NQ YP level could be used as possible short area, but NDX is above its cash level and I think there are better choices elsewhere. If NDX falls back under its YP with the look of rejection, then OK that could be a short especially with VXN confirmation.
 

INDU / DIA / YM
Wow does that INDU W chart look fantastic. Ideal high of year 18727 at the YR1. DIA just aboev its MarR2 with YM bang on it. With RSIs that high, it may be a place to take gains on the last adds and then look for a pullback. See this week strategy sum for more ideas. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Impressive percentage move off lows, and bullish to recover YS1 / 1HS1 area, but still under YP, HP and Q1P. Futs tagged the MarR2 level, although more to go on cash index and IWM.

NYA / VTI
And there is the NYA bang on its 1HP 10228 and still under its YP 10302. Back under its Q1P 10160 in additional to returning red on the year would be a bearish trigger. VTI looks better; a slightly different construction along with 8/24/2015 influence on pivots. I am not sure which to weight here so let's say toss up. 

Breadth

There has been a lot of recent buzz about the breadth of the recent rally; the popular McClellan Oscillator was the highest in 7 years. Yes, there has been big buying in the small caps with the Russell vehicles RTY / IWM / TF futs rallying all the way from YS2 to above YS1 (ps, if you haven't seen already, the YS2 was the low of the year, along with INDU YS1, CL / oil YS1, and HYG YS1). So  the USA market is definitely in a stronger position with RTY / IWM above YS1 / 1HS1 combo 103-104. 

And while other breadth tools like advance/decline, advance/decline volume difference, and probably throw in other things you like such as new highs new lows, etc, all looks good here, I am going to sound a cautionary note. NYA and ACWI have not reclaimed any longer term pivots. This is where a rally could stop cold, ie only the leader INDU jumping above, while SPX fractionally above without the "look of support", NDX failing to clear, and the institutional broad indexes stopping right on or below major long term pivot clusters.

While I am more open to a bullish scenario with the USA leader INDU above its YP, if none of the others follow on their cash indexes then that is more likely to fade. Additionally, daily and weekly RSIs are at the highest levels in months if not longer, and perhaps some would say a sign of strength, but the rally more likely  spent and the broad indexes are still in a downtrend. 

NYA W still enough under its YP & 1HP, while reaching the highest RSI since last May. Perhaps the RSI is constructive, since that is when the market topped out, but still point remains below long term levels. 

D version just under the Q1P, also with highest RSI since 2014 Q4. 

Here is D with all pivots, and you can see huge cluster above with the YP, HP and Q1P all nearby, with MarR2 for good measure.

ACWI bottomed on YS1 near exact and now has rallied back near 1HP, but still under it.

ACWI D reached MarR2 but still under Q1P, with RSI approaching fully OB at 66. 

And here are all long term and medium term pivots. 

Since I mentioned the Russell here's an updated version of IWM with the low bang on YS2 and rally back above YS1, but far below long term levels. 

IWM above MarP but well below Q1P; above MarR1 but did not reach MarR2 yet. 

And combined view. USA market probably safe as long as IWM holds the 1HS1 / YS1 combo. 

USA main indexes

First from last week's post in the sum section: "If indexes jump further above long term pivots then semi-bear is over and bull market back! We could see a rejection, which of course keeps bear market idea alive. But given the strength of last week's up bars, some pause seems likely. [...] Right now you could say indexes confidently approaching major long term pivots and that is bullish - it looks a lot stronger than creeping up with weak advance especially on lower volume."

And then in the INDU comments: "What a huge decision for the market here perfectly illustrated on INDU! Note all the big turns on levels, 2014 low of year, 2014 higher lows, 2015 all big lows, etc. If bear market for real this should be stiff resistance; if this clears on a weekly close that would be big sign back to bullish! Both DIA and YM like the SPY / ES are just above 1HP & YP but below Q1P and MarR1."

DIA and YM held their YP for 5 straight trading days before the big leap on Friday. 

Sum
More significant pivot status changes. As of the close of last week on 3/4: INDU / DIA / YM above 3 pivots but below Q1P; by the end of the week YP had acted as support for 5 days on DIA and YM and all 3 cleared the Q1P to regain status of "above all pivots." SPX cleared fractionally on Friday, so 2014-16 gets you the Q1P, 1HP and YP so a big tell going forward if that holds. Similarly, SPY and ES also jumped above all pivots on Friday from being below 3 levels on 3/8. NDX testing its YP 4373 another key level to watch; then better if VTI holds its 1HP / YP combo at 102.50 - 102.73 and clears its Q1P at 103.41 as well. 

