Total market view

REVIEW
10/28/2017 Total market view: "Over the past few weeks I've been expecting some near term selling from INDU/DIA YR2 and/or SPX/SPY YR2. Dow simply soared above its level without one day of pause; but SPX/SPY did drop from YR2 for a few days last week. And then it erased 3 days of losses in 1 day. At this point I'm starting to think it may get through it, although I'll still be watching the resistance cluster of YR2 / 2HR1 at 2576-2582, with equivalent SPY levels 258.02-258.61."

And after a bit more shuffle from that SPX 2576-2582 cluster early in the week, SPX launched above 2582 on Friday.

SUM
Nothing seems to stop most indexes - as global leaders cool off USA tech again powers up to new highs. USA small caps IWM and Brazil EWZ being the glaring exceptions, both under NovPs after YR1 rejections. But nearly everything else is up.

While it is possible to have trading turns on quarterly levels - SPY, QQQ and NYA all at Q4Rs right now - in my view clearing long term resistance as SPX did last week is the larger positive because now this can act as support. 

Some sentiment measures are reaching extremes that we haven't seen since early August: equity put-call approaching relative lows of 2017, ISEE had two spike high readings in the last 6 trading days, and AAII bulls also jumped to one of the highest levels of the past 2 years. Normally this would add to downside risk but in this kind of environment perhaps we should see even more euphoria for the longest SPX rally without a -3% drop ever.* (* data from 1928.)

VIX and XIV remain great tells on the market - see safe haven section for details. The only fly in the ointment seems to be recent TLT & AGG strength combined with HYG weakness. HYG has anticipated several stock drops in the past, so currently below its Q4P is some warning for stocks. 

That said I'll stay fully on the bull side with SPX above 2582. If one wants to reduce risk, IWM is a hedge candidate. Also, if we see more DXY strength and global weakness, i may hedge current FXI and INDA longs with an EEM short. 

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - SPX above both YR2 and 2HR2 2576-2582. NDX looks like it is going for YR3 6377.

Safe havens - VIX NovP rejection and XIV NovP hold both on 11/2 were the tells for the next move of stocks breaking out higher. 

Sectors of interest - XBI and SMH both ~43-44% YTD. This site started pointing out SOXX / SMH in March 2016, and have mentioned SMH often this year. Admittedly I haven't been as focused on biotechs but YTD is impressive; SMH has been the easier trend. 

Global indexes - China FXI and India INDA, and associated KWEB and EEM, are all looking good despite recent $DXY bounce. 

OTHER TECHNICALS
New Lows oddly high considering indexes. Note NL level is equivalent to August that was in the middle of a sell-off. Currently reflected in IWM.

RSIs again approaching overbought on all timeframes on several indexes - Q M W & D. This historically increases the risk of a drop but again, like sentiment, we may see a blowoff instead.

VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
SPX above 18X forward earnings for the last few weeks. 

TIMING
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.

September dates
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) - stock index high 9/20 (miss)
9/26 - stock pullback low 9/25 (-1)
9/29 - non event

October dates (listed from 10/1)
10/6-9 - 10/9 mild pullback low
10/19 - pullback low
10/23-26 - 10/25 pullback low

November dates
11/13 mild
11/19-20 risk off
11/22 risk on

Global indexes and $DXY

Sum
DXY perking up has correlated with some stall in many global indexes, which have produced huge gains and been favorites for most of the year at TPP. Thus far ACWI, FXI, KWEB, EEM and INDA not too bothered by DXY move and still seem to me like they could go higher. EWZ the notable laggard, below Q4P. 

DXY
2nd time above Q4P from 10/20 has been the definitive move so far. YS1 (thick green) first resistance but now starting to clear. Should this continue, perhaps some pressure on global indexes. 

ACWI
No problems here, above Q4R1 and could see 2HR2. 

FXI
Favorite for months, above YR2 but some trouble at Q4R1. 

SHComp
Below NovP but doesn't look too bad with Friday's hammer. 

KWEB
Some shakeout after massive run but just held YR3 as support. 

EEM
Q4R1 difficulties but above NovP and 2nd time clearing 2HR2. Still looks fine. 

INDA
Looking good!

EWZ
One of the few stock indexes below Q4P with Friday's break. 2nd rejection from YR1 10/23 has been definitive. 

RSX
Also somewhat weaker, below NovP.

