Valuation and fundamentals

Check tag for prior versions. Despite the decline in price, the forward 12 month P/E went up last week, according to data from the WSJ. 

Last week SPX was at 17.59x forward earnings, and this week it is 17.62. So potential support at 17x 1974 and resistance continues to drop at 2090 (it was 2105 last week for the same multiple). 

I won't go through the other indexes but similar idea. 

The fastest (and best) fundamental analysis I know of is the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index which measures relative beats or misses to what is expected. This works so well because what is expected is already priced in. So positive reports don't matter so much if they are on schedule.

For some reason the best place to view this report is via Dr Ed Yardeni. I've been talking about the importance of the zero line since including this topic on this blog. Whatever good news was reported last week it didn't change the look of this index. My view remains - it will be unlikely to make convincing new highs in the major indexes without seeing positive surprises in the data, ie, this index going positive (which is hasn't since early 2015). 

Total market view

Sum
I was bullish for USA stocks but pointed to limited upside in April, and that is how it played out. The rejection/break of NDX, RTY/IWM, EEM, and oil, along with the strength of safe havens TLT and GLD, all show concern for risk assets. That said, VIX and XIV are not so worried and they are right more often than not. 

After a relatively mild pullback off 4/20 and 4/27 area highs, valuation and sentiment concerns have eased. I would prefer a deeper drop for risk assets, at least down to MayS1s, but at this point it looks like the market is more likely settling into a range instead of making a sharp decline. 

1. Pivots
USA main indexes: Mixed bag with INDU/DIA and SPX/SPY still mostly strong, NYA testing, and NDX/QQQ and RTY/IWM below long term levels. All 5 main USA indexes below MayPs, but didn't tag MayS1s yet.
Safe havens also mixed with TLT and GLD strong above all pivots, yet VIX and XIV both not so worried about the recent drop by being below/above monthly pivot respectively.
On the global indexes, EEM high of year on the YP exact, and FXI leading down. 

2. Other technicals
USA main indexes reached overbought or near so about 3 times, and so the natural move was to work off that condition. That happened last week with SPY daily RSI reaching 45 along with tagging a rising D50MA and the lower Bollinger band. I think Friday was more a technical bounce than real buying.

3. Valuation and fundamentals
See recent post and previous tags. As long as there is election uncertainty and concerns about global economic growth I highly doubt institutions will pay above 18x forward earnings on SPX. This means resistance at 2105 according to current data, or just 2.3% upside potential.

4. Sentiment
Per the last Total market view post I warned that sentiment was toppy on 4/7 and 4/21. So far these warnings are proving correct as the market is about sideways since then. The bullish extremes have been worked off on the recent drop though. 

5. Timing
There were several timing dates for April, but only 2 for May: 5/9 and 5/26-31. Maybe 5/6 was a low -1 day from the window, we'll see. 

 

Safe havens

Sum
TLT and GLD strong and above all pivots; VIX and XIV both sending bullish signals for stocks. So mixed bag among the safe havens. If the market was genuinely worried then we would see that reflected in VIX above MayP and XIV below MayP. My conclusion is that market is settling into a range after a mild pullback, rather than undergoing a big drop. 

TLT
Up from 1HR1 acting as support, which is bullish. Above the MayP as of 5/4. 

GLD
Made up to to 1HR2 and high near exact so far. Daily chart above all pivots. 

VIX
VIX back under all pivots which is bullish for the market. VIX is correct more often than not. 

XIV
XIV above its MayP also a bullish signal for the market. Although I don't understand why VIX is so low, and XIV remains below long term levels. 
 

USA main indexes

Sum
Last week: 3 indexes above pivots but with rejections from AprR1s, and 2 indexes below long term levels.
This week: 2 indexes above long term levels, 1 testing; 2 below; so a bit more bearish. All 5 main USA indexes below MayPs but no tag of MayS1s yet.

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX above its long term levels; showing the medium term pivots on the daily SPY and ES charts, and below the MayP without tagging the MayS1 yet. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
2nd major break of YPs on the tech set; usually, 2nd moves are definitive. QQQ holding its YP and so it does seem like some algo activity there; and NQ not giving up with a recovery of its Q2P. Bottom line the YPs on the cash indexes are the most important, and it is bearish that the tech set traded below for a second week. That said, could have been worse. 
 