RTY while healthy gains from the low, still a ways to clear pivots; NYA a bit closer but basically in similar condition.  

Due to all the Q1Ps in play I am going to follow the same format as last week. Weekly charts for cash indexes showing long term levels only, then daily charts on the ETFs and futures.

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX trading through the YP / 1HP and back above all pivots! This is a big deal as it opens the door to 2162-63. That said, the pivot level does not yet have the "look" of support. When we see that, then we can really think about that higher target level. If playing the bull side obviously you'd want to see SPX remaining above 2014-15 in the coming week. 
SPY does have 1 day lift-off from the YP and above the Q1P, bullish.
ES after 3 days of healthy pause, 1 day selling, 2 days pause, broke out to upside and now above all pivots!

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX back to YP 4373 so that's a level to watch this week, COMPQ a bit below. Hard to know what to do with that QQQ YP as there is such a discrepancy between that and the cash index & futures levels (due to 8/24/15 spike low). If long against that then watch the others. NQ also still heading into resistance at 4129.

INDU / DIA / YM
Clear pivot leaders with INDU having the most "look of support" on the weekly, and both DIA and YM holding YP for 5 days (!) before the launch. If INDU stays above this pivot support area YP / Q1P 17048 & 17138 then we can start to think about 1HR1 / YR1 targets at 18584 & 18727 respectively, or 8%+ from here. 

RTY / IWM / TF
These have had a tremendous rally from the YS2 low, showing real buying in the market. Back above YS1 / 1HS1 was a tell last week, and now that needs to hold as support. That said, still a far cry from regaining Q1P, 1HP or YP pivots. 

NYA / VTI
NYA clear lift from YS1 / 1HS1 support the last 3-4 weeks, but still heading into 1HP & YP pivots. VTI pivots are at different levels, again likely due to 8/24/2015 spike, although VTI may not be exactly benchmarked to NYA, they are both very broad composites. 1 day above 1HP and YP, still heading into Q1P. 

Breadth

Despite strength in the USA small caps, which definitely gave a big boost to the market, these other two institutional indexes are not close to recovering the long term pivots levels. That is a bearish point. 

NYA W still well under YP / 1HP combo.

Here's the daily view; check the drop under the FebP, then low on FebS1, then up to the pivot, shuffle, then up. 

ACWI weekly looks similar to NYA, although the lows of the year bang on YS1. 

USA main indexes

Due to levels that tagged on Friday, this week will be slightly different. Usually I post weekly charts for all variants of the 5 USA main indexes, but since a few key quarterly pivots were clear resistance last week, I thought better to show those. The way I can do this is include all pivots on a daily chart. So the format below will be weekly charts with long term levels only on the cash indexes for larger context, then daily charts with all levels on ETFs and futures. 

Sum
So many levels in play with very important implications. A few indexes especially have a tight cluster of 3 pivots and a monthly R1 all nearby. If indexes jump further above long term pivots then semi-bear is over and bull market back! We could see a rejection, which of course keeps bear market idea alive. But given the strength of last week's up bars, some pause seems likely. A clear answer is easiest but sometimes it isn't and we check again on the next bar. Right now you could say indexes confidently approaching major long term pivots and that is bullish - it looks a lot stronger than creeping up with weak advance especially on lower volume.  

Indexes testing YP / 1HP:
SPY ES NDX (almost) INDU DIA YM and VTI. This past week was the first touch of these levels since the breakdown the first week of the year. In addition, most of these are near Q1P and MarR1 levels as well. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX still a bit shy of huge pivot status 1HP / YP combo at 2014-15. 
SPY cleared 1HP / YP barely, but resistance at Q1P (smaller crosses at the high) and MarR1 as well.
ES like SPY. 

So immediate levels to watch are the SPY & ES long term levels 1HP / YP 199.81 & 201.01 respectively and whether those act as support or resistance; then the medium term levels Q1P and MarR1 at 201.55 and 199.79 respectively. ES versions 1988 for the 1HP / YP, then 2004 / 1998 for Q1P and MarR1 respectively. 