New highs new lows

When the market reached a similar levels of new lows in August, indexes were already dropping and VIX already spiking. What's going on this time? Also note early November 2016. 

Safe havens

Quick version
VIX and XIV continue to work as great tells for risk. After poking above OctP, 2HP and Q4P clear resistance in days that followed and back under all pivots on 10/27. NovP tested and convincingly held 11/2. XIV had a sell setup which came out to scratch as NovP held and rebounded the next day.

TLT and AGG oddly strong, with TLT also above its NovP. HYG is not confirming the move in stocks, currently below Q4P. 

This is happening with metals weaker, GLD below Q4P and GDX below 2HP.

VIX and XIV continue to be the best safe haven tells, but TLT strength and HYG weakness some discrepancy from the stock index moves last week. 

VIX
Pivot rejections have been the place to lift hedges in Q4. Only 4 days above OctP, and NovP clear resistance this week.

XIV
Held NovP this week, and Friday closed above 2HR2. 

TLT
Oddly strong - recovered 2HP, then held NovP, now back testing Q4P. 

AGG
Also held 2HP on the low, and back testing YP area. 

HYG
Not confirming move in stocks. Below Q4P and below NovP.

GLD
Staying below Q4P since 10/24 but not going that much lower yet. 

GDX
Also below 2HP but hasn't reached any support level. 

USA main indexes

Quick version today.

Sum
Bull trend continues. SPX clearing YR2 is a major positives. The only index testing long term resistance without clearing is VTI. 

Medium term quarterly levels now in play for SPX/SPY, QQQ, and NYA. If QQQ can clear its Q4R2, then YR3 will be next. 

Notably IWM not joining the party and below NovP. 

SPX / SPY
SPX clearing YR2 / 2HR2 combo - a huge win, and now this level may act as support. Q4R2 next at 2598.
SPY also slightly above YR2 / 2HR2 with Q4R2 already in play.

QQQ
Testing Q4R2, with YR3 above that. 

DIA
Has been the tell here blasting through YR2 without any pause and then clearing Q4R2 just as easily. Currently between levels with 2HR3 decently higher. 

IWM
Not joining the party and even below NovP for 3 straight trading days. YR1 near tag and rejection.

NYA
Above all pivots and above 2HR2, but stuck under Q4R1 for several trading days. 

VTI
Testing 2HR2.

Valuation and fundamentals

SPX continues to trade above 18X earnings, on both 10 period moving average basis shown in graph below and the weekly number from Thomson Reuters. 

$DXY moves no surprise to anyone following the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index.

Total market view

REVIEW
10/22/2017 Total market view: "Bottom line - INDU powering up above YR2 and then above Q4R2 was very bullish. Safe havens are weak. Bulls get benefit of doubt; but still watching SPX/SPY YR2, RUT/IWM YR1, and QQQ Q4R1." "TNX on the move; to my eyes, looks like TLT breakdown / TNX TYX breakout up is next move. If correct, GLD and other metals likely down as well."

SPX dropped from its YR2 area for a few days, then indexes came back powerfully on Friday. Safe havens (TLT GLD GDX SLV) all broke major pivot levels last week.

SUM
Over the past few weeks I've been expecting some near term selling from INDU/DIA YR2 and/or SPX/SPY YR2. Dow simply soared above its level without one day of pause; but SPX/SPY did drop from YR2 for a few days last week. And then it erased 3 days of losses in 1 day. 

At this point I'm starting to think it may get through it, although I'll still be watching the resistance cluster of YR2 / 2HR1 at 2576-2582, with equivalent SPY levels 258.02-258.61.

After all, several indexes are already above YR2s: QQQ SMH EFA EWG EWJ FXI EEM INDA and of course, KWEB.

I don't really have a bias for the next move. Often there is some temporary weakness near the end of the month, but this week is also FOMC which usually rallies into the meeting. 

DXY had a nice pop but YS1 currently looks like resistance. Any fade in DXY would quickly get the global leaders FXI EEM INDA back in gear. I've been pointing to these throughout the year especially since March. In particular China was the clear leader in August with FXI above all pivots as all USA mains broke at least a monthly level. Notably, SMH held its AugP as well and has continued strong performance since then. INDA had a deeper drop (blog post warned of trouble) but the low was Q3P exact and quickly rallied back above all pivots in early October. 

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - SPX/SPY at resistance cluster. If markets go higher this week, IWM will be near its YR1 as well. 

