Safe havens

Sum
VIX has been saying all clear for risk since 8/22, and XIV joined in from 9/11. Safe havens have been weaker recently, with GLD and GDX getting whacked from long term resistance (YR1 and 2HR1 respectively), and now both under SepPs. Last week TLT fell under its YP - fractionally, and not enough to say rejection yet - but could have held. AGG also under its SepP from 9/12. HYG confirming risk on, above all pivots and MAs.

About the only thing I can say here is XIV faced some resistance at previous weekly close high, and TLT 'might' recover its YP. But right now conclusion of this group of safe havens is bullish for risk assets. 

VIX
W: Back in single digits, with red line showing weekly close low.
W: Hard to imagine VIX seeing long term support near 8 but who knows.
D: Has been under all pivots on daily close all month.
VIX under all pivots on daily close all Sep, and under all MAs from 9/11. Still above 7/21-26 lows but these may test (daily close and price lows).

XIV
W: resistance at previous weekly close high.
W: Likely top zone from YR3 to possibly 2HR1.
D: Q3R1 but in play for 1 more week; above that YR1 and 2HR1 shown in red arrows.

TLT
W: Below YP, but with rally Friday doesn't quite have look of rejection. With level at 126.51 and close 126.20, i'm going to say too near to call.
D: Congested above rising 50MA and below falling 20MA. Still, could have held YP but didn't. 
TLT sum: Weaker last week by falling under its YP. With Friday's rally close just .31 away I don't not count that as definitive rejection, especially by look of weekly chart. Anything lower will look more like rejection, anything higher could recover YP.

AGG
Below SepP from 9/12 on. No bounce at D50MA, but still above D100.

HYG
Doing fine, above all pivots and MAs.

GLD W
W: Oops! Failed move above YR1 and high for year maybe in; also below 2HR1.
D: Under SepP.
D: Weak bounce from D50 so far. 
GLD W: So far high of year on SepR1 and YR1 fakeout with fall back under and rejection that also broke 2HR1. Currently under SepP. Exit call 9/11-13 after holding long from 7/11 looks obvious now, but it was a judgment call at the time. 

GDX
Also fell back under a long term resistance level 2HR1 and now under SepP. GDX failure at 2017 highs also part of decision to exit GLD.

USA main indexes

Sum
Healthy uptrends, with some mixed messages and rotation. NYA & INDU both above 2HR1; RUT has raced back to highs after deeper August pullback low, and and confidently approaching resistance so far. SPX and VTI are also testing 2HR1; SPX with a weaker advance last week that invites some selling. Lastly, NDX still above all pivots but testing its SepP and has been taking a breather as other indexes and sectors perk up.

SPY 2HR1 is a key level to watch next week, along with reaction from IWM Q3R1 and QQQ SepP.

SPX / SPY / ESZ
SPX W: Doji bar at top of BB with RSI divergence invites selling. 
SPX W: At 2HR1 - poke above, close below.
SPY D: High of month remains SepR1, after low of last month on AugS1.
ES Z: Above all pivots and MAs; buy signal 8/30-31 (back above all pivots, lifting above rising MAs, MACD flipping + 8/31) delivering another gain.
SPX sum: At long term resistance with weekly BB inviting sellers. That said, daily chart still above all pivots and MAs.

NDX / QQQ / NQZ
NDX W: Testing 10MA again.
NDX W: Did not quite reach 2HR1.
QQQ D: Still closing above Q3R1 and SepP.
NQ Z D: Holding SepP and D50; below D10 and D20.
NDX sum: NDX relinquishing leadership this month after selling at the highs early September. Testing SepP and D50MA.

INDU / DIA
INDU W: Invites sellers.
INDU W: Between long term levels.
DIA D: Also between levels, with some pause at RSI overbought.
INDU: Again USA main index leader, recent higher highs; not on any pivot resistance but weekly Bollinger band resistance inviting some pullback.

RUT / IWM
RUT W: Looks great. 
RUT W: At resistance but confidently approaching, unlike SPX.
IWM D: That was a fast move back up from 2HS1 & Q3S1, back above pivots, then to Q3R1 and near 2HR1.
RUT sum: Also at resistance, but approaching confidently and weekly chart looks strong.

NYA & VTI
NYA W: Wow - that is pretty rare stuff, 2 weeks overshoot of BB. 
NYA W: Liftoff above YR1 and also through 2HR1 - looking good.
NYA D: Testing Q3R2.
NYA sum - looking great, above 2HR1 and testing Q3R1 (which is only in play 1 more week).
VTI W: Pause at upper BB.
VTI W: Also at 2HR1.
VTI D: Traded above 2HR1 for 4 days but fell back for the weekly close. Note RSI reaction.

Valuation and fundamentals

10 week average of SPX 18X forward P/E in blue; SPX price in orange (weekly closes). Once again, tagging - but not exceeding - 18X. 

FAANG equal weight forward P/E (new pet project) 55, not much change from last week.