I won't type up levels for each index but if you don't have pivots on your platform just ask through the contact page. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX approaching HUGE bull/bear line for mkt at the YP 4373. 
COMPQ also below its YP.
QQQ discrepancy due to 8/24 spike, although this doesn't make sense it DOES look like the level is in play. If long on that would want to see confirmation via cash index and fututes though, which hasn't happened yet. 
NQ still well under its YP  4432.

INDU / DIA / YM
What a huge decision for the market here perfectly illustrated on INDU! Note all the big turns on levels, 2014 low of year, 2014 higher lows, 2015 all big lows, etc. If bear market for real this should be stiff resistance; if this clears on a weekly close that would be big sign back to bullish!
Both DIA and YM like the SPY / ES are just above 1HP & YP but below Q1P and MarR1. 
 

RTY / IWM / TF
The low of the year was bang on the YS2s on these indexes. Sign of strength last week was jump above YS1. 

NYA / VTI
NYA healthy rebound from 1HS1 / YS1 combo. VTI already testing resistance cluster like SPY & DIA.

USA main indexes

From last week: "I will do a separate post for the medium term levels to watch for the week, ie, the Feb pivots. If the market drops back down, then at least some of these YS1 / 1HS1 levels will be back in play."

And that is almost exactly where the lows were with huge holds of SPX YS1 1895 (low 1891), COMPQ YS1 4455 (low 4425), NYA YS1 9350 (low 9325), along with oil CLJ6 1HS1 30.77 (low 30.56). 

The reason I am watching cash index, ETF and futures levels is because (unfortunately) all of them seem to be in play. Last year I was more focused on the cash index levels (which worked great for NDX on 8/24); but my plan to aggressively buy SPX YS1 at 1833 in late September never triggered as the market held YS1 on the then current ES contract instead. That convinced me to include futures on all levels, not just medium term as I had been doing. And the ETFs have the benefit of free real time monitoring on TradingView as well as several other sectors & countries that are otherwise more difficult to track.

Also, due to pricing differentials on the 8/24/2015 spike low, pivots are more different this year across similar asset classes. Meaning SPX SPY ES should be about the same, but 2016 pivots vary more this year than most other years, so I want to watch which seems to have the most influence on the market. Verdict so far is the cash index yearly levels, but there are definitely some moves coming off the futures and the ETFs as well. 

Now on to this week's report on the 5 main USA indexes. All charts weekly with long term levels only. If you are new please see the FAQ for explanation. Levels sometimes look to good to be true (see low of year on the Russell vehicles) but in fact all levels established at the close of 12/31/2015 and fixed for the current period, so that means all of 2016 for yearly pivots and the first six months for first half pivots.

Sum
Several key indexes clearly lifting from YS1s is bullish, especially when those levels "look like" support. The indexes that directly tested and held major levels last week: SPX, COMPQ and NYA.

Also, RTY / IWM / TF continues the bounce from YS2 lows (all very near exact), which was basically the low in the market on 2/11. They now are testing the YS1 / 1HS1 area from underneath; a recovery of this area would be major bullish development as this has been the weakest main USA index for many months (so not including sectors like energy). A pause is mixed, a rejection of course is bearish. I think this is one of the most important levels to watch for the coming week.

If the market goes higher, then DIA, YM then INDU may test YPs as well. 

We'll also have new March pivots on 3/1 and the first thing I will scan is whether any asset is above or below these levels. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX clearly lifting from its YS1 last week which is bullish. If the market goes any higher it will is possible that YPs will test on the ES (which will happen before a test of SPX or SPY). 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX continues the bounce back above YS1; COMPQ held YS1 as support last week like SPX; QQQ tested its YP! And NQ also lifted back above its YS1.
The differential between QQQ and others is due to 8/24/2015 spike low and very annoying. I won't go back to full bullish with QQQ above YP, but could add to bullish considerations if above and bearish if it is rejected. 

INDU / DIA / YM
All of these very clearly held YS1 and 1HS1 areas near the lows, which is why I recommended the buy on 2/12. And soon a very critical test of the YPs could be coming up. Right now INDU / DIA / YM are the market leader of these 5 indexes, so I will change gears significantly if these clear the YP / 1HP area. If rejected, however, then it looks like other bear market years testing the YP from underneath after a bounce, and this could and should lead to another significant leg lower. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Note the lows of the year on YS2s across the board; now all 3 testing YS1 / 1HS1 area. Recovery would be very bullish for the market, so this is one of the most important things to watch in the coming week.  