Safe havens - VIX lifted above its monthly pivot for a few days, but 2HP held on daily close and then Q4P turned into resistance as well. Another score for VIX! Other safe havens TLT GLD GDX SLV all broke major pivot levels as expected last week.

Sectors of note - XBI just had RSI lowest in a year while recovering YR2 and Q4P. Watch for a trade. XLF looking tired as QQQ got back in gear (recommended XLF as a way to add longs 9/18-19 and that has played out well, but some pullback or sideways looking more likely from here).

Global indexes - At some point mentioned EWZ and RSX most likely to break levels and that played out on EWZ. Global indexes have taken a breather with $DXY rally, but appears INDA, FXI, EEM are moving again. KWEB having a shakeout but hey after near 75% YTD what do you expect?

Currency and commodity - Oil catching a  huge bid with USO lifting above its YP for the first time in months on Friday. 

OTHER TECHNICALS
New highs new lows and MCO on daily level both suggesting a bit more chance of selling at the SPX/SPY YR2 area. 

VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
SPX above 18X forward earnings on both real time and moving average basis the last 2-3 weeks. 

SENTIMENT
Not as toppy as one might think Standard Put-call and Equity put-call not near any major low area. High value on AAII bears. But ISEE did have spike high on Friday and these tend to limit upside in the the near term.

TIMING
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.

September dates
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) - stock index high 9/20 (miss)
9/26 - stock pullback low 9/25 (-1)
9/29 - non event

October dates (listed from 10/1)
10/6-9 - 10/9 mild pullback low
10/19 - pullback low
10/23-26 - tough to say with 10/23-24H and 10/25L

November dates
11/13 mild
11/19-20 risk off
11/22 risk on

New highs new lows & MCO

NHNL D
New highs deteriorating somewhat after the peak value on 10/13, along with some increase in new lows. (Weekly version not shown still strongly in favor of stocks.)

On MCO it 'seems' like we should have had more of a drop before racing back to new high!

Safe havens

Sum
In last week's Total market view, "To my eyes, some sort of safe haven breakdown looks to be the more likely move." That played out with TLT breaking 2HP, GLD Q4P, GDX 2HP and SLV YP. 

VIX is below all pivots after moving above its OctP for a few days last week, and getting hit by 2HP and Q4P. XIV also above all pivots as it has been since 9/11, though had a sharp 3 day from from near 2HR2 all the way down to 2HR1 and back up again. That 2HR2 still in play and worth watching.

Other safe havens I don't really have a bias; weekly charts of TLT and AGG suggest bounce. Metals either way.

VIX
W: Off the lows but another sharp drop from very temporary spike.
D: And there are the pivots on play - above OctP for 4 days but 2HP and Q4P held on close and then smackdown.

XIV
W: RSI in toppy area; sharp drop from 2HR2 that found support at 2HR1.
D: Last week mentioned that a drop under 2HR2 would trigger a UVXY hedge which still had some gains before cutting on Friday with move above Q4R1. 

TLT
Broke under 2HP and D200MA but back to testing level and may try to come back.

AGG
Held 2HP and reclaimed D200MA.

HYG
Dip below Q4P which came back.

GLD
Fell under Q4P.

GDX
Broke 2HP big.

SLV
Drop under YP, but held Q4P.

USA main indexes

Sum
Last week, SPX/SPY dropped from its YR2 as NDX/QQQ continued lower from its Q4R1 top to fall under its 2HR1. Then on Friday, indexes came back powerfully - NDX cleared both levels, and SPX raced back to resistance. Current leader Dow has slowed a bit but already paved the way by clearing YR2, then Q4R2.

Given the move back up, I must conclude that the market has decent chance of going higher but still worth watching SPX/SPY resistance cluster 2576-82 and 258.00-259.75. Another big level that could come into play soon is RUT/IWM YR1.

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX W: Ordinarily I'd say small up bar outside the BB invites selling, but there have been 2 others like that in the run from August lows. RSI very powerful.
SPX W: In resistance area YR2 2576 / 2HR2 2582.
SPY D: At YR2 / 2HR2 combo, with Q4R2 slightly above those as well. Cluster 258.02-259.75.
ES Z: Above all pivots from 8/30, with rising 10 & 20MA holding as support.
ES 1: At YR2 / 2HR2 combo.
SPX sum: Amazing run; testing resistance area YR2 / 2HR2 2576-2582. First reaction down from 10/23-25 came very powerfully to again test level; decent chance of getting through.

