Sentiment

Very quick version today; I missed last week. There are others watching these readings and more. The one thing I tend to focus on is relative areas. For example, daily 10MA of put-call at .92 is not historically very low; for example in January 2014 it was down near .72. But, .92 is relatively low for our recent market environment. Here's the chart.

The blue line is the 10MA. The red line is the recent low in put-call that was made just yesterday on 3/9. So, how many trading days from the start of 2015 have been below this area? Not many. It is hard to count the individual bars on a graph like this, and certainly I don't have time for this sort of detail, but quick eyeball does look like a percentile extreme. I tend to define these as top or bottom 10% depending on how you want to look at it. In this case, we can say that in excess of 90% of all trading days from the start of 2015 had put-call MA higher than here. So, this ranks in top 10% of less fear & more optimism. 

Recent ISEE readings on the low side, helping support the market. No edge.

AAII managers at 51 slight drop from last week, really no edge here.

The various AAII individual readings are not at historical extremes at all, but 37% bulls is the highest since 11/7/2015. 

Bottom line here 2 relative sentiment bullish extremes, near a timing window 3/9 give or take, and most important several attempts to clear levels and another possible rejection in process. For anyone playing short side it would be better to see VIX confirm though. 

TLT and GLD

TLT low near 1HP, jump above YP, tag of 1HR1, up to the high of year on 1HR2 / YR1 combo, now fade back to 1HR1. Got that? Just look at the bars and levels below. 

But on the medium term levels we see a monthly pivot acting as resistance for the first time in a while this month. 

So the recent range this month is long term support at 1HR1 127.87 vs medium term resistance at the MarP 130.84.

GLD started below its 1HP but jumped above later in January, then soared above its YP and very quickly reached its YR1 / 1HR2 combo. Unlike TLT, however, GLD cleared these and now may act as support. 

GLD above Q1R2 and well above its MarP. 

Here's a version with all levels. Better for YR1 and 1HR2 to act as support so that is 117.94 and 118.98 respectively. But if that goes it will still be above its MarP which could also try to hold. 

VIX

I really like the action on pivots with VIX and related vehicles. One glance at the first chart below and you'll see why. 

VIX W with long term levels only; and yes, weekly closes on the YP this year, last year's low very near 2HS1 and high bang on YR3. 

Here's the daily chart with medium term levels added. You can see VIX below the Q1P and thus below all pivots! It did come near the MarS1 but did not tag. Really VIX did not confirm any short setup yesterday, although did confirm a buy on 2/12 with a poke above the YP and clear rejection the next day. 

There are others: VXN, VXD, RVX. Here skipping to an inverse ETF which can help confirm a trade setup with stock indexes too. This was quite right on the August breakdown, also correct in staying under its YP in Q4, showing weakness of the market; below all pivots to start 2016, low very near YS1 then up from there. 

Lastly the VI futures which have high rollover. High of year bang on YR2, and recent drop under all pivots actually quite bullish for the market. Again not confirming a short setup yesterday, as it would need to lift above pivots. 

Currencies

There is no doubt that pivots work on the currencies, but this year has been relatively stuck in range with a few fake-outs. DXY D chart below, and you'll see the YR1 and YR2 was basically the range from May to November with the exception of just a few days that came back; and then when it finally broke out of that the high was bang on a 2HR1 level.

But this year it moved above all pivots in January but didn't reach any resistance; fell under the FebP and that was the only real move of the year, did break YP to be below all pivots but didn't reach any support level; then came back; above all pivots again, then another fail! What to do here? Not sure. Another very good technical strategist, AC Parets of All Star Charts, likes to avoid asset classes with a flat 200 daily moving average and maybe that is the lesson here. 

Or, with really 3 failed moves in DXY this quarter you could just say enough chop and not take any signal until next quarter. 

EURUSD close to being under all pivots again. It has had this status several times this year without a real drop. 