INDU / COMP / DIA / YM
INDU above long term levels, but COMP signals on pivots looking pretty good with low of year near YS1 and high of year near 1HR1. DIA and YM similarly above most pivots but below MayP. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Rejection of the 1HP / YP area helped seal 4/27-28 as a more important trading top. Like other USA main indexes, below the MapP without reaching MayS1 yet. 

NYA / VTI
NYA holding its YP by just a few points, with near exact tag of 1HP as support. 

Valuation and fundamentals

SPX continues to trade under 18x forward earnings as expected. Based on the latest data from WSJ, 18x iw now about 2105 resistance. This means new highs are probably a ways off in terms of time for the market. 

SPX current 17.59x forward earnings, so 18x resistance at 2105 and 17x support at 1988.

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index stalled at the zero line again so it is no surprise (haha) that the market has stalled as well.

Did we just see a major high in the market?

Pivots really help identify the more important turns in the market. No pivot, no turn holds up nearly all of the time. Or at least you will see a break & recovery on lows or overshoot & break on highs. 

My take on the 4/1 top was that the market "should" go higher. Similarly, I nailed the likelihood of a trading top as of 4/19-20 pointing to the AprR1s on DIA, SPY especially and recommended a hedging trade, but as of then thought we would see larger levels than monthly for a major top. 

Interestingly, we have seen larger levels in play since then, referring to the YP / 1HP resistance zone in RTY / IWM vehicles. 

So considering:
SPX vehicles AprR1 tag and rejection
NDX vehicles YP break
INDU vehicles AprR1 tag and rejection
RTY vehicles YP / 1HP area tag and rejection (bang on the futs)
VTI AprR1 tag and rejection

AND

Daily chart RSI overbought several times on USA main indexes

AND

SPX 18x forward earnings resistance, roughly

AND

sentiment extremes

AND

timing 4/18+ on a key turn

It is possible that we just saw a major top. Highs tend to stretch out so maybe we will see another test or lower high before a larger drop. MayPs will be telling. Also I will be watching VIX MayP carefully too - usually when VIX is not worried the market comes back. When VIX shows trouble, the drop is for real. 

Please check tags of valuation, sentiment and timing for detailed discussions of each subject. 
 

Total market view

This is a new tag as of today attempting to summarize the components of my total market view: 

1. Pivots
2. Other technicals
3. Valuation & fundamentals
4. Sentiment
5. Timing

Pivots are always #1, but the other categories just depend on the context. Sentiment can be middling until we see an extreme, and similar issue with valuation and timing. 

Pivots
See the other posts today for USA main indexes and safe havens. 2 indexes had bearish developments, and 3 of 4 safe havens were bullish (counting XIV inversely). NDX breaking YP is a big deal, because tech stocks are the real favorites in the market and the NDX pivots held at all the crisis points in the 2009-15 bull market. Also RTY / IWM failed very near its YP / 1HP combo.

Now anything can happen, and perhaps things change back to bullish next week, but right now the stock indexes are shaky. Any index trading below its MayP will be subject to further declines and likely test the MayS1. 

Other technicals
Several USA main index daily RSIs were officially overbought (70+) or near it (67.50+) approximately 3 dates or clusters. 3/17, 4/1 and 4/20. It is normal to have some move to work off the overbought condition. Whether that is deeper re-tracement of the rally or sideways digestion period remains to be seen. 

Valuation & fundamentals
I've been bullish on stocks as indexes cleared their YPs again, but at the same time was consistently pointing a likely valuation cap. It wasn't a new point but most clearly summarized here on 4/9:

"Point remains: we have a real valuation concern as I don't believe SPX will trade much above 18x earnings especially before election matters are settled. This currently stands at 2116 but has been moving considerably lower even in the last 6 weeks when I have resumed tracking markets this way. On 3/11 18x forward earnings was 2176! This means earnings are being adjusted lower. And with the Citigroup report, nothing is surprising economists to upside. Together these put a real cap on further USA gains."

Sentiment
In addition, I pointed to sentiment getting to an area of concern twice in April. 

4/21: "...the easy money from February - when we saw sentiment extremes on the other low side - has been made. With market participants so bullish, the market is more susceptible to a larger pullback or range bound digestion period."