NDX / QQQ
NDX W: RSI reaching overbought like the others.
NDX W: Launch above 2HR1, bullish.
QQQ D: Launch above Q4R1, bullish.
NDX: NDX had looked like a decent top with selling from Q4R1 that then broke 2HR1; Friday's powerful rally came back to clear both of those levels. Bullish. 

INDU / DIA
INDU W: Already powered above YR2.
DIA D: Buying slowing but above all resistance levels (OctR3, Q4R2, YR2) with next quite a ways up.
INDU sum: Slowing but maintaining gains after strong move up above YR2 and then cleared Q4R2 without any trouble; currently above OctR3.

RUT / IWM
W: Stuck under YR1 for 4 weeks. 
D: Above 2HR2; room to test YR1.

NYA & VTI
NYA W: Above 2HR2 is bullish.
NYA D: 3 days above Q4R1 then fall back below. 
VTI W: Near 2HR2.
VTI D: Lifting above Q4R1. 

Valuation and fundamentals

SPX continues its launch above 18X forward earnings, both on real time and 10 week moving average basis. 

Here's my record of week by week Thomson Reuters data from 2017 2H:

17.78
17.59
17.67
17.93
17.95
17.78
17.75
17.72
17.54
17.64
17.57
17.81
17.92
17.89
17.97
18.10
18.11

And here is the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. No wonder $DXY rallied!

Market top checklist

In a series, check the tag. Last post mid February 2017. Though I shifted somewhat defensive late July as well.

Bottom line  is some pause developing which I think will lead to some mild drop instead of SPX immediately powering up through YR2. But I also think this high likely to be tested, and DIA will have have to have some negative development, before a larger decline.  

1) Multiple USA mains on major pivot resistance, then rejection? (ps: Long term pivots count more for turns.)
SPX/SPY YR2 rejection
NDX/QQQ Q4R1 rejection
RUT/IWM YR1 near tag and rejection

INDU/DIA current leader soared above levels
NYA and VTI also not really any definitive move

2) VIX and XIV confirmation?
VIX 2 days above a monthly pivot; needs to stay above for any real sell-off
XIV 2 days under 2HR

3) Other technicals like RSI overbought and/or divergence, or higher timeframe issues?
Most indexes overbought across timeframes, but no divergence suggests pause and mild drop then test.

4) High tested with at least one lower high? 
No for INDU and SPX; Yes for NDX and RUT

5) Safe havens showing concern?
Safe havens weaker (though possible to have drop in stocks in rising rate environment, ie TLT and GLD also down)

6) Breadth, volume, advancing volume vs declining volume, new high / new low, MCO (McClellan Oscillator) concerns?  
Breadth OK. Volume diminishing on SPY weekly chart. Adv Dec volume turning negative. NHNL incredibly strong in Sept & Oct, started to turn a bit around 10/16. MCO negative from 10/17. Some concern here.

7) Sentiment extremes reached? 
Not so much yet on measures that I track - put/call, ISEE, AAII, NAAIM. There are others such as Investors Intelligence and CNN Money's fear/greed index.

8) Valuation concerns? Fundamentals weaker?
Valuation yes, above 18X only makes sense if market is really pricing in corporate tax cut.

Timing?
10/23-26 stronger than most.
10/24 also symmetry time target on INDU and SPX

Total market view

Review
10/15/2017 Total market view: "Similar conditions as last week - strong uptrends for USA indexes, but major pivot resistance in play across the board, RSIs overbought, weekly chart Bollinger band overthrows - and now with slowing momentum and some safe haven strength. The most likely move is some top and drop this week."

While this was somewhat true for IWM and QQQ, it was off for SPY and especially DIA which continued to power up.

SUM
Over the last two weeks I have expected limited upside due to: all 5 USA main indexes heading into major resistance levels (means Q 2H or Y levels), including two yearly resistance levels, most especially INDU YR2; valuation reaching above 18x SPX forward earnings by moving average and latest Thomson data for the first time this year; RSIs overbought to historical extremes across timeframes (again, most especially on INDU), and Bollinger band overshoots on weekly chart which tend to peak after about 3 weeks. 