USDJPY was the best currency move this year with clear rejection of all pivots 2/2-3 and down to a low bang on 1HS2 which was also very near YS2 level.

AUDUSD is doing something interesting too, rallying from its MarP at the start of the month, above Q1P on 3/2 then above 1HP on 3/3 and now testing its YP! AUDUSD has been completely below its YP on a weekly close basis from May 2013! This would be a massive status change to clear that level. This move maybe helped by the gold rally. 

BTCUSD held YP as the low of the year several times, and the high of the year very near FebR1. Now back above 3 levels, and below only the monthly. 

What about individual stocks?

Do pivots work on individual stocks? Yes! 

See below for the simplest possible pivot analysis, long term yearly pivots and half year pivots only (no support or resistance) on weekly charts for: AAPL, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA, VRX, BABA, TWTR, YHOO, GPRO.

So whether you are a big fund or managing your own account for retirement, pivots can help with the position. This requires a more active management but hey we all want to ride the next AMZN and avoid the next VRX. 

The method below may even seem too simple to accept. Sell or hold FB this year? GOOGL or AAPL? When do I buy BABA? You could rack you brain with these types of questions, but if you are an individual or agile fund there are very easy answers all below. If you are a larger fund, then still there are overweight / underweight and hedging possibilities at signs of trouble. 

Here are weekly charts with long term levels only meaning yearly and half-year pivots. So only 2 levels to consider and the price. To make things crystal clear I am showing only pivots and not the usual red resistance or green support levels. 

Bullish above both
Mixed above one not the other; i guess if we had to weight one in importance just a bit, it would be the yearly
Bearish below both

AAPL notice bug run early 2012, break of 2HP late 2012 was first sign of trouble; then opened below both in 2013 so there is your underweight, hedge, reduce or cut. You were buying above the 2HP again in July, then crystal clear launch April 2014. Break of 2HP in August like the market first warning sign, and though YP held on first test, very key tell in Q4 with failure to recover that 2HP. Again under all pivots, no reason for big longs here.

Long term investors in FB have an easy job since buying with the jump above both pivots on huge volume in July 2013. Since then it looks to be just 1 fractional weekly close below long term support which came back the next week. Amazing buy and hold!

AMZN nice runs 2012-2013, then a stall. Clear jump again on high volume early 2015; recent weakness and recovery above the YP. So there is a bit of chop here, if you reduced (or hedged) that first weekly bar below the 1HP, then really cut down the bar that broke the YP, you would be buying back. 

NFLX also almost worry free from early 2013, though late Q4 2014 was reduce and buying back early 2015. Similar to AMZN, first a break of 1HP then a break of YP that is trying to recover. 

GOOGL holding both levels and no trouble in 2016 at all.

Compare to TSLA. Massive run mid 2013 with huge volume breakout and all above both long term pivots except one non threatening bar first week of 2014, until early 2015. Another jump above, but lower high, and since then weaker. 

VRX caused a lot of pain for big funds. It looked so steady and strong, but the first sign of trouble was the 9/21 week with the break of the 1HP on high (at the time) volume. At least some reduction or hedge there would have helped, but the fact is one week slam through the YP was a lot of forced selling and not much to do to avoid that rush for the exits.

BABA had all the hype on its IPO but really no reason to own this at all with a quick glance after January 2015, below both long term levels entirely since then. 

A few weeks of hope for TWTR in 2015, but just no way after that big massive volume break in April 2015. 

YHOO also nearly worry free ride from late 2012 to early 2015, but look how that YP and HP combo changed into resistance early 2015. This one was very friendly and gave you plenty of time to get out. 

GPRO also crystal clear avoid for most of 2015. 

If you took YPs seriously on XOM, you had  bit more shuffle but at least you avoided the big drop from 96 to below 70, and recently been buying back in. 

Breadth

Despite strength in the USA small caps, which definitely gave a big boost to the market, these other two institutional indexes are not close to recovering the long term pivots levels. That is a bearish point. 