4/7: "So given these three together, I think there is same warning for the market. It may not be 'the top' but perhaps this points to recent highs as potentially more important than pivots would currently indicate."

Timing
4/8 was near a 4/7 turn, and 4/28-29 may be a pullback low for stocks. There are two areas of May to watch, 5/9 and then 5/26-31. I don't think both will be highs. 

Safe havens

Review
Safe havens bullish last week: "Bullish: TLT recovers Q2P, GLD above YR1, VIX higher, XIV continues to drop from AprR1."

Sum
TLT back above Q2P, GLD big jump above YR1, VIX not worried but bearish action on XIV with rejection of both Q2R1 (close enough) and its AprR1 again. 

Scenarios
These are less likely to move as a group so I will stop listing bull / bear scenarios. Also, because VIX up is bearish stocks and XIV up is bullish stocks it gets a little confusing if you are not as fluent in these. 

TLT
Held its 1HP after 1 day break, and moved back above its Q2P. Depending on its relation to the new MayP this could be a good buy setup or avoid. 

GLD
Wow! Jump up to 1HR2!

VIX
A weekly reversal bar, but the daily chart did not close above its AprP. 

XIV
Not sure why VIX has been so low and XIV still well under long term pivots. XIV looks more bearish to me this week due to its near tag of Q2R1. 

USA main indexes

Review
Bearish scenario played out. "Bearish: COMP breaks 1HR1, NQ and perhaps COMPQ break YPs, SPY, DIA and VTI continue to drop from AprR1s."

Sum
Last week: 4 indexes above pivots and 1 mixed, but 3 of those 4 had reactions from medium term resistance, ie AprR1s.
This week: 3 indexes above pivots, with the tech set going from strong to mostly weak; also, RTY which I had been calling "mixed" ie below long term levels but above medium term levels had bearish rejection from its YP / 1HP area. So, 2 indexes had significantly bearish developments last week. 

Scenarios
It's all about the MayPs, and whether the tech set can recover any damage.
Bullish: Most main indexes above MayPs and/or hold MayPs as support. NQ holds Q2P and then NDX recovers YP.
Bearish: SPY etc below MayP and NQ under its Q2P. 

* * *

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX comfortably above long term pivots (ie YP and 1HP). SPY and ES above all pivots as well, but after spending two months completely above monthly levels at least a test of MayP is very likely, and perhaps it will trade below and we'll see a monthly S1. The green line on the ES chart is the contract high. I'm not sure how the futures can be at highs with index and SPY well below, but that was the level. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
Both cash indexes breaks of YP / 1HP levels, a bearish status change. QQQ pivots not as reliable as the other index ETFs due to 8/24/15 spike, but NQ futs clear attempt to hold its YP then breakdown. From there bounce on AprP and now on last chance support at the Q2P. The tech set will open below MayPs. 

INDU / COMP / DIA / YM
The COMP poked above then fell back under 1HR1 level. Otherwise INDU / DIA / YM look find above all pivots with a minor pullback from a AprR1 high. 

RTY / IWM / TF
RTY and IWM near tags of long term levels, and the futures were bang on the 1HP. Bearish rejection.

NYA / VTI
These still look OK above all pivots; like SPY and DIA, just a pullback from an AprR1 so far. 

Timing model

Check tag for prior versions, or the last post here in mid April. This is just a kind of experiment that I am doing. 

April dates & review
3/30-4/1 Model A&B combination turn (dates listed from early March) resulted in minor stock index trading high via SPY etc, and a pullback GLD low. 

4/8 Model A&B (also listed from March) resulted in 4/7 SPY low and 4/7 TLT high; so decent hit -1 day.

Then we got into a choppy period where A&B did not line up.

4/15-18 Model A; 4/18 near SPY highs but not quite, with 2 days of slightly higher stall before drop
4/22 Model B; basically a miss
4/28-29 Model A&B; possible SPY low, TLT high, GLD high, oil high?, DXY low? We'll see. If SPY needs to be up next week and above its MayP for that 4/28-29 to stick as a turn. 

