Quick version
VIX and XIV continue to work as great tells for risk. After poking above OctP, 2HP and Q4P clear resistance in days that followed and back under all pivots on 10/27. NovP tested and convincingly held 11/2. XIV had a sell setup which came out to scratch as NovP held and rebounded the next day.
TLT and AGG oddly strong, with TLT also above its NovP. HYG is not confirming the move in stocks, currently below Q4P.
This is happening with metals weaker, GLD below Q4P and GDX below 2HP.
VIX and XIV continue to be the best safe haven tells, but TLT strength and HYG weakness some discrepancy from the stock index moves last week.
VIX
Pivot rejections have been the place to lift hedges in Q4. Only 4 days above OctP, and NovP clear resistance this week.
XIV
Held NovP this week, and Friday closed above 2HR2.
TLT
Oddly strong - recovered 2HP, then held NovP, now back testing Q4P.
AGG
Also held 2HP on the low, and back testing YP area.
HYG
Not confirming move in stocks. Below Q4P and below NovP.
GLD
Staying below Q4P since 10/24 but not going that much lower yet.
GDX
Also below 2HP but hasn't reached any support level.