So far this hasn't been the right take, but depending on how adjustments have been made and when it hasn't cost that much. Any safe haven longs on GLD for example (which worked spectacularly well in July and August) are out for small gain or scratch. In addition, 10/16/2017 Daily comment: "...fractional close above INDU YR2 on both cash index and ETF... So far it's still risk on. I'm a bit skeptical but will avoid any big counter-trend positions until i see things moving the other way."

This also demonstrates why it can be easier to add safe haven longs or hedge via shorts with tight stops, instead of cutting profitable longs and then trying to re-enter.

OK, now what? Most of the conditions are still in play, except that many indexes cleared pivot resistance levels that I have been pointing to over the past two weeks. SPX/SPY cleared Q4R1 and testing YR2 (cash testing level, SPY has bit more to go); INDU/DIA jumped above YR2 and even cleared Q4R2 without any pause; NDX/QQQ cleared 2HR1 but still under Q4R1; RUT/IWM highs still slightly under YR1; broader indexes NYA & VTI still point to strength in stocks.

If strength continues, then we will see SPX definitively above YR2 and then SPY follow through as well. If markets fade, then we could see SPX YR2 rejection along with weakness in current laggards IWM and QQQ. 

Given such strong momentum, even if we see some pause and drop this week, it is likely that it will be a rather temporary trading top. This kind of RSI and Bollinger band strength usually means divergence highs - ie, higher highs in price with lower highs indicator. We are not even close to this on DIA and SPY yet. 

VIX and XIV, while in areas of possible turns, are still saying risk on; and other safe havens (TLT AGG GLD GDX SLV) look weak. To my eyes, some sort of safe haven breakdown looks to be the more likely move as indexes push higher. But I'll still be watching reaction from SPX/SPY YR2, IWM YR1, and QQQ levels. 

Bottom line - INDU powering up above YR2 and then above Q4R2 was very bullish. Safe havens are weak. Bulls get benefit of doubt; but still watching SPX/SPY YR2, RUT/IWM YR1, and QQQ Q4R1. 

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - IWM and QQQ still under key levels; they could join others in rallying above this week, or may lead down if SPY and DIA slow down.

Safe havens - Watching XIV 2HR2. GLD still above Q4P, and TLT back to crucial area of 2HP and D200MA which has already bounced once. TNX on the move; to my eyes, looks like TLT breakdown / TNX TYX breakout up is next move. If correct, GLD and other metals likely down as well.

Sectors of note - XLE near YP; if oil weakens, practically only thing I know of below a YP to have a trend trade short.

Global indexes - With $DXY stabilizing, global indexes are off the highs despite maintaining status of above all pivots.

Currency and commodity - $DXY 2nd try above Q4P, but so far only fractionally above. 

Cryptos - BTCUSD 2HR3 5667, so far above. ETHUSD rather glaring lower high on recent move and slightly below OctP; Q4P at 276 significant support, then 2HP & D200MA combo both near 230-36. I think that area will test. 

OTHER TECHNICALS
New highs faded a bit last week, along with MCO into red. Not too concerning yet but still watching.

VALUATION & FUNDAMENTALS
If institutions paying more than 18X forward earnings then they are starting to think corporate tax cut is for real. At least this is how i view it.

SENTIMENT
Not screaming, with put-call measures a bit higher.

TIMING
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.

September dates
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) - stock index high 9/20 (miss)
9/26 - stock pullback low 9/25 (-1)
9/29 - non event

October dates (listed from 10/1)
10/6-9 - 10/9 mild pullback low
10/19 - pullback low
10/23-26 - trading top? stronger timing window than many

November dates next week

New highs new lows and MCO

Daily new highs & new lows a bit weaker compared to last week. This is reflected by QQQ and IWM.

Stll some chance of SPX SXY YR2 trading high if MCO stays red. The delayed reaction may have been slugglishness 10/6-17.

Bonds and rates

Two of the three bond ETFs I track, TLT and AGG, made definitive moves last week under YPs. This can be the start of something big so I wanted to look at bonds more thoroughly, and that means TYX TNX and somewhat ZB and ZN.

TYX is the holdout; still under its 2HP and D200MA. Both cont futures contracts already betting on move UP in rates. 

As we know anything can happen and no crystal ball but with TNX above 2.33 and AGG below 109.46, it seems that there is potential for major move UP in rates / down in bond ETFs which would likely juice financials. If this is going to happen then TYX needs to clear 2.90-91.