Citigroup Economic Surprise not quite getting into positive territory - better chance for $USD and bond yields to rally should this occur. 

Various views of oil

Technicals vary on oil depending on whether you are looking at current month futures, continuous futures, or the ETF. Let's check them out.

Oil is knocking on the door of major move up. Given higher timeframe charts and timing, along with mean reversion play of tech weakening, this could be worth a significant position. 

CL V
Volume peaked in August. Let's move on.

CL X
Increasing volume so we are good. Testing YP from below. Above 50.93 on this contract could be big. 

CL Z
Somewhat less volume than current X contract, but end of quarter. Also testing YP from below - 50.77 on this version.

CL 1
Already above all pivots most recently from 9/11. CL1 has reached this status more than a handful of times this year, only to disappoint. 

CL 1
Looks a lot better with moving averages - Above 200MA!

USO
Looks to be about the 3rd time above the 2HP with some chop in August. If this can hold as support then we should see a test of D200MA at least at 10.42 and then possibly the YP area at 10.61. This is decent risk - reward.

Now, consider monthly and weekly charts on USO. 

USO M
Lower BB tag, 8/2017 close higher than 6/2017, and making another rally attempt.

USO W
Bar above a rising 10MA and 20MA, still below falling 50MA and 100MA. MACD 5th time positive since the crash lows. 

Total market view

New readers please see the FAQ page for abbreviations. 

REVIEW
9/10/2017 Total market view: "4 of 5 USA main indexes remain above all pivots, and 5 are off recent 8/21 lows as weekly moving averages held as support. However, safe havens have been speaking loudly for weeks and the volume of their message just continues to increase. Should VIX move above its critical 2HP / Q3P level of 12.28 and then close above 12.46, they will practically be shouting - trouble for risk assets! ... Bottom line - 4 of 5 USA main indexes are above all pivots so I cannot be too bearish; however, the message of safe havens and monthly charts to me tilt the scales to a defensive view. This view will be proven correct and even more actionable if SPY, QQQ and VTI break under their SepPs this week."  

Result
My cautious stance incorrect as the safe haven alarm faded, and indexes jumped sharply from their monthly pivots from 9/11 and then added to gains the rest of the week. 

SUM
All 5 USA main indexes back above all pivots on 9/11, and both XIV and VIX together confirmed risk on for the first time since 8/10 on that day as well. Bulls have the ball. As daily indexes approach overbought and sentiment gets toppy we can consider the possibility of trading highs, but these are more likely to occur when multiple USA indexes are at resistance levels. Currently, only SPX and VTI are testing 2HR1s. 

Using a Pivotal Momentum strategy to be exposed to strength, recent emphasis has been on FXI, KWEB, possibly EWZ and RSX, then SHcomp, EEM, SMH, DIA (in August, but out and back in again, and QQQ. GLD worked well from 7/11 buy but daily comments this past week suggested taking gains with look of weekly chart and YR1 rejection. The model shifted to a more bullish stance with additional risk positions on 9/11. 

Bottom line - 6 weeks into the seasonal weaker months of August and September, and SPX had a minor dip of -2.95% and raced back to highs. IWM took the brunt of the hit at -7%. I'm going with the trend until price action forces defensive moves the other way, meaning VIX above 2HP / Q3P, and at least some USA indexes showing rejections of resistance levels and breaking monthly pivots. The questions from here are the global emphasis given their run up and potential $USD stabilization, tech suddenly a bit laggy, and which way TLT moves on its yearly pivot.

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - All 5 back above all pivots so now the question is what is happening at resistance levels. SPX and VTI testing 2HR1s and SepR1s.

Safe havens - Have to say VIX had it correct by dropping under all pivots on 8/22 and staying under each daily close from there. XIV regained status of above all pivots on 9/11. GLD fading somewhat from its YR1 but still above all pivots; TLT testing its YP will also be an interesting tell for the week. If TLT drops back under its YP, and XLF regains SepP, then XLF could be a choice for additional longs. 

Sectors of note - I haven't been watching XBI too carefully but probably should be with 41% YTD well above SMH. XLE perking up along with oil.

Global indexes - All USA indexes spent at least a few days under AugP. 4 of the 8 global indexes I track remained above all pivots throughout - KWEB, FXI, EWZ and RSX. SHComp and EEM almost there with a 1-2 day breaks and quick recoveries. 

Currency and commodity - DXY has dropped enough to no longer be "screaming bearish" as I was in May but until it clears at least a monthly pivot I'm not so concerned about strength impacting the global positions. Oil via USO and CL1 both showing a certain long term strength that has been rare this year - USO trying to lift above its 2HP.

OTHER TECHNICALS
Monthly chart RSIs at 20 year highs for SPX and INDU, but if there was going to be a drop things seemed to be set up a week ago and yet they raced back to highs instead. 

Starting to include analysis of new highs and new lows on weekly blog rotation.

While debating the GLD exit this week, I had a few comments on BABA. When to hold through a strong trend and when to take gains is a very tricky matter. Some thoughts here on the BABA post. 

VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
SPX back at 18X forward earnings - but still no weekly close above according to a smoothed 10 moving average system of Thomson Reuters data. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index on the verge of flipping back positive. Though USA stocks ignored the weakness, $DXY and $TNX both did not. Thus, a move back into positive should be bullish for yields and the sector most likely to move on that is XLF.

SENTIMENT
Currently mixed. Put-call remains elevated, but Equity only has dropped down towards lows. AAII 3rd highest reading of bulls for the year, somewhat balanced by NAAIM at relative lows.

TIMING
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.

September dates (editing from last week)
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1)
9/26 - looks bullish for risk
9/29 (adding this) - bearish for risk

New highs new lows

Weekly new high 10 moving average in blue and new low 10 moving average in red - also with red horizontal line at current peak in new lows. 

New low spikes this decade happened in 9/2011, 6/2012, 12/2012, 12/2014, 9/2015 and 1/2016. Though the recent spike matched 6/2012, in this instance SPX 2.95% but June 2012 -10.5%. RUT / IWM suffered more at about -7% but this was the worst of the USA main indexes by far.

And here's the daily view with new high average exceeding the new low average on 8/31. Recent similar incidences have been good times to commit back to the bullish side.

Various views of $BABA

Alibaba has been an amazing stock in 2017.  I was thinking about China tech in December 2016 and though one part of the reasoning was not correct, the conclusion was: "maybe China tech will takeover as a sector-like leader."

Anyway, I thought it would be helpful in conjunction with the last post and also while thinking about exit system (GLD this week) to consider a few views of this chart.

BABA M
Breakout above monthly close high 4/2017. At the time I would have thought that fairly late. 4 consecutive bars outside the monthly BB from 5/2017 on and now working on #5. 

BABA W
RSI is literally off the chart and I had to adjust the view just to see it up there. OK maybe some minor divergence but not really any of the threatening sort. If this dropped into 60-70 i'll bet smart money would be scooping that up.

BABA D
Above all pivots from 1/10 on; 8/11 came back to close above. Daily MACD turned up early in the year and hasn't turned negative since! Only 2 days below the D20MA since 3/8.

BABA D
Even the strongest trend will have resistance level rejections from time to time. These are Y and H resistance only in red, with selling days from these levels or near tags marked in arrows. 

KWEB D
This idea even more clearly shown by KWEB, which is up a very respectable 66% YTD. Selling at these levels without getting back in would have cost additional gains!

BABA D
Back to BABA and the moving averages only without price - 10 in aqua, 20 orange, 50 purple, 100 thin black, 200 thick black, and 400 thick brown. It is that kind of slope, especially on D20 and D50, that gets benefit of doubt. 

Pivotal Momentum

Some main principles
Usually best to focus on what has most pivotal momentum; ie, above all pivots (short term trading aside, this means, yearly, half-year, quarterly and monthly levels).
Enter or hold longs when asset classes hold or recover pivots.
Long term pivots (yearly and half-year) more powerful; medium term pivots quarterly and monthly next; then short term pivots weekly and daily - use appropriate timeframe for type of trader and trade.
Assess risk exposure through analysis of key benchmark index pivot status versus safe havens.
Majority of positions 'should be' above all pivots when markets permit; less active approach would focus on yearly, half-year and quarterly pivots only (ie allowing some moves below monthly pivots).
Can vary risk exposure with leverage to go extra long, or be less than fully long, or adding safe havens, or in some cases, shorting.
Risk asset classes that hold pivots as others break are often (not always) the leaders on the next move up; or to put it another way, risk assets that recover pivots first have more pivotal momentum and are often the next leaders. 

Additional tips on entries: better with some moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 400) with rising slope on your side; also either MACD (i've tweaked settings) turning positive or an RSI entry (full discussion of these ideas a bit too much for this post).

Additional tips on exits (exits trickier than entries): above all pivots is always candidate for hold. If long term & medium term level rejection, and some other technical concern on higher timeframe chart (upper Bollinger band or overshoot, RSI divergence), then out. If all moving averages have rising slope in a real power move, then often can give trend benefit of doubt.

Best days to position are when multiple key indexes or multiple safe havens say the same thing. I also factor in valuation, sentiment and timing as additional factors.

Pure counter-trend setups (ie buying support levels, below all pivots; shorting resistance levels, above all pivots) are rare; energy spent focusing on these will often distract from better trend moves. Similarly, buying something that is below yearly, half-year and quarterly pivot yet has recovered a monthly pivot will work occasionally - but usually better to focus on owning what is above all pivots instead. 

With this in mind, what risk assets held up best in August and were first choices for buys after 8/22?