NYA W still well under YP / 1HP combo.

Here's the daily view; check the drop under the FebP, then low on FebS1, then up to the pivot, shuffle, then up. 

ACWI weekly looks similar to NYA, although the lows of the year bang on YS1. 

Timing model update

I've written a few posts about this. Timing is one of four components of my total market view, but I've been doing a very fast and rough version of this work this year. These dates don't get all the turns, but so far the 2 dates on Model B have been very near or on the major lows. 

Possible Model B turn dates (established from start of year) have been: 

1/19, turned into 1/20 low. I didn't write anything at the time about the timing model.

2/11-15, turned into major low! I wrote about this in more detail here.

3/9 area has been on the map since then, although I also thought after 3/1 or so we would see more volatility per Model A into 3/11 which so far has been off. Too bad! Get what you pay for here, free and very part time... although it would been just utterly fantastic to have suspected this 3/9-11 area as a high in advance (instead of low as I planned) because then perhaps I would have pushed the longs from 2/12 even more aggressively. If anyone wants to compensate for full time market consulting, I'm available! :)

So, the next dates on Model B after this 3/9 area are:

4/1 mild
4/9 strong
4/22 medium
4/29 medium

Two speculative maybe shorts

Last week I very gently hinted at an ES short near 1988 but it was more in a post called Thoughts on signals because 1) we didn't have a clear reversal yet and 2) not confirmed by VIX vehicles, which usually gives the best signals. 

Now, just because we have levels doesn't mean there is a trade or position adjustment. Taking entries anytime we are a level will drive you crazy. The important part is seeing the reaction from them and acting accordingly. This will mean you will have fewer incidences of buying *the low* or selling *the high* but a lot fewer trades with a much higher win ratio. Like I said the other post, if you are very active and want to pick turns better to do so watching very short term charts (15m, 1 hr, etc) on SPY and ES charts and incorporate daily and weekly pivots along with the other levels. 

So, this is why I wasn't just saying buy S1s anytime they tagged on USA indexes because you would have had a lot of stabs before finally getting a winner. The key difference was the confluence of several indexes making the same move and a very clear reversal 2/11-12. 

So if we apply the same idea on the short side, we should only short after a clear reversal. We may miss the move by some points, but again, far fewer entries. 

Anyway, keep an eye on ES today because under 1988 means Q1P rejection, FebR1 rejection, back under YP and 1HP. But anything above 1988 means long term support holding at that is bullish. 

Meanwhile, VIX made it down to 16 on Friday. This is fairly low although a far distance from 2015 lows of 10.88 and 12.80.  Measured by daily RSI it is quite low. Anyway, VIH6 may jump back above its FebS1 at at 19.01. So if you wanted to be long VIX that is the level to trade against and see what happens at the Q1P at 19.82, or if market continues its march up then we can watch next support 17.20.

12:45 EST update. So far indexes SPY & DIA holding above levels which is bullish. It would not take much for SPY to drop back below, but have to say DIA looks good here trying to lift above its YP; still under its Q1P though. 

NKY and DAX

Sum
The bottom line here is 2016 so far is weaker for NKY and DAX compared to USA indexes, which is a change from 2015. While USA has rallied to major long term levels, DAX and NKY are not even close. If the market turns lower, these two will be back under all pivots well before most USA indexes and thus can be placed on short watch list. 

NKY just above YS1. So far exactly low on 1HS2 and bounce high on 1HS1 (both green dot levels).

Like most risk assets NKY is below Q1P but above MarP, after being below monthly pivots (orange dots) for most of December, January and February. Unlike several USA indexes, however, NKY is not even close to recovering any long term pivot level.

DAX above YS1 / 1HS1 combo not even close to recovery like USA.

Weekly strategy sum

As noted in the USA main index post, there are several indexes right at huge pivot levels and most of those have a tight cluster to boot. 

Last week already had pivot status changes on several major indexes SPY ES INDU (barely) DIA YM all cleared either 1HP or YP or both. But these are all under Q1Ps and we can further watch MarR1s for resistance as well. 