TYX
W: Back up to W200MA and top of W BB; finding support from 10MA and 20MA. Pretty clear resistance; the question is what happens if TYX starts to rally above that level.
W: Interesting - hold of YP yet stuck on 2HP. Only 2 weeks above 2HP, rest below. Above would be significant change in status if holds on weekly close.
D: There is the 2HP test in daily detail, with D200MA just above with slope starting to flatten out. MACD not 100% reliable but not - going on a buy. 20MA and 50MAs are curling up; and D200MA already worked as resistance once in Q4. Again?
ZN: Already decided - bearish. Q4P clear resistance then rejection. Fractionally under all pivots with second D200MA break this quarter. Also note high of year on YP exact!

TNX
W: Above MAs and pushing up. 61% Fib resistance in play. 
W: Above 2HP.
D: Lifting from D200MA.
ZN: More definitively below 2HP and 200MA rejection.
TNX: Technically stronger than TYX and already making a move above 2HP and above D200MA.

Safe havens

Sum
VIX again proved why I consider it such an essential supplemental indicator and great all-round market tell. On Thursday, with an ugly open, VIX tagged the Q4P in pre-market and was near the OctP for session. VIX quickly assessed 'no problem' and dropped big from there. Oh yes this was also a tweet in real time. Not to mention VIX has been below all pivots on daily close every day from 8/22 on, the day after the last key pullback low in USA indexes on 8/21. 

XIV also doing well, above all pivots from 9/11 and showed no sign of any drop from Q4R1, which cleared on 10/13 and held as support on 10/19.

The only thing we can say here is some VIX divergence off lows, and XIV testing 2HR2 which could look more bearish with a fade back under the level.

Other safe havens are weak. TLT had the 2nd YP rejection of the second half, and back down to a crucial support area of 2HP and D200MA. AGG also under YP as of 10/20, while HYG nicely confirmed risk on by holding Q4P and recovering above all pivots on 10/17.

Lastly, metals are holding pivots but have put in lower highs and to my eyes seem ready to break down. 

With TLT lower and metals looking weak the larger theme is interest rates and I will do a special post on these coming up. 

Bottom line is - risk on. Usually we see VIX and XIV divergence along with safe haven strength (& HYG weakness) before a big stock index turn. That isn't happening right now. Stock indexes will be even stronger if TLT breaks 2HP and GLD breaks Q4P as the next move. 

VIX
W: Weekly close low holding as support the last several bars. However, spike up to near 2HP was quickly rejected.
D: In fact, Q4P on VIX high and slam.
D: 2nd time near tag of lower BB has been bought. 
Sum: Risk on with VIX below all pivots since 8/22 on daily close. Some divergence compared to indexes with VIX off the lows. 
 

XIV
W: RSI overbought now, but no BB divergence yet.
W: Slightly above 2HR2, level to watch.
D: Slightly above 2HR2; needs to fade back under or reach Q4R2 for an good UVXY idea. 

TLT
W: YP rejection! 2nd time in 2H. 2HP still holding but if that goes, we could see sudden move up in rates. 
D: OctP resistance then Q4P rejection last week. Back down near 2HP.
D: 2nd recent test of this crucial 2HP and D200MA area.
TLT: Still above 2HP, below the others; but seems like major breakdown could be next move.
 

AGG
Below YP for the 2nd time in Q4. 

HYG
Good tell last week to not get too bearish was HYG back above all pivots on 10/17.

GLD
W: Above 20MA, but to my eyes looks ready for fast drop lower. 
W: Near tag of 2HR1 rejection; 2nd time this quarter. 
D: Recovered Q4P then quick move to OctP, just as fast move back down to Q4P test. 
GLD sum: 2HR1 rejection and weekly chart looks bearish; but still above Q4P. Good r/r short below that level (which is also likely associated with interest rates going up).
 

GDX
Still above Q4P and D200MA; if lower then will be at 2HP support again. 

SLV
2 tries above 2HP OctP combo and 2 failures. Still holding YP support as of 10/20.

USA main indexes

Sum
2nd half USA main leader INDU powered up through its YR2 last week. SPX reached YR2 and looks likely to power through as well. Both NYA and VTI are also above resistance levels, confirming the strength in indexes. However, both NDX/QQQ and RUT/IWM are not making the same move. They could play catch up, or could lead on a drop if others start to slow down. Either way, they are now first choice for hedging vehicles or possibly short trades for those inclined.