Above all pivots throughout August
FXI
KWEB
RSX
EWZ

Slight breaks of AugP (above Q3P, 2HP and YP) then quick recoveries
SHComp - 1 day break
SMH - 1 day break 8/8, then hold from there
EEM - 2 day break
DIA - 2 day slight break 8/18-19, but under SepP 9/5-8
QQQ - 3 day break 8/17-21, 1 day break 8/10

Others that were a bit weaker
ACWI - benchmark global index, not really traded) 5 days under AugPs and all above SepP
INDA - 7 days under AugP, all above SepP
SPY - 9 days under AugP, all above SepP
VTI - 11 days under AugP, all above SepP
XLF - 13 days under AugP, Q3P and 2hP break, still under SepP
IWM - below Q3P and 2HP 15 days

Now turning to safe havens for clues on risk exposure, hedging, or trades in their own right
VIX above 2HP 8/10-14 and 8/17-21; below all pivots 8/22 on
XIV below monthly pivots 8/10-9/8
GLD - above all pivots 7/26
GDX - above all pivots 2nd time 8/15
TLT - held 2HP 7/28 on, held Q3P 8/1 on, above all pivots 8/23-9/12
HYG - below monthly pivot 8/7-30, then again 9/6-11

Safe havens

Sum
Safe havens looked threatening to me a week ago: VIX was finding support at its D200MA, XIV below its monthly pivot, GLD breaking out above YR1, GDX moving well, TLT at highs for the year and HYG breaking down under Q3P. To be fair, VIX pivots had it right and stayed under 2HP and Q3P on all trouble spots since 8/22. 

Last week many of those concerns vanished 9/11-12 with XIV back above all pivots 9/11, AGG under its SepP 9/12 and HYG above all pivots also on 9/12.

GLD looks to have put in a key high with YR1 and Q3R2 rejection, but still above all pivots and rising 20MA so may come back. TLT also recovered its YP after a 1 day slight break. In general, safe havens most especially VIX and XIV confirmed risk on 9/11+. Exits are trickier than entries - see GLD for more detail - on 9/11 I said err on side of taking gains on GLD (buy rec from 7/11).

VIX
W: Above 2HP only 2 bars, 8/7 & 8/14; subsequent bars poked above but closed below.
D: Below all pivots on daily close from 8/22 on.
D: Watch the lower BB this coming week for tag and reversal.
VIX again showed why I start with this as supplemental indicator - back under all pivots 8/22 on daily close and remained that condition despite several pokes above. Notably, VIX fell back under 2HP and Q3P on 8/29, 9/5 and 9/8. For next move, wathcing lower daily BB for tag and reversal.

XIV
W: High on YR3, recent pullback lows on YR2.
D: Back above all pivots on 9/11. 

TLT
W: Another sizeable drop after poking outside weekly BB. Also near 50% bounce on the 2017 highs. 
W: Holding YP.
D: MACD negative, and under 10 and 20MA.
TLT: Near 50% from 2016 high to 2017 low on the recent hgh. YP holding and will be interesting level to watch this week. If stocks fade, this 'should' bounce.  

AGG
Under SepP 9/12 on.

HYG
Above all pivots 9/12 on.

GLD
W: Falling back inside BB after 2 bar overshoot.
W: YR1 rejection after 1 bar above.
D: Q3R2 rejection; SepR1 on the high.
D: Chart including usual MAs and "chandelier exit" system in red. 
GLD buy rec 7/11, sell rec 9/11-13. 
Sum: Falling back inside weekly BB and under YR1, but still above all pivots and all rising MAs could try to come back. Since 2011 high, overshoots of weekly BBs have been rare and most have been near key trading highs. Exits trickier than entries, but given YR1 rejection, weekly Bollinger band, Q3R2 level also in play, i erred on side of taking nice profits from the 7/11 buy. If following system of 2 bars under 10MA, then also out. Rising 20MA and Chandelier are still in the trade, and above all pivots also still in trade - case to be made for holding half. Monthly chart look to me settles any question - exit was the right decision with resistance at 2016 monthly close high and 100MA.

GDX
Stopped at 2017 Feb highs (red horizontal). 2HR1 rejection showed with red arrow.
Still above all pivots, slight break of D20.
 

USA main indexes

Sum
Very bullish week for USA indexes, with DIA back above all pivots on 9/11 and launch from there. 

DIA/INDU leading, above 2HR1
SPY/SPX and VTI testing 2HR1
NDX lagging, above all pivots and Q3R1 but not at long term resistance yet like DIA
RUT above all pivots but not at long term resistance yet
NYA very bullish above 2HR1, likely due to global components.

In addition, after finding support on various rising weekly moving averages on the August pullback lows, weekly Bollinger bands are in play on all 5 USA mains. Overshoots are bullish in bigger picture but can lead to shorter term weakness. 

SPX - first weekly BB overshot since 12/5/2016, near minor trading high
NDX - tag but no overshoot
INDU - overshoot 7/31 bar near trading high
RUT - not there yet
NYA & VTI - first overshoots since 12/5/2016

Some slowdown likely for the week, but larger picture bullish. Watching response from SPX and VTI 2HR1s. Curiously, NDX has slowed to sideways for the second half and could be the first to fall under a monthly pivot on any weakness. 