Basic bullish scenario: these clear Q1Ps and regain status of above all pivots. This would likely coincide with TLT breaking its 1HR1, although not sure of impact on GLD. This would mean adding longs above pivot support and possibly reducing safe havens further. 

Bearish bearish: clear rejection, which would mean reducing longs especially some late entries, and possibly adding back on safe havens or stock shorts against the pivots. 

Or we could have a pause and shuffle around this large areas without a clear move. Hate to say it but think this will be most likely. Or 1 day rejection then a recovery or something like that. You can also use weekly pivots for an additional decision point as well. 

Recent currency trades are out. DXY long or EURUSD short would be out for small loss. BTCUSD out for scratch if you were watching the pivots or yesterday's alert. 

I mentioned SOXX as a leader among USA indexes because it was first to re-capture a 1HP. It is right on its YP so if above that then *above all pivots!* We have not seen any stock index above all pivots in weeks (only the safe havens, TLT, GLD, & GDX). 

The real big gains last week were the emerging markets. If you held or got back in kudos. Comments on each below; i'll do separate blog post on these soon.
 
EEM entry tougher from here heading into Q1P & 1HP resistance.

FXI the weakest of the lot still could be first choice for shorts, especially if back under MarP.

PIN jumped and could have been bought 3/1, now between levels.

RSX buy was really 2/16-24; but could buy against the 1HP / Q1P combo and use that as stop area. RSI is highest in more than a year however, bit late.

EWZ buy also 2/12-24, or could have jumped in 3/1 above MarP and WP; jump above Q1P 3/3, now also above 1HP 3/4. RSI on the daily is highest in about 2 years and also at moving average resistance. 

If stocks turn down, the first things to move under all pivots are likely IBB, oil as CL, then probably FXI. 


USA main indexes

Due to levels that tagged on Friday, this week will be slightly different. Usually I post weekly charts for all variants of the 5 USA main indexes, but since a few key quarterly pivots were clear resistance last week, I thought better to show those. The way I can do this is include all pivots on a daily chart. So the format below will be weekly charts with long term levels only on the cash indexes for larger context, then daily charts with all levels on ETFs and futures. 

Sum
So many levels in play with very important implications. A few indexes especially have a tight cluster of 3 pivots and a monthly R1 all nearby. If indexes jump further above long term pivots then semi-bear is over and bull market back! We could see a rejection, which of course keeps bear market idea alive. But given the strength of last week's up bars, some pause seems likely. A clear answer is easiest but sometimes it isn't and we check again on the next bar. Right now you could say indexes confidently approaching major long term pivots and that is bullish - it looks a lot stronger than creeping up with weak advance especially on lower volume.  

Indexes testing YP / 1HP:
SPY ES NDX (almost) INDU DIA YM and VTI. This past week was the first touch of these levels since the breakdown the first week of the year. In addition, most of these are near Q1P and MarR1 levels as well. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX still a bit shy of huge pivot status 1HP / YP combo at 2014-15. 
SPY cleared 1HP / YP barely, but resistance at Q1P (smaller crosses at the high) and MarR1 as well.
ES like SPY. 

So immediate levels to watch are the SPY & ES long term levels 1HP / YP 199.81 & 201.01 respectively and whether those act as support or resistance; then the medium term levels Q1P and MarR1 at 201.55 and 199.79 respectively. ES versions 1988 for the 1HP / YP, then 2004 / 1998 for Q1P and MarR1 respectively. 

I won't type up levels for each index but if you don't have pivots on your platform just ask through the contact page. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX approaching HUGE bull/bear line for mkt at the YP 4373. 
COMPQ also below its YP.
QQQ discrepancy due to 8/24 spike, although this doesn't make sense it DOES look like the level is in play. If long on that would want to see confirmation via cash index and fututes though, which hasn't happened yet. 
NQ still well under its YP  4432.