2015-16 can be summed up this way: YP hold, YR1, attempt to clear YR1, rejected, down to YP, chop with several breaks & recoveries, then sharp drop to 2016 YS2. So, 2015 YR1 to 2016 YS2. 

NYA / VTI 
NYA also clearly lifting from YS1 / 1HS1 combo which is bullish; VTI already above. 

Breadth

There are many breadth tools out there but here we just check pivots on the institutional indexes NYA (or VTI if you prefer) and ACWI for global stocks. 

NYA weekly below with long term levels only. Although there was a scare in early 2015 with one weekly close just under the YP, it was not clear rejection and quickly recovered. But August 2015 was another story with a huge break of the YP and clear rejection of the 2HP. The low was bang on 1HS2, but the failure at the YP in November was the tell, in addition to opening below all pivots for 2016. 

Now what? NYA has recovered its YS1 9350 and 1HS1 9424 twice, so as long as it holds above this support zone breadth is for real and market may continue recover. Back under these levels a third time, especially if we see a clear push down from 1HS1, would likely be very bearish. 

Daily chart showing medium term levels only. NYA was above the FebP on the first trading day, then fell below with the level acting as clear resistance for a few days after that. The result was a move down to FebS1 with a big recovery the next day. Yesterday's bar convincing recovery of the FebP, so medium term bullish above that level. 

Here's a very similar looking ACWI weekly. The difference between highs above YR1 / 1HR1 combo in 2015 1H with the strength of China, but equally clear breakdown in August. ACWI also managed to recover its YP briefly, but failed especially towards the end of the year with a clear rejection bar. 

This time it has held its 1HS1 / YS1 levels with breaking at all on weekly close; easy call more bullish above 50.47 / 49.77 respectively.

And here's the daily with medium term levels. FebP recapture looked good yesterday so very easy bull / bear line from here at 52.30, at least through the end of the month. 


FebPs

A lot of February pivots in play for the coming week. I am showing med term pivot only charts here (so no S or R levels, and no yearly or half year levels), to make these easier to see. FebPs are the small orange dots. Crosses are the Q1Ps. 

If bullish then indexes will recover these levels and then they will further act as support. If bearish then we'll see any more lower and/or a clear rejection. I haven't lised NDX based indexes or RTY since they are not quite near their FebPs yet. 

SPX 1930, SPY 192.21, ES 1925

INDU 16440, DIA 163.49, YM 16373

NYA 9536 and VTI 97.76.

USA main indexes

Intro note: If you are new to my terminology please see the FAQ page and especially the video posted there.

The must read summary of the big indexes. All charts are weekly with year & half-year pivots only.

Sum
Based on the 2/8 weekly bars (so 2 bars ago) that held INDU / DIA / YM YS1s and RTY / IWM / TF YS2s, the stage was set for a bounce and that came through. And last week, SPX / SPY / ES recovered their YS1s; NDX lifted from its YS1 as COMPQ & NQ recovered YS1s, and NYA & TFI recovered YS1s too. In all cases, the half year levels are quite nearby the yearly levels as well. So this is bullish action from major long term support (both yearly and half-year) on all main indexes - with YS1s in play for all except YS2 & 1HS2 on RTY / IWM / TF.

If looking at the charts below, just check the action from the large green crosses (YS1s or in case of Russell indexes YS2s).

And who knows, maybe the major low for the year is in and the market is on the way back to yearly pivots and then YR1s. Anything can happen. Right now we can say long term support held, recovered, or bounced on all 5 main USA  indexes. 

If the market goes higher it will will take significantly more advance to recover longer term levels ie the YP / HP / QP levels. I will do a separate post for the medium term levels to watch for the week, ie, the Feb pivots. If the market drops back down, then at least some of these YS1 / 1HS1 levels will be back in play. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX reclaimed YS1 1895 / 1HS1 1896 combo, bullish
SPY had held levels fractionally 2 bars ago, more convincing lift last week
ES lifted above 1866

So all 3 recovered YS1s, bullish. If lower the first to break will be SPX 1895-96, then the SPY and ES levels back in play. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX YS1 & 1HS1 recovered fractionally 2 bars ago, clear lift above last week, bullish
COMPQ also recovered YS1 / 1HS1
QQQ perhaps not best guide this year with big discrepancy in structure due to 8/24/15 spike
NQ also recovered YS1 / 1HS1 4130

So all but QQQ (which remained above YS1 due to pivot structure discrepancy) recovered YS1s, bullish. COMPQ and NQ do not quite yet have look of support. 