SPX / SPY / ESZ / ES1
SPX W: First touch of rising 20MA (orange) was the pullback low, and 4 bars later new highs and pushing the BB.
SPX W: Testing 2HR1.
SPY D: High of month on AugR1. 
ES Z: Back on buy 8/30.
ES 1: Also testing 2HR1. 
SPX sum: Testing 2HR1 and AugR1. Reclaimed above all pivots 8/30, Sept pullback held the pivots, and zoom to new highs. 

NDX / QQQ / NQZ / NQ1
NDX W: Looks a bit more toppy with the weak up bar.
NDX W: Not on any long term level yet.
QQQ D: Recovered above all pivots 8/22, and holding SepP as support (same level as Q3R1)>
NQ Z D: Easier to see SepP hold.
NQ 1 D: Above July close high despite 2 drops below. 
NDX sum: 1st half leader, 2nd half hasn't done much. Back above all pivots 8/22 and also held SepP on lows in early September. Not near pivots resistance levels yet. 

INDU / DIA
W: Pushing upper BB after pullback to rising 10MA.
W: Blast above 2HR1, bullish.
D: Had been below SepP for 4 days, then jumped above both SepP and SepR1 on 9/11. Testing Q3R2 and no damage so far. 
INDU sum: Back above all pivots 9/11 and above 2HR1 is bullish. Testing Q3R2 and poking above. 

RUT / IWM
RUT W: Launch above weekly 20MA after pullback to 50MA.
RUW W: Launch above 2HP.
IWM D: Held 2HP & Q3P combo 8/31-9/8. SepR1 within reach but not there yet. 

NYA & VTI
NYA W: Wow, jump above YR1 and 2HR1. 
NYA D: Support on 2HR1 so far. 
VTI W: Testing 2HR1
VTI D: Also held SepP on pullback, jumped above Q3R1, to 2HR1 test.

Valuation and fundamentals

SPX price (orange) rallied back to the rising 18X valuation level (blue).

FAANG Fwd P/E 52s in August, up to 55 now. 

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index almost going back positive. USA stocks have shrugged off months of weakness, which means international versions likely looked much better. $USD and bond yields have not ignored this chart, with $DXY and $TNX lows for the year in September. 

$USD

Last full post of 5/17/2017 said $DXY looked "screaming bearish."

$DXY has been under all pivots every trading day since then, and now -6.2% lower than 5/17, and down -11.2% for the year. Now what?

Currencies in a trending mode are relentless. Consider DXY in rally mode from 7/2014 to 3/2015 - up 9 monthly bars in a row. Now it is going the other way, from 3/2017 lower high to 8/2017 6 bars in a row and working on a 7th. Sure some timeframes are getting stretched but there is nothing that says support has to hold.

Bottom line - support that could have held on monthly and weekly charts broke fairly quickly after a weak bounce. The only thing pointing to a possible turn are daily chart RSI divergence and EURUSD YR2. As of now I'm not too concerned about DXY bounce impacting GLD, GDX or global indexes. 

Q
At 38% (91.30) of entire rally from 2008 low to 2017 high, with 2 rising MAs to help out as support, 20MA 90.33 and 100MA at 90.71. While they hold? No idea - could just as easily to the 50% level at 87.
 

M
Broke through rising M50MA with a very weak bounce that doesn't even show up on this timeframe. On this view, test of monthly 200MA and 50% near 88 seems reasonable. Also note breakdown of 2015-16 lows.

W
Oversold sure, but not much bounce at weekly 200MA and below 2016 lows. It would take a move about that to get more pop on long side. Also, we are likely to see RSI divergence before a real turn.

D
Hasn't even touched the D50MA since April. You could say potential daily RSI divergence but that is it. 

Total market view

REVIEW
9/1/2017 Total market view: "As of 9/1 close, all USA main indexes are back above all pivots. This hasn't been the case since 8/1 due to IWM weakness in August. In addition, all global indexes I track are above all pivots as well, and held up quite nicely through August. VIX is back under all pivots. But... TLT and GLD are above all pivots as well, and XIV showed some bearish divergence on 9/1 by not reclaiming all pivots. As of 9/1 close, mostly long risk seemed appropriate, but perhaps not fully long and definitely not leverage with safe havens so concerned about the market. ... Bottom line - a blend of global indexes, DIA and USA tech via QQQ and SMH, GLD, GDX is doing fine here. Next decision will be to hold or increase risk positions and take profits in safe havens, or reduce risk while holding or adding safe havens. SepPs will make this relatively easy process."

Result
9/1 turned out a key high test for USA main indexes. A less than fully long approach with some risk reduction last week, while holding the stronger safe havens especially GLD and GDX, is doing very well.

SUM
4 of 5 USA main indexes remain above all pivots, and 5 are off recent 8/21 lows as weekly moving averages held as support. However, safe havens have been speaking loudly for weeks and the volume of their message just continues to increase. Should VIX move above its critical 2HP / Q3P level of 12.28 and then close above 12.46, they will practically be shouting - trouble for risk assets!