In the bigger picture, barring an event shock like N Korea or possibly Taylor appointment (latter being the biggest market risk with the largest chance of happening as I type), we are likely to see divergence highs on INDU and SPX for the highs that matter. This means higher high in price, with lower highs in indicators (Bollinger bands, RSIs, and ideally both). 

Still, for this week, watch the move on SPX set YR2s, and any retest of RUT YR1 area.

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX W: 4th weekly bar outside BB in a row - very rare! RSI power move means divergence high likely (higher high in price down the line with lower high on RSI).
SPX W: At major resistance; looks like momentum will carry it above.
SPY D: Its YR2 a bit higher than SPX version. 
ES Z: Above all pivots and MAs from 8/30; from there only 2 minor days below 10MA. Good lesson to never ignore daily chart buy in strong weekly uptrend (this one +5%) with approximate entry level shown by red line.
ES 1: Like SPX testing YR2 here, with 2HR2 just a bit higher. 
SPX sum: SPX testing YR2 area, with level already nearly reached on cash and continuous futures, with SPY a bit higher. 4th weekly bar close outside the BB is an incredible move, as is daily RSI overbought every day since 9/29. At this point, indexes may continue to to power up, have some reaction down then return to test highs, or end here. Given RSIs the last choice seems very unlikely because the market 'should' make a divergence high with this kind of strength. Despite the current momentum I'll still be watching how the market moves from SPX / SPY YR2s next week, because even strong trends often have counter-reactions from yearly levels. 

INDU / DIA
INDU W: Wow.
INDU W: Blast through YR2 without any drop!
DIA D: Through Q4R2 as well.
YM Z: Above all pivots since 9/11, with last tough of 10MA on 10/2!
INDU: Hugely bullish to power through YR2, because there have been market turns on Dow yearly levels every year since 2005 (including 2017 in a way, with 6/19-7/10 weekly bar lows all holding YR1). Even if markets fade, YR2 likely to act as support.
 

NDX / QQQ
NDX W: Not making the same move as SPX or INDU at all. All inside BB, RSI not yet 70. Laggy.
NDX W: 2 bars above 2HR1 but weak advance makes fade more possible.
QQQ D: High on OctR2 exact so far, with Q4R1 just a bit above. 
NDX sum: Not in the same league as SPX and INDU; lagging in comparison. Slightly above 2HR1, but high on OctR2 / Q4R1 combo. 

RUT / IWM
RUT W: BB divergence high already in place.
RUT W: Stuck under YR1 area last 3 bars. 
IWM D: IWM YR1 a bit higher than cash index. RSI divergence high.
RUT: Also seems more set up for drop with YR1 already resistance for 3 weeks on cash index, with weekly BB divergence and daily RSI divergence.
 

NYA & VTI
NYA W: Strong, lifting above 2HR2.
NYA D: Also lifting above Q4R1.
VTI W: Nearing 2HR2, with YR2 above that.
VTI W: Above Q4R1. 
These indexes both confirming strength, which tips scales to bulls if you consider these 5 indexes as a whole. 

Valuation and fundamentals

From the week of 9/29 on (ie Q4 to keep it simple), SPX price has been lifting above the 10 period weekly moving average of 18X forward earnings. I considered this significant because this valuation level acted as a cap at several points earlier this year. The launch continues.

This data is coming from Thomson Reuters, and each week I write down their current SPX forward P/E. Up to last week, this also had approached but not exceeded 18; and the latest reading is 18.1.  

My conclusion is that institutions are not selling into valuation concerns because the market is believing in the corporate tax cut which will slice the current multiple.

From 2H (first half looks similar, just more time 17-17.49 zone) weekly reading:

17.74
17.78
17.59
17.67
17.93
17.95
17.78
17.75
17.72
17.54
17.64
17.57
17.81
17.92
17.89
17.97
18.10

FWIW FAANG equal weight P/E is 57.30, down a bit from last week. 

Citigroup Economic Surprise not sustaining recent positive momentum. 

Total market view

REVIEW
10/8/2017 Total market view: "...All 5 USA indexes on major resistance levels, RSIs overbought across the board (Q, M, W and D charts for most USA indexes, excepting QQQ W & D and IWM W just about there), Bollinger band overthrows, and a more important timing date than many, I'm locking in some gains..." From Safe haven section: "TLT and GLD in places that usually would bounce."