INDU / DIA / YM
All 3 had clearly held the YS1s / 1HS1s 2 bars ago, and put in some bounce from there as planned. The hold 2 bars ago is why I recommended a speculative buy on INDU / YM on 2/12. 

RTY / IWM / TF
All 3 bounced from their holds of YS2 / 1HS2 combo. 

NYA / VTI
Both recovered YS1s & 1HS1s, bullish.

FebPs

Quick one here, the market is testing FebPs on:

SPY / ES / SPX (as mentioned in the usual SPY daily section yesterday) at 192.21, futs 1925 and cash 1930 respectively. 

DIA / YM / INDU at 163.49 (above yday), futs 16373 (slightly above)  and cash 16440 (slightly above) per yesterday's close.

Also keep an eye on NYA FebP at 9536.

*

2:00 EST update. As I type SPY / ES / SPX looks rejected, but DIA / YM / INDU too close to call. Things could change tomorrow but right now the SPY / ES / SPX rejection is bearish until they recover. This would mean taking profits on some other recent longs (RSX, EWZ, EEM) if not out already, and adding back shorts. Best short candidates likely to be anything that didn't even come close to recovering its FebP and quick scan turns up QQQ, IWM, IBB, XLF; or go with what is above all pivots and add back any trim on TLT.

Monthly levels are not my favorite place to position because they can change status fairly easily; so to be clear this is just finessing long / short exposure from the recent drop and bounce. If bounce looked good to continue, then I'd say add more on what is above FebPs. But stopping at the FebP and turning down puts bear breakdown scenario back in play. Watch what happens into the close, and if nothing is really clear then just wait until Friday.

USA main indexes

Intro note: If you are new to my terminology please see the FAQ page and especially the video posted there.

The must read summary of the big indexes. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX needs to reclaim YS1 / 1HS1 combo
SPY level is lower due to 8/24 spike, and in fact 2/12 closed slightly above
ES also below but within striking distance of level 1866

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX YS1 actually hasn't broken on weekly close yet; big level to watch considering 2009-15? tech led bull market. 
COMPQ well below however
QQQ perhaps not best guide this year with big discrepancy in structure due to 8/24/15 spike
NQ well under YS1 

INDU / DIA / YM
All 3 of these clearly holding YS1s. Read this blog post for the importance of the INDU yearly levels. Holding here sets up bounce possibility, which is why I wrote about this speculative buy. 

RTY / IWM / TF
All of these are on YS2s. As RTY etc has led the USA market down, obviously the YS2s need to hold for USA stock bounce.
 

NYA / VTI
These are not exactly the same but similar broad composite cash index & ETF. NYA bit under YS1s, VTI more easily recovered. Watch these also to gauge strength of bounce if it happens. 


USA main indexes

Weekly charts and long term levels (yearly & half year) only:

SPX / SPY / ES
COMPQ / NDX / QQQ / NQ
INDU / DIA / YM
RTY / IWM / TF
NYA

Sum: The more of these that trade below YS1s, the more likely we will see a batch of YS2s on the low that counts. Considering some current YS1 breaks that we are seeing after the market stabilized for a few weeks, that's bearish. 

SPX broke YS1 last week, SPY still above, ES breaking this morning as I type. Bearish to break the YS1s as many YS1s tried to hold the market for the last few weeks. On the long term level, next support is far below ie YS2 / 1HS2 combo at 1748 SPX.

COMPQ broke YS1 last week, NDX on the level, QQQ well above (discrepancy due to 8/24 spike), NQ break. Barring big recovery today (anything is possible) likes like both cash indexes and the futures will be below YS1s, bearish.

Interesting, INDU and DIA well above YS1s, with YM testing this morning. So this type of relative out-performance over SPX and NDX makes INDU/DIA for now, first on watch for any bounces. This is especially true if YM continues to hold YS1. Conversely, if you are short (as one would be following this method, along with TLT and GLD longs), one could use DIA as hedge if you wanted to keep more gains on stock bounces. 