INDU / DIA / YM
What a huge decision for the market here perfectly illustrated on INDU! Note all the big turns on levels, 2014 low of year, 2014 higher lows, 2015 all big lows, etc. If bear market for real this should be stiff resistance; if this clears on a weekly close that would be big sign back to bullish!
Both DIA and YM like the SPY / ES are just above 1HP & YP but below Q1P and MarR1. 
 

RTY / IWM / TF
The low of the year was bang on the YS2s on these indexes. Sign of strength last week was jump above YS1. 

NYA / VTI
NYA healthy rebound from 1HS1 / YS1 combo. VTI already testing resistance cluster like SPY & DIA.

Weekly strategy review

For the last week the two main points were:

1. How safe haven trades (TLT and GLD) acted against major resistance. As it turns out TLT weaker but GLD stronger.

2. Positioning with the March pivots; stock shorts would be easier, if indexes dropped below MarPs placing them back under all pivots. That didn't happen at all. To be fair last week I mentioned more cash if stocks were above MarPs, as this was more of mixed scenario (ie below 3 larger pivots, above monthly); yet this assumed already decently back to bounce scenario from 2/27 or so. 

As it turned out virtually all stock indexes opened above MarPs and rallied up quite strongly from there, all the way to major resistance levels (see next post). The mid February idea I had on emerging markets specifically EWZ, RSX and to some extent EEM was really good; but with the shuffle got in and out of those, unlike DIA / SPY did not say get back in 2/25. But you certainly could have - more on EWZ here. 

So how did things turn out? I may not have time to constantly update an entire Pivotal Portfolio, and that is going to be your discretion on how to use this stuff. But holding or adding any stock longs was right idea above MarPs. The one asset to drop under a monthly pivot was TLT, so a reduction on that possibly warranted depending on how active you want to be. Longer term investors should hold above long term support. More on that here. 

I also mentioned ways to shift more bullish in a SPY daily section here.

 

And that...

is what you call resistance.

SPY Q1P and ES Q1P stopping the move cold, and falling under FebR1s too. That said, if markets hold above the YPs (larger orange crosses) that is big picture bullish. 

 

DXY EURUSD and BTCUSD

Currency ideas all hanging by thread. 

DXY cleared all pivots but faded back to QP / MarP combo at 97.66 and 97.67. Clear hold of 1HP right now, but if below the QP today (?) then it is under 2 pivots and no longer much edge. Of course, clear lift above the QP would remedy that situation. EURUSD similar in reverse. Lastly, BTCUSD clearly holding MarP so it is a hold above that level.


EWZ

On 2/11-12 when INDU and RTY were holding their YS1 and YS2 respectively, but below all other pivots, I noticed that EWZ was actually above a FebP as of 2/12 and a few others like RSX and EEM looked like they could easily jump above their FebPs. 

This was very much the right idea, but when the market shuffled in late February I did say cut longs, and when added back didn't stick to the emerging market idea. This was partially based on ACWI (which is a broad based world index that I sometimes use to confirm ideas like NYA for USA indexes) falling back under its FebP.

But I am doing a few posts a day in free time, and some other basics would have kept in the trade or triggered re-entry. EWZ held its weekly pivots throughout the drop (not one hourly bar close below since 2/16), a reason to stay in. Or, if reducing an idea, and that idea is based on long above a monthly pivot, and that idea still is valid, feel free to get back in :) I am also not opposed to complementing the pivot technique with other tools. Probably some basic moving averages can help confirm or deny a setup sometimes, especially with slope of the the MAs. 

The other thing I wanted to point out today is that EWZ actually the first to recover a Q1P, although it as of pre-market it is still below its 1HP and YP. I think this is the first risk stock ETF to clear its Q1P. 