May (easier than April)
5/9 Model A & B
5/26-27 Model A
5/31 Model B

 

 

 

Valuation and fundamentals

Check the tags for prior versions. My consistent basic points have been:

1. Smart $ unlikely to pay above 18x SPX forward earnings; and
2. Citigroup Economic Surprise index would have to move into decently positive territory for a strong breakout above 2015 highs.

What has happened? According to WSJ data, the forward earning estimate of SPX was near 120 in mid March, then declined. There are some odd jumps in this data so take any individual reading with grain of salt. For example, after listing about 118.50 the first week of April and then 117.50 the second week, somehow it was 112.50 the week of 4/15. This made the P/E jump above 18 for one week. But with earnings back to 117.50 and 117, the next 2 weeks, the P/E has returned to 17.8 for the week of 4/22 and 17.65 the week of 4/29. 

So, the point here is that the only time SPX appeared to move above 18x forward earnings was an odd skip in the data. Otherwise since tracking this from early March the my spreadsheet looks like this:

Date   Est earnings Est P/E
3/11   120.93   16.72
3/18   120.21   17.05
3/25   116.01   17.55
4/01   118.51   17.49
4/08   117.61   17.41
4/15   112.47   18.50
4/22   117.50   17.80
4/29   117.01   17.65

So basically the market has complied with this idea so far, and SPX 18x has been resistance. Maybe Bloomberg (what i used to use and track daily when at a hedge fund) has better data. 

Anyway using the current estimate, 17x support 1989 and 18x resistance 2106.

NDX 17.95x, so 18x level breaking slightly. 17x 4111, 18x 4353.
INDU 16.93x, so possible resistance at 17x. In fact, the two weeks near the highs were 17.06 and 17.15. 17x even is now 17845.
RTY 17.52x so 17 1096x and 18x 1160.

Yardeni PDF of the Citigroup Economic Surprise index. This stalled at the zero line so it should be no surprise that markets have stalled as well. 

Safe havens

Review
Mostly bearish for safe havens. "Bearish safe havens: TLT AprR1 rejection, GLD YR1 rejection, VIX continuing lower and XIV up."

Sum
TLT bearish status change, under Q2P for the first time in months. GLD continuing to chop around the YR1. VIX looks fine, but XIV drop from AprR1 like some USA main indexes.

Scenarios
Bullish: TLT recovers Q2P, GLD above YR1, VIX higher, XIV continues to drop from AprR1.

Bearish: TLT breaks 1HR1, GLD more rejection of YR1, VIX lower and XIV back up to AprR1.

TLT
TLT back near 1HR1, and under Q2P - the first time under both medium term levels since 1/5/2016. It is likely that TLT weakness will limit the pullback damage in USA indexes and increase the chance we see YP area test in RTY, the one USA index still under long term levels. Conversely, TLT recovering Q2P would point to further declines for USA stocks. 

GLD
GLD continuing to chop around teh 1HR2 / YR1 combo, without being able to advance further but not dropping either. 10th week of consolidation after the 6 week rally, most of which was done in 2 weeks!

VIX
VIX W for context, as we won't be seeing any long term support on the low, at least not this half. VIX D was not on any pivot. Market not worried until VIX is above at least that monthly pivot. 

XIV
I am not sure why VIX is so low yet XIV remains under long term pivots. XIV D pullback from AprR1 like some USA indexes. 

USA main indexes

Review
Last week more bullish than bearish, although COMP faded back near its 1HR1 by Friday. "Bullish: NYA holds YP 10302, COMP clears 1HR1 6311 (the only pivot resistance nearby on any of these indexes, see Dow set for details)." 

Sum
Last week: 4 strong, 1 mixed. 
This week: 4 indexes remain in long term up-trends, but 3 of those had reactions from medium term resistance. The mixed RTY set still under long term pivots but above both medium term pivots and exceeded AprR1.

Scenarios
Bullish: COMP holds 1HR1 6311, NQ and then COMPQ hold YPs, SPY, DIA, VTI make another try for AprR1s.
Bearish: COMP breaks 1HR1, NQ and perhaps COMPQ break YPs, SPY, DIA and VTI continue to drop from AprR1s. 

SPX / SPY / ES
SPX weekly bar suggests drop, although not on any long term pivot level. SPY and ES daily charts including quarterly and monthly pivots show clear resistance at the AprR1s. 

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX and COMPQ still above long term pivots. NQ again tested and held its YP; level to watch from here.