RTY / IWM / TF stopped at YS1 on the bounce, making visit to 1HS2 / YS2 area likely.

NYA broke its YS1 on close for 1 week, recovered, bounce, down but held, and looks likely to open below this morning.

Breadth

Continuing my series of integrating other tools with pivots, this post is about market breadth. There are many ways to measure: advance decline, cumulative advance decline, technicals on these like the McClellan oscillator, new highs & new lows, percentage above or below moving averages... the list goes on! 

The Pivotal Perspective is that we can just look at pivots on the most broad indexes. I've already written about the NYSE Comp ($NYA) here, but we can go a bit further. If the focus is strictly the USA market, I'd add the Russell via IWM for ease. Then we can go to institutional indexes (or ETFs that use those as benchmarks):

MSCI EAFE via $EFA, developed markets outside USA & Canada
MSCI World Index via $URTH, developed markets
MSCI All Country Index via $ACWI, developed and emerging markets
MSCI Emerging Markets via $EEM

OK, you could make a  case for the Russell 3000, or sticking with MSCI, and if anyone has any compelling arguments for why I should do things differently then please let me know. We've got 6: USA total including some obscure listings like ADRs ($NYA), a small caps index that is frequently traded and watched ($IWM); then global developed markets outside USA (EFA), developed including USA (URTH), developed & emerging combined ($ACWI) and emerging alone ($EEM). That should give us a good picture!  

And if we wanted to keep things very simple you could just do NYA for USA and ACWI for the world at large and that is what I'll show in charts below. First chart weekly with long term pivots only, then daily below that. NYA was above both HPs (half year pivots) and YPs (yearly pivots) from July 2012 all the way to October 2014. The RSI is an interesting study but I'll leave comments on that for another day. After that drop, NYA was able to hold support with struggle in early 2015, and broke down convincingly in summer 2015. Key tell: the YP was clear resistance in early November 2015. The 2016 drop is really not a surprise with this view since the 2015 yearly pivot was resistance and 2016 opened below both long term pivots as well. 

Now onto the daily with medium term (quarterly and monthly) pivots added. You can see the recent hold of the YS1, but NYA like most other indexes stuck under the FebPs as of close on 2/4/2016. Very simple, recovery of the FebP "should" lead to more bounce, but a second break of the YS1 would be quite bearish. 

On to ACWI. Guess what? It looks like the nearly same chart! Slight difference is that 2015 cleared YR1 for a few weeks, probably due to China rally, but had similar breakdown of 2HP and YP in later 2015.

Like NYA, ACWI opened 2016 below all pivots and went straight down to YS1, which held on the low. But despite the bounce, it too is under the FebP as of 2/4/2016. We'll see what happens. 

Weekly charts - USA main stock indexes

Showing weekly charts with long term pivot levels (yearly and half-yearly) for what I consider to be the 5 main USA stock indexes / ETFs:

SPX / SPY / ES
NDX / QQQ / NQ
INDU / DIA
RTY / IWM
NYA

SPX recovered YS1; SPY and especially ES have the look of lifting from the level as support. Also note lows the last few days bang on the level 1866 which I was mentioning all week in the daily SPY comments. But still below the major YP and HP levels by quite a lot. In my view, big levels definitely used for short covering, perhaps speculative buy, but no big investment buying until above at least one long term pivot level. 

NDX held its YS1 exact and this was pretty much what stopped the crash. Although QQQ levels "should be" like NDX, due to the 8/24 low they are quite different. So QQQ did not even reach and YS1 level although the cash index did; and very close to recovering its YP although the case index is quite far. The futures NQ also reached YS1 and held. Bottom line some programs may check in with QQQ above the YP / 1HP combo, but anyone buying should keep sharp eye on the NDX and NQ pivots to confirm.

INDU held YS1 / 1HS1 combo and decent bar up from there. DIA almost same look. 

RTY and IWM held YS2 / 1HS2 combo and now heading into YS1 / 1HS1 level which might be resistance. 

Last but not least, the NYA held its YS1 / 1HS1 combo as well. 

All of these, along with many other stock indexes / ETFs, held yearly and half-yearly levels in the past weeks. Most of these will open below February pivots, so we'll carefully watch the medium term levels (quarterly and monthly pivots) to assess the strength of the bounce.