Someone definitely knew something was going on the last few days as there is big news today about former president Lula. OK, here is your efficient market hypothesis... yes the markets reflect all known information, but both that information and perceptions about it are both in a constant state of flux, as is price, and technical tools will show this. If you were buying the news you came in today. And forget about fundamentals, those are still horrible. If you were buying pivots you were nibbling on Brazil in mid Feb. I just messed up the hold and/or re-entry. 

I am posting now in pre-market but as I type it will gap up another +6% on top of 7% yesterday. Wow!

Here's the hourly chart above the weekly pivot (orange crosses) from 2/16 on.

Lastly here is a more standard view with simple MAs (10, 20, 50, 100, 200) and BBs. The red line is last years low. OK the rising 20MA in orange did work for a nice hold here if buying, and/or when 50MA held as support. The other momentum / trend tools below (tweaked MACD, momentum, RSI) were all more positive from early February as well at a time when USA indexes were all still negative. The jump back above last year's low also helped the pop  with a massive failed breakdown which has led to a massive squeeze. 

Timing model update

This is a rough sort of work in progress and i am not spending too much time on it. The two Model B dates this year (established in December, honest) have been 1/19 (1 day from low) and 2/11-15 (also a low), and the next is 3/9. Given the year I thought that the 3/9 date may also be a low but if that is the case we should see the market dropping fairly soon. 

Model A also pointed to increasing volatility from 3/1-11. 

So, either we are seeing inversion and up, especially if we see any major index (ES, YM, DIA, etc as pointed out several times this week). This kind of thing is annoying with the cycle stuff, and feel free to ignore this portion entirely as the pivots work well enough on their own. Or we are about to get a clean rejection and move down to test the MarPs. This would likely coincide with safe havens lifting and clear major resistance.

I still kind of prefer the latter but as usual let pivots guide positioning. If ES trades above 1988 I will scratch bearish bias and start thinking more about inversion ie 3/9 area high. 

Basic bull vs bear ideas

So as I pointed out in this post, USA leaders SPX / SPY / ES and INDU / DIA / YM have rallied back to their YP / 1HP pivot areas. Due to variances in pivot structure, there are slight differences in the levels. So far ES has come within 1 point of its YP / 1HP combo, while SPY is a full 1.00 below and SPX about 30 points. So this is the lower end of a key area for this asset class.

Likewise, both DIA and YM have tagged 1HPs, but the INDU cash was still about 80 points away. If higher then INDU will be the first cash index to reclaim its YP. 

The big cash levels are not to be ignored, and the key turns on 1/20 and 2/11-12 have had many of these in play. But the futures also are a tell especially if the pros see an extended market (like the FebS1 near exact on the 2/11 low), so let's watch ES 1988-89. 

Basic bull: ES clears 1988-89 as DIA gets above its 1HP then starts to test its YP area without much selling, or simply clears as we move to the cash index levels that are a bit higher. 

Basic bear: rejection starts anytime and down to MarPs to test those. 

Other: We could have an unclear move, like a small down bar that looks like a pause, or a weak lift through one or two levels but not convincing; and there sometimes there can be chop. Chop is the worst. 

So, if clearly bullish then we'd want to hold all the stock buys and asses as the higher end of resistance tests, and possibly reduce more on safe havens. If clearly bullish then opposite. 

It is likely that bull scenario would correspond with further drop in TLT, although not sure about GLD since that is holding up well. Basic bear would mean TLT up and likely GLD up too. 

Lastly, some of the sure thing setups come with an combo of index vehicle plus VIX. Then to be fancy on VIX we can also use and ETF and/or futures to see if they all agree. For now here's a simple VIX chart with all pivots. You can see QP held as support early January, and the YP was trying to hold as resistance in January. There was really one day with a close above the YP on 2/11, then recovery with a good reversal down and stocks have been rallying since. That is part of the reason why I recommended the DIA buy on 2/12. For now, back above the QP would be correspond with stock selling, or perhaps we will see VIX drop to its MarS1 and see a turn there. 