INDU / COMP / DIA / YM
Bad tick on the INDU low, but the weekly close high could be interesting level to watch for resistance. COMP back under its 1HR1 would add to bearish concern. DIA and YM clear resistance at the AprR1s. 

RTY / IWM / TF
Looks like RTY and others could test its 1HP / YP combo, as IWM and TF cleared AprR1s on Friday. 

NYA / VTI
NYA looking good too, above its AprR1. VTI looks more like SPY and DIA, 2 day top and then drop from monthly resistance. 

Valuation and fundamentals

Check tags for prior versions.

OK, maybe Bloomberg is better. How is it possible that WSJ is reporting SPX earnings 112 one week and 117 the next week? I don't know. Take these #s with a grain of salt. Rely on the pivots.

SPX forward earnings 17.80x, support 17x 1997, resist 18x 2115.
NDX 18.79x, support 18x 4285, resist 19x 4524.
INDU 17.15x, support 17x 17845, resist 18x 18895.
RTY 17.28x, support 17x 1127, resist 18x 1193.

I have maintained that smart $ would probably not be paying more than 18x earnings for SPX and last week's jump above was a total surprise. This week's move back under 18x means I expect 2115 area to be resistance from here. This means it may take more time to reach major resistance at the YR1 level, and increases the chance that the recent high on AprR1 was a more important top.

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as reported by Yardeni is fading from the zero line instead of jumping above. I have previously made the case (and continue to believe) that this index moving into positive territory would help USA main stock indexes break out to new highs. 

Earth day

When I post about oil, RSX, EWZ, XLE, etc, I am just thinking like a trader and what sectors are moving along with this system of technical analysis. But thinking more like a global citizen there should be a lot more divestment pressure out of the oil industry. There won't be any quarterly profits to report if the earth cannot sustain life anymore!

There are some ways to do this so today wanted to do pivot analysis on a few of them.

CRBN tracks the MSCI low carbon index. Because this launched in 2014, yearly pivots for 2016 are valid (ie, a full year of price history for 2015). This looks about like NYA; stronger than IWM but just the first week above its YP here. 

And here's the daily with all pivots. So the strongest it has been the last 3 days, but this is a pretty bad entry with the RSI again overbought. Better risk-reward setup was on 4/8 as it held above the monthly pivot. 

SPYX is a great idea and wish I saw it more reported in the media. It is SPY minus the energy sector. Now you could take signals on SPY and hope for the best, but really we should use pivots on this vehicle directly. With a start in late 2015, however, yearly and 1HP are not valid leaving only monthly pivots. But the new Q2P is valid and when we reach July the 2HP will be valid too. In this chart I have removed the YP & HP, but showing the QP. Keep in mind the Q1P was not valid due to incomplete Q4 pricing. 

TAN is a solar ETF that moves well on pivots. You might like the idea of solar but if you didn't manage this as a position you may have lost quite a lot of money. The weekly chart of 2013-16 action doesn't even show the massive drops in 2008 and again in 2011 that have never recovered. This looks like a long term speculative long possibility right now holding YS1 and now clearing 1HS1. Although the larger positions should be above pivots and we don't have that here. 

Daily chart with all pivots shows heading into Q2P. So I would use that if making a decision. RSI is getting up there so at this point better to see the Q2P act as support. Even if you pay a slightly higher price, you will avoid the headache of immediate losing position. 

Of course you could also use pivots on charts of individual solar companies too. 

And my favorite, TSLA. I really nailed this one when working at a hedge fund in 2013 and thought it was going to 300 when it was 50. This stock moves like their cars, just explosive moves up. But since that rejection of YR1 / 2HR1 combo in mid 2014 it has been stuck in range. "3 drives to a top" as they say, with very classic RSI divergence too. 

What a monster move off the low. Picking off lows always looks easier in hindsight but really if you wanted to play this on the long side the best would have been 3/2-3 area as it held YS1, and was above its monthly pivot for the first time this year. Waiting until 4/5 quite late per RSI.

That said it could be in long term add mode here above the YP and 1HP. The rejection of Q2R1 is some concern, but as an investment just above both long term pivots is decent risk-reward. It is possible that the move from 2014 high to recent low completed a major correction. This is based on weekly RSI at the low, monthly chart Fibs and MAs, and then if you follow my E-wave stuff then think ABC down too. All this means next move could be new highs, and for positioning keep it simple, hold above the YP. 