In addition, monthly charts are pointing to risk for stocks and strength in safe havens. Keep in mind that this is occurring with the INDU monthly chart RSI just matching its highest value in the past 20 years. 

In the 8/6/2017 Total market view I said it was time to focus on risk management. On the 8/21 low, the Daily comment concluded enough for a 'maybe low' and to watch for buys. Yet again I am stressing the theme of risk management for the coming week. Risk management can mean less long exposure, taking gains of the table, having more safe haven trades, hedging, or shorting per your participation style and view.

Bottom line - 4 of 5 USA main indexes are above all pivots so I cannot be too bearish; however, the message of safe havens and monthly charts to me tilt the scales to a defensive view. This view will be proven correct and even more actionable if SPY, QQQ and VTI break under their SepPs this week.  

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - Watching SepPs for SPY, QQQ, VTI; and cluster of SepP, Q3P and 2HP for IWM.

Safe havens - All but the usually reliable VIX are indicating trouble for risk assets. If VIX joins the rest - XIV, TLT, AGG, HYG, GLD, GDX - then I really think stocks will break down. 

Sectors of note - SMH / SOXX also near testing SepPs.

Global indexes - Partially due to $USD weakness, all 8 that I track remain above all pivots. Some look more toppy than others.

Currency and commodity - $DXY just continues to melt down. EURUSD happens to be testing YR2, level to watch impacting $DXY and thus GLD/GDX and the global indexes as well.

OTHER TECHNICALS
Monthly chart RSI on INDU matches high of 5/2007. 

New highs new lows looks more bullish for the daily view, but still some larger weakness on weekly.

VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
Pro selling at 18X forward earnings, again.

SENTIMENT
No current extremes; from optimism end of July to some fear later in August.

TIMING
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.

September dates
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13
9/22
9/26

World indexes

Not as thorough as USA main indexes or safe havens, but thought interesting to check these. If the market is making a real turn, then it won't be just USA indexes.

A few of these look toppy. 

ACWI
Still healthy above all pivots, but if higher then YR2 is serious resistance. 

FXI
2HR2 and Q3R2 rejections - counter-trend short candidate. Longs can hold above SepP.

SHComp
Pivots OK. Monthly chart near upper BB for the first time in years. 

EEM D
Only 2 days below its AugP then blast to new highs. Between levels - hold above YR2 and SepP combo. 

KWEB
Phenomenal run - re-entry above YR2 7/12 would have done great. 

INDA D
2HR2 rejection, testing YR2. Longs can hold above SepP. 

RSX D
Above 2HR for now. Below that would look more toppy. 

EWZ D
YR1 resistance with extremely high RSI. Countertrend short candidate.

New highs new lows

Daily version of this pointing bullish. 

NHNL D

But case to be made for weekly caution with fewer new highs in June 2017 compared to January 2017 and August 2016, and new lows increasing from February 2017.

Monthly charts

There are a lot of mixed indications at the daily and weekly levels but I think the monthly chart picture is tilting scales to risk off.

Of course the Sep bars are only 4 trading days old and anything could happen but right now there is a very consistent message on all of these charts - stocks are heading lower after reaching very high monthly RSI readings and below last month's close; key safe havens VIX, TLT and GLD are jumping. 

Additional point: INDU monthly RSI in 8/2017 matches previous high 5/2007; before that only months higher during 1995-97 run.

SPY M
RSI up to 76.8 on the 8/2017 close. As you can see from the line, this has been near high area the last ~15 years. RSI can go higher, and even if market drops this probably isn't "the top" but the combination of this level and SPY falling under the 8/2017 close seems like down more likely than up. 

QQQ M
Already under last month's close and some RSI and BB divergence with a lower peak in August compared to May.

DIA M
RSI on 8/2017 close 78.9 the highest since 2000 top, closely followed by 5/2007 value of 78.8. DIA also currently under the 8/2017 close level. 

INDU M
To see more history, here's the cash index. 

IWM M
Tested 10MA in August (all the others well above 10MA), inviting bounce. But current bar red.

VTI M
RSI has been higher but not by much. Also under the 8/2017 close.

VIX M
Up from the all time monthly close lows.

TLT M
Back above all MAs. I would be surprised at new highs but there is room to go higher. 

GLD M
Above 10, 20, 50MAs; testing rising 100MA. If above that then 2015 high area and monthly BB the places to watch.

Safe havens

Sum
Per pivots, the usually reliable VIX is undisturbed, below all pivots despite several chances to move above its 2HP / Q3P again last week. That said, 3 of 4 days last week looked like D200MA was starting to act as support, an interesting development.

But every other safe haven points to concerns for risk. XIV, bearish divergence to VIX, below its monthly pivot from 8/10 on and remained below its SepP from 9/1 on. TLT above all pivots with convincing hold of YP 9/1-5. AGG a great tell, above all pivots from 8/1 on. HYG, often doing a good job leading down before stocks, Q3P and SepP rejection on 9/8. 