Thoughts on signals

Here's the ES daily chart. So after a huge breakdown there was a low on FebS1 (small green dots) near exact, recovery of YS1 (think green crosses), rally up to FebP which had some shuffle, then Q1S1 held as support twice, then we saw the FebP turn into support. The market made fast move up to the major resistance at the YP / HP combo at 1988.

Well, what to do here depends on what type of role you are playing, how easily you can get in and out, etc. If you were buying more DIA / SPY as FebPs cleared for the 2nd time in late Feb we might want to be reducing a bit here - especially if the market shows a real rejection. If it jumps above the level on Friday then we have an ideal long term hold situation. 

There is also a possible short setup and this is where your own style comes in. 

The tradingview.com feed shows the actual high at 1987.75 so with the level at 1988.50-75 a lmit order for a sell may not have triggered. If:

1. You are more in the bear camp, and
2. Like to be early, and
3. Skilled at managing risk

You could take a portion short here which is valid below 1988-89. 1989 also gets you the MarR1 resistance. A move neatly defined from FebS1 to MarR1? Yup, that could happen. 

The best signals in my view come with VIX confirmation which hasn't happened yet, and keep in mind the market may jump above the YP if decent employment news tomorrow. So this is the game of trading. Be early and have more quick cuts, or wait for clear reversals and have higher % wins. The clearer signals (like the INDU buy 2/12 and not 2/11) will probably not catch the absolute lows and highs. But as I have shown throughout this blog, it is more important to have most of your capital in the larger move; trying to catch tippy tops and bottoms all the time is recipe for headache. If you want to do that sort of thing then I think better to trade options on the SPY daily and weekly pivots.  

TLT and GLD update

If following The Pivotal Perspective you avoided a lot of the damage in stocks, started buying back 1 day off the low; and made great gains in the safe havens. Since these were the only things in the universe above pivots they were screaming buys, and then even adds as they cleared YPs in later January (for TLT) and early February (for GLD).

Recently I was shuffling the add portions expecting a safe haven drop if stocks bounced further, which was right for TLT and not for GLD. Let's take a look.

Wait, you mean those red lines at the top were there before the move? YES. From the open on 1/4/2016 yearly resistance levels like all yearly pivots are fixed and in play. So 1HR2 at the tippy top, also resistance at YR1 red crosses; so now the big issue is if 1HR1 lower red dots holds as support especially on a weekly close. That level is 127.87.

Here's TLT D with med term levels. You can see TLT below the small orange dot from early March, that is the March pivot. TLT has been mostly above the monthly pivot (except a few days) from December. Maybe we will see the S1 area 126.33 which is just a bit lower than the 1HS1.

So, if in from early January I think at this point hold portion above this area, 126.33-127.87. Any recent reduction below the MarP could be put back on if stocks indexes fail their major pivot area and we want to rotate back to more defensive. But if stocks clear their YPs and hold as support, we will be reducing safe havens further.


GLD also lifted from 1HP then jumped above YP and was at its YR1 / 1HR2 at the next bar. 3 weeks pause under YR1 but no red yet - that's bullish. If YR1 can act as support then the door opens to 124 1HR3 and maybe YR2 near 134.

Here's GLD D with medium term levels. Unlike TLT, it is still well above MarP support and much easier to hold above that. 

Lastly GLD D with all levels; there was some selling from YR1 but it has kept coming back. So far any reduction an error but we can see what happens. 

Currencies

Weekly report as time permits.

DXY weekly with long term levels only; recovery of YP and HP after 1 week break is bullish and targets 102 area if 96-97 holds. 

And here is the daily chart with all levels; the MarP is basically same the QP 97.67 and 97.66.

EURUSD below all pivots. Note hte small orange dots near yesterday's low is the FebP and not in play anymore. 

USDJPY held 1HS2 on the lows, but stil under YS1 / 1HS1. 

AUD above MarP and testing QP. It has been up here a bunch of times so maybe it will clear. IF so then headnig into 1HP above. 

BTCUSD pivots definitely seem to be in play.