Sentiment

Check the tag for prior versions. As I continue in a scaled down manner, I won't be able to do the full sentiment analysis each week. But I will try to post when there is a sentiment extreme. Today I wish to point to two sentiment readings that are pushing towards extremes.

Sum
Daily and weekly put-call the lowest in nearly 2 years; this is quite optimistic! AAII managers top 16% percentile exposure on data from mid 2006, and this is more of an extreme considering most of these readings during seasonally strong November - February period. In other words, a pretty high reading for April.

I still prefer higher highs on the rally for a big top, as I'd rather see a tag of Q2R1, 1HR1 and YR1 levels, but the easy money from February - when we saw sentiment extremes on the other low side - has been made. With market participants so bullish, the market is more susceptible to a larger pullback or range bound digestion period. 

* * *

Below is a daily put-call chart with a 10MA in blue. This reached a very low level on 4/20/2016, in fact lower than any point since July 2014. 

Here's the same chart including 2012-13, with just a few other dips below this level.

On a weekly basis the level is not quite as glaring, but still, near low areas for about the last 2 years!

Also, the AAII managers reported a jump to 82 exposure which is top 16% percentile of all readings from mid 2006. Also consider that a vast majority of these higher readings are during seasonally strong months of November, December. January and February. So, getting up there.

Elliott wave doodles

I am not really an Elliott wave person but I have dabbled. Pivots are far superior because they are completely objective and simple - either the price is above or below. There are no alternative counts etc. But still like other market tools the Elliott wave can shed light on the phase of the market. 

For example, if the big picture idea in the linked post is correct, then we are entering W5 euphoria phase for the last big up move of the bull market. This means any yearly resistance levels or YP breaks especially in the preferred timing high window 2017-18 would could be significant stock exits.

But this post is about the medium term. It strikes me we are seeing the classic pattern play out from the February low, but in this post I wish to highlight two interpretations and give my reasons for the preferred version. 

A simple W1 up, W2 pullback, W3 up, W4 zigzag and W5 up is below. 

If this is correct we'd expect some price and ideally time relationships between W1 and W5. Starting with price like this, which shows W5 = 61% of W1 at 211.37. This is about where SPX and ES AprR1s are too. 

Then we can add time. Right now current W5 already exceeded 138% of W1 and near 161% which will be 4/21 at 11:30 2 hour bar. You could say ideal E-wave move based on this idea would be a tag of W1 = 61% at 211.37 at 161% in time at 4/21 11:30. 

But after all this I am going to say this is not my preferred count. Here is why. I think probably we are still seeing a sub-divided W3. So instead of looking for the 5 count W1 up, W2 down, W3 up, W4 down, W5 up to complete, followed by ABC down; we really should be trying to spot this:

W1 up impulsive
W2 correction measurable on pivots and or Fib relationships
W3 that subdivides w1 of W3 up, w2 of W3 pullback, w3 of W3 larger steady rally, w4 of W3 pullback, w5 of W3 up
W4 that ideally matches W2 in price, although frequently more drawn out in time
W5 up to complete, with some relationship to W1

If this idea is correct, w5 of W3 will ideally have relationship with w1 of W3, and it so happens we are bang on 100% here at 210.50. SPX AprR1 and ES AprR1 are very close. 

This would imply we are in ending stages of W3 here, followed by a larger drop, and then a W5 move for a more significant top. This would match pivots too - a trading top on the monthly resistance, and after a pullback, a move up to the more important quarterly, half-year and yearly resistance levels. 

Safe havens

Review
Not purely but mostly bearish for the safe havens last week. "Bearish safe haven scenario would be TLT rejection from AprR1, GLD rejection of AprP and YR1 again, VIX below AprP with look of rejection." TLT pulled back from AprR1 then recovered, GLD exceeded AprP then dropped back under again, and VIX was the clearest with move below AprP with look of rejection.

Sum
TLT still quite strong above all pivots! Pullback from AprR1 and immediate comeback. GLD continues to shuffle around YR1 without being able to launch, but quickly coming back after drops from the level as well. VIX looks very bullish for stocks, and ideally we see a VIX level tag along with stock indexes at resistance for a major top. 