RESULT
QQQ and DIA bit higher, SPY and VTI about flat, IWM down. TLT and GLD bounced.

SUM
Similar conditions as last week - strong uptrends for USA indexes, but major pivot resistance in play across the board, RSIs overbought, weekly chart Bollinger band overthrows - and now with slowing momentum and some safe haven strength. The most likely move is some top and drop this week.

See USA main index section for key levels. The most important of these is INDU YR2. There have been many historical turns on Dow yearly levels - in fact, major trading turns every year since 2005. 

But VIX and XIV continue to act unconcerned for risk, and all eight global indexes look that I track look especially strong. At this point I am thinking about a near term trading move and given the trend of this year probably not a major multi-month top. 

Bottom line - I am still thinking of some trading turn here. How to play it really depends on your role type of trader or investor in the market. GLD or perhaps TLT so far were easier than trying to short stocks. If trying that idea, short hedges would be slightly under for DIA and QQQ, about at cost for SPY, and have some gains on IWM.

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - pivot resistance levels in play are:

SPX/SPY testing Q4R1s 2556; if higher YR2 2576 not far.
NDX/QQQ lifting above 2HR1 6068 slightly; may tag its Q4R1.
INDU/DIA testing YR2 22937!
RUT/IWM fading a bit from YR1 1518 near test.
NYA & VTI both tagged Q4R1s and had mild reaction lower from there.

Safe havens - VIX and XIV still strong for risk assets but GLD, TLT, AGG and HYG all flashing some divergence warnings. 

Sectors of note - XLE had huge rally from Q4S1 up to YP and 2HP area. While there wasn't any rejection it hasn't really gone higher. This could be on the watch list for shorts off the YP. 

Global indexes - All 8 above all pivots. INDA had a shakeout that stopped on Q3P, then quickly recovered above all pivots. 

Currency and commodity - Global indexes jumping again with $DXY weakness. Only traded above its Q4P for 5 days. Still above OctP for now.

OTHER TECHNICALS
New highs new lows still look great for stocks. 

Post on Dow monthly chart RSI peaks - Only 10 years in the last ~100 had Dow RSI as high as now. 

FUNDAMENTALS & VALUATION
Thomson Reuters P/E has tagged 18 all year but not above. Last week - 17.97. Another reasons pros might be selling into any rally this week. 

SENTIMENT
Not screaming yet.

TIMING
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.

September dates
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) - stock index high 9/20 (miss)
9/26 - stock pullback low 9/25 (-1)
9/29 - non event

October dates (listed from 10/1)
10/6-9 - 10/9 mild pullback low
10/19
10/23-26

Global indexes

Time limits me to tracking these 8 - it would be more thorough to do base index plus ETF & futures for each.

It is pretty striking how good most of them look. While a few are at Q4R1s, several have cleared YR2s, YR1s etc and KWEB has even cleared YR3.

EEM lifting above 2014 highs and looks ready to jet; INDA had a bit of trouble on YR2 but came right back and also is popping. 

ACWI (often mirrors NYA)
W: Powering up.
W: Above YR2 from mid Sept.
D: Almost at Q4R1.
Sum: Looks like higher into year end; near term reaction from Q4R1 possible.

SHComp
W: A bear might be looking for 3000-3200 but that's not happening now. Breakout above earlier 2016-17 highs. 
W: Between long term pivot levels. 
D: Above all pivots, can't complain. Notice that YP test fought back in a big way in May and steadily up from there. 

FXI
W: Powering up.
W: Above YR2
D: At Q4R1 2nd time. 

KWEB
W: After 65%+ YTD this is not the place to position but still powering up above 10MA with no glaring RSI divergence. 
W: Above YR3!
D: At OctR1 but this can be held above YR3 with max low Q4P.

EEM
W: Breakout above 2014H!
W: Above YR2, above 2HR2.
D: At Q4R1.

INDA
W: Raced back to highs after deeper drop.
W: Just a little higher would look great, but already a bit above 2HR1.
D: Back above YR2, testing 2HR2 & Q4R1 area. Recovery of Q4P and OctP was good buy chance if not in on Q3P earlier. 

EWZ
W: Also bounced back nicely from rising 10MA.
W: Clearing YR1.
D: YR1 a few chances to turn into resistance but didn't. 

RSX
W: Also lifting above prior highs.
W: Rally from YP hold is now about +20%
D: Steady up, above all pivots from 7/25 on.