GLD exploding higher and has been huge win for TPP, with a decent size buy rec on 7/11 and no exit suggestion thus far. Special metals post on 8/23 pointed out strength of GDX, which has gotten in gear for a 9%+ rally since that close. SLV bringing up rear, but also above all pivots from 8/28 on. While stocks have gone largely sideways, GLD, TLT and GDX have been great trades (in addition to the fast XIV short). 

Bottom line here is that safe havens have been speaking very loudly in August and continue to indicate concern for risk assets in September. If VIX moves above its 2HP / Q3P again at 12.28 and then above SepP 12.46, then they all shout together - reduce stock risk, hedge, or short. 

VIX
W: Could have closed above 2HP, but didn't.
D: No fear here, still below all pivots. 
D: D200MA starting to act as support! 
VIX sum: Still below all pivots gives points to bulls & risk assets. But interesting to see D200MA looking like support 3 of last 4 trading days.

XIV
W: Those levels look after the fact, but that's the whole thing. They aren't. From YR3 to YR2. 
D: XIV closed slightly under SepP on Friday 9/1, a bearish divergence compared to VIX. So far XIV winning. Still above Q3P, holding on several tests since 8/22.
D: After so many months of amazing up, below falling 10, falling 20, falling 50 and still slightly rising 100MA. This is what "rolling over" looks like on the daily 50MA.

TLT
W: Breaking out up. If higher, 50% from high to low in play at 130.15.
D: From late July, TLT showed clear buying on its 2HP and from there rallied above Q3P. Aug low bang on AugP, then to YP. After brief drop it tried again to clear the YP and did. 1 day slight pause, then higher, then a drop that held on 9/1, then soaring. TLT above all pivots! 2HR1 also 130 and change.
D: Adding moving averages and pivots only for clarity of trend - held 2HP and rising 100MA late July, then started to hold 10, 20 and 50MAs; slight break of YP but bang on rising 10MA; YP hold and rising 20MA on 9/1 low. This has been a partial buy from late July and potential add from August.

AGG
Part of the tell here, above all pivots from 8/1 on.

HYG
Often a good job at leading down, and stocks tend to follow. Note warning below SepP and Q3P, though recovered 2HP and still above that. 

GLD
W: Big breakout up. 
W: Cleared YR1 with ease.
D: After some sideways shuffle hear Q3R1, 8/25 definitive day holding D20, D10 and clearing the level. From there rocket up - no trouble at 2HR1, no rejection from YR1 and pivots have made this and daily hold from buy rec of 7/11. 5 daily bars from August outside the daily BB is sign of strength. We may start to see divergence highs this week.
 

GDX
D: After months of lagging gold, got going in a big way in last few weeks. Special blog post pointed out strength of metals 8/23. Currently above 2HR1.

USA main indexes

Sum
Larger trends for USA main indexes remain up - after summer pullback to rising weekly moving averages, most indexes bounced back to highs. Currently, SPY, QQQ, DIA and VTI are above rising 10MAs. Additionally, SPY, QQQ, IWM and VTI are above all pivots, with only DIA below its SepP.

The concerns are - weekly RSI divergence, high tests, DIA tilting bearish after long term resistance rejection, and Q3R1 resistance for SPY, VTI, and YR1 potential resistance for NYA.

Thankfully levels are going to make this easy - if SPY, QQQ, VTI and IWM remain above SepPs next week, then hold or add USA longs. If they break, reduce risk, hedge or short and play for a  visit to lows or range or larger pullback.

This week I will lead in with standard technical analysis weekly charts with Bollinger bands, followed by weekly long term pivots, then daily pivots.

SPX / SPY / ESZ / ES1
SPY W: All above rising MAs; upper BB curling and should be resistance if tagged. RSI divergence on high test. 
SPX W: So far normal consolidation; above YR1 from late May, near 2HR1 tag at highs.
SPY D: Q3R1 resistance for 4 trading days; SepP support for the same 4 trading days.
ES Z D: MACD back on buy as of 8/31; above all pivots and MAs.
ES 1 D: Test of closing highs shows by red line.
SPX sum: So far normal range consolidation after multi-month run. Q3R1 resistance, SepP support. Still above all pivots and MAs so cannot be too bearish; but high test in place opens door to another drop. 

NDX / QQQ / NQZ / NQ1
QQQ W: Resistance at upper BB with RSI divergence.
NDX W: Looks fine, above YR2 from 7/10 bar.
QQQ D: At Q3R1, and SepP same level.
NQZ D: Holding SepP, slight break of 10MA but above all others with rising slope.
NQ1 D: Above July closing high for 4 trading days but now below. 
NDX sum: Range consolidation, but upper BB clear resistance. Above all pivots, and QQQ bang on both Q3R1 and SepP. Hold bullish, break bearish.

INDU / DIA
DIA W: Above 10MA but distinct RSI divergence on recent high test. 
INDU W: Clear resistance at 2HR1.
DIA D: Under SepP 4 trading days; holding Q3R1 as support. 
INDU sum: Clear resistance at 2HR1 with weekly RSI divergence. DIA 4 days under SepP, but still holding Q3R1 as support. Due to long term resistance level rejection and current monthly pivot status, this is tilting more bearish. 

