Quarterly and Monthly charts II

March 29, 2016 Jonathan Ravel

Nearing the quarter close it is an especially good time to remind ourselves of the larger moves and trends by checking quarterly and monthly charts. I covered the USA mains here, included these charts for oil in today's post, and here are some other USA ETFs I like to watch.

Sum
IBB Q chart 2 bars with RSI 90 - an incredible parabolic move that had to have a dramatic end. This sector probably in a very long consolidation period, but M chart suggests bounce.
SOXX looks good especially above the M 20MA; another reason to hold longs.
XLF congested (between rising and falling MAs on both charts) but still relatively weaker index on many levels; another reason to keep on short candidate list.
XLE bounced off M 200MA but 10MA still pushing down and looks to me like it could drop back down to form some higher low.

IBB Q chart here. This had an amazing run and led the rally for years. 2 quarterly closes with RSI above 90! That is a parabolic move and anyone holding without any profit protection plan at that point was just delusional. A very long consolidation is due.

This might be setting up for a bounce. Small red bar on the lower BB and just above a nicely rising 50MA. But I don't think the quarterly chart will zoom back up to highs anytime soon.

SOXX Q chart looks pretty good with higher close (at current level) and RSI room to go up.

SOXX M above the 20MA which is another reason to be holding the long positions.

XLF Q held 20MA but below flat or slightly falling 50MA. Glaring lower high compared to 2007 of course.

XLF M held rising 50MA but stuck under 10, 20, and 200MAs.

XLE Q chart held the lower BB but under a rising 50MA.

And there is a bounce from a M 200MA with classic RSI and BB divergence too. But 10MA still pushing down and this may have to form some higher low.

Weekly strategy sum

March 5, 2016 Jonathan Ravel

As noted in the USA main index post, there are several indexes right at huge pivot levels and most of those have a tight cluster to boot.

Last week already had pivot status changes on several major indexes SPY ES INDU (barely) DIA YM all cleared either 1HP or YP or both. But these are all under Q1Ps and we can further watch MarR1s for resistance as well.

Basic bullish scenario: these clear Q1Ps and regain status of above all pivots. This would likely coincide with TLT breaking its 1HR1, although not sure of impact on GLD. This would mean adding longs above pivot support and possibly reducing safe havens further.

Bearish bearish: clear rejection, which would mean reducing longs especially some late entries, and possibly adding back on safe havens or stock shorts against the pivots.

Or we could have a pause and shuffle around this large areas without a clear move. Hate to say it but think this will be most likely. Or 1 day rejection then a recovery or something like that. You can also use weekly pivots for an additional decision point as well.

Recent currency trades are out. DXY long or EURUSD short would be out for small loss. BTCUSD out for scratch if you were watching the pivots or yesterday's alert.

I mentioned SOXX as a leader among USA indexes because it was first to re-capture a 1HP. It is right on its YP so if above that then *above all pivots!* We have not seen any stock index above all pivots in weeks (only the safe havens, TLT, GLD, & GDX).

The real big gains last week were the emerging markets. If you held or got back in kudos. Comments on each below; i'll do separate blog post on these soon.

EEM entry tougher from here heading into Q1P & 1HP resistance.

FXI the weakest of the lot still could be first choice for shorts, especially if back under MarP.

PIN jumped and could have been bought 3/1, now between levels.

RSX buy was really 2/16-24; but could buy against the 1HP / Q1P combo and use that as stop area. RSI is highest in more than a year however, bit late.

EWZ buy also 2/12-24, or could have jumped in 3/1 above MarP and WP; jump above Q1P 3/3, now also above 1HP 3/4. RSI on the daily is highest in about 2 years and also at moving average resistance.

If stocks turn down, the first things to move under all pivots are likely IBB, oil as CL, then probably FXI.

Big levels

January 23, 2016 Jonathan Ravel

The amount of indexes or ETFs that turned from long term levels - by this I mean yearly or half-year pivots - is rather amazing. These weeks are rare. The odds favor more on the bounce, but how far it gets we shall see - and use the shorter term pivots, especially the FebPs which will be in play in about a week - to gauge the strength. Of course all the levels below that broke and recovered by the weekly close will have to hold.

All charts weekly with year and half-year levels only (no quarterly or monthly). Listing comments first, then the charts. If you get confused to which is which, look for the light grey watermark of sorts identifying the index / ETF.

This post has gotten quite long, and I still didn't cover two categories - currencies and commodities namely, oil. I will do another post on that soon, but check the recent blog post on oil that pointed to the key level YS1 a day before the low!

USA mains stock indexes & ETFs
SPX / SPY / ES - all broke YS1s & 1HS1s, but recovered on close (hard to see 1HS1 on chart b/c so close to YS1)

NDX / QQQ / NQ - low on NDX near exact, QQQ disparate structure ie not on YS1, NQ more like ES

INDU / DIA - lows on YS1 & 1HS1 combo

RTY / IWM held YS2 / 1HS2 combo area. (Note: these two charts added on 1/27.)

NYA - recovered YS1, but still a fraction under 1HS1

USA additional stock indexes & ETFs
IBB - weaker bounce off YS1

SOXX - better move up from 1HS1. The Pivotal Perspective prefers SOXX over IBB here.

XLE - also YS1 low and recovery of 1HS1

XLF - I don't know what to make of pivots this year due to massive 8/24 spike, so not showing here

Safe havens & risk indicators
TYX - just slightly below its YP; recovery would put in back in congestion zone above YP but below 1HP; below YP remains bearish yield and bullish bonds.

TNX - rebounded from 1HS1

TLT - high on 1HR1 near exact

ZB - high on YR1 / 1HR1 combo, but could be pause and not rejection.

ZN - also high on YR1 / 1HR1 combo, but also perhaps pause and not rejection.

HYG - low on 1HS1

VIX - poked above, but did not close above, the YP for the last 2 weeks. decent reversal from the YP although some may point to closing below the low of last week as confirmation, which hasn't happened yet.