Scenarios
USA indexes more likely to move as a group bullish / bearish. So a rough sort of idea.
Bullish safe havens: TLT above AprR1, GLD back above YR1, VIX up / XIV down but would take a large move for the latter two to break AprPs.

Bearish safe havens: TLT AprR1 rejection, GLD YR1 rejection, VIX continuing lower and XIV up.
 

TLT
TLT W between major support at 1HR1 and resistance at 1HR2 / YR1 combo. TLT D all above its AprP, some resistance at the AprR1 but not much damage and back to the level on Friday. Really TLT is holding up quite well despite strength in USA stocks, a fairly odd situation. 

GLD
GLD W just cannot really get moving up from its YR1 level. The close was just under but really too close to call that rejection. GLD D shows another 1 day rejection from YR1 that immediately came back; this has happened several times this year. 

VIX
Note YR3 at 2015 VIX high and the YP pokes above and no closes above on the weekly chart. VIX got that correct. But it will be mathematically impossible to see long term support for a VIX low, which makes quarterly and monthly support important to watch. VIX showed caution 4/7-11 but another move down below AprP confirmed rally in stocks.  

XIV
Like Russell still under long term levels. Near test of Q2P and then AprP on recent pullback low. 

USA main indexes

Review
Very quick. Last week's bullish scenario: "AprPs on RTY / IWM and NYA hold as the low, COMPQ holds its YP, up from there." 

And that's just about what happened, the RTY / IWM & NYA AprPs were the key pullback lows. COMPQ broke its YP fractionally and recovered, and NQ futs held near exact. 

Sum
Last week: 2 strong, 1 strong but testing; 1 mixed, 1 TBD-
This week: 4 strong, 1 mixed. 
The difference is tech set tested and held YPs, and NYA jumped above its YP for the first time this year. Bullish developments on 2 major indexes does not happen every week. 

Scenarios
Bullish: NYA holds YP 10302, COMP clears 1HR1 6311 (the only pivot resistance nearby on any of these indexes, see Dow set for details).
Bearish: COMP 1HR1 rejection, NYA break of YP.

Chop is the worst of the method but it can happen. A move above followed by a move back below and a rejection can be as bearish as a breakdown that recovers like several indexes on the 1/20 and 2/11 lows. But until that happens, markets are quite bullish here with a YP test and hold last week in the tech set and a YP clear from NYA. This a big deal and view is more bullish from here. Whatever other concerns may be (valuation, RSI, seasonality, etc), we should see more indexes at pivot resistance OR a fade of NYA back under its YP to change our minds.

SPX / SPY / ES
These continue in quite healthy manner above all pivots. After recovering the FebP on all vehicles 2/24-25 there have been very few days with bearish conclusions. April completely above its pivot so far, and we should see pivot resistance for any significant top.

NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
COMPQ and NQ both successfully tested and held YPs last week which is bullish, as the others in this tech set are comfortably above YPs too. The low was within 2 NQ points of the level with a crystal clear hold. It is a bit of extra work to check the cash indexes, ETFs and futures but these are the kinds of days that show why I do this. If you looked at COMPQ alone you might have gotten more bearish on the 1 day slight break.  

INDU / COMP / DIA / YM
I've recently started including the COMP in this group too and pivots look crystal clear. This index is the only one showing any concern on the rally because it has already reached major resistance 1HR1, and small blue bars with RSI divergence invite selling. Watch that level this coming week, 6311. Otherwise INDU / DIA / YM look great and should reach monthly resistance at least. 

RTY / IWM / TF
The only main index below YPs, but quite healthy gains since holding YS2 on the low. Low of month on AprP exact on both RTY and IWM. If IWM can go positive on the year (red line) then that will bring even more buying. 

NYA / VTI
NYA jumped above its YP for the first time all year - very bullish, but needs to maintain. So 10302 needs to hold from here for stronger bull case. Low on NYA AprP near exact, dip below and no close below on 4/7. VTI similar but different broad ETF already stronger above all pivots. 

Timing model

This may be hocus-pocus but check the tag and you'll see perhaps not entirely that. 

Model A 3/1-11 directional move
Model B 3/