RUT / IWM
IWM W: Upper BB to lower BB and rising 50MA. 
RUT W: From 2HR1 to 2HS1, back to 2HP.
IWM D: 2HP, Q3P and SeP all clustered together for clear make or break level.
RUT sum: The laggard of 2017, IWM reached rising W50MA on recent drop but had a decent bounce from there. 

NYA & VTI
NYA W: Looks fine, pullback to rising 20MA and bounce from there, back above 10MA.
NYA W: YR1 resistance.
NYA D: YR1 with red arrow, SepP in orange arrow.
VTI D: Also below Q3R1 but above SepP.

Valuation and fundamentals

Once again, pro selling at SPX 18X forward earnings. I am using a 10 week moving average to smooth out week to week noise, but this idea is working pretty well per chart below. Valuation level moving average in blue, SPX weekly close price in orange. The one positive is returning back to positive slope after a few negative weeks, which allows price to potentially return to the same valuation at higher prices should that trend continue. 

New pet project: FAANG equal weight forward P/E 54.7, up fractionally from last week.

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index off lows, but still in negative territory since the end of April.

Total market view

REVIEW
8/27/2017 Total market view: "Main question from here is whether the 8/21 low and -2.95% decline for SPX was 'it.' There are indications of at least maybe: weekly charts of USA main indexes have had typical pullback to rising moving averages, sentiment picture has changed sufficiently, and VIX at 15+ has been the two other primary buying opportunities this year. ... Bottom line - Until SPY and VTI clear the monthly pivot, and VIX drops below its monthly pivot, stocks are not yet in the clear. While it paid to be buying back some positions on 8/21, it is not yet full green light for 100% risk and certainly not the place for leverage yet."

Result
8/21 low essentially tested and held 8/29, with SPY and VTI clearing monthly pivots on 8/30, and it was appropriate to be adding positions.

SUM
As of 9/1 close, all USA main indexes are back above all pivots. This hasn't been the case since 8/1 due to IWM weakness in August. In addition, all global indexes I track are above all pivots as well, and held up quite nicely through August. VIX is back under all pivots. But... TLT and GLD are above all pivots as well, and XIV showed some bearish divergence on 9/1 by not reclaiming all pivots. As of 9/1 close, mostly long risk seemed appropriate, but perhaps not fully long and definitely not leverage with safe havens so concerned about the market.

This is a Pivotal momentum strategy. Though once in an extreme while I will recommend a counter-trend trade (ie shorting what is above pivots on resistance levels, or buying what is below pivots on support levels); or occasionally recommend a yearly pivot buy or sell with the chance of a definitive move (like GLD 7/11, or SLV 8/22); nearly every recommendation is buying what is above all pivots or holds up best on a general market decline.

With that in mind, current positions would be heavily overweight global names especially China, DIA and QQQ / SMH, recent additions back in EEM, INDA; GLD, GDX and maybe SLV, and TLT went on buy late July. 

Bottom line - a blend of global indexes, DIA and USA tech via QQQ and SMH, GLD, GDX is doing fine here. Next decision will be to hold or increase risk positions and take profits in safe havens, or reduce risk while holding or adding safe havens. SepPs will make this relatively easy process. 

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - All 5 USA mains back above all pivots on 9/1 close. Current overnight action again weaker but so far SepP holding on a relatively mild pullback.

Safe havens - VIX below all pivots, but XIV could not make the same move. There have been several critical turns where XIV has been a tell.

Sectors of note - IYF and XLF not joining the party, still below AugP and SepPs. 

Global indexes - Tracking ACWI, FXI, SHComp, KWEB, EEM, INDA, RSX, EWZ - all above all pivots! FXI, KWEB, RSX and EWZ all above all pivots throughout August weakness. ACWI, SHcomp, EEM and INDA slight breaks of AugPs and recovery (somewhat like QQQ). 

Currency and commodity - DXY trying to stabilize but still under all pivots as I type. Even if it can bounce a little, anything below SepR1 is still a downtrend in larger scheme of things.

OTHER TECHNICALS
New highs new lows back in bulls favor. In addition, note all the weekly moving averages that I pointed out in the last Total market view which have so far been good for a bounce towards highs.

"SPY pullback to weekly 20MA
QQQ pullback to weekly 10MA and now near 20MA
DIA pullback to weekly 10MA
IWM pullback to weekly 50MA and lower weekly BB
VTI pullback to weekly 20MA"

VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
18X forward P/E resistance several times this year - currently 10 week moving average is 2486. New project: FAANG equal weight forward P/E, 54.3.

SENTIMENT
Recent bearish extremes on daily put-call measures near 8/21. AAII currently bearish enough with second bull-bear spread of the year last week.

TIMING
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.

September dates
9/4-5
9/13
9/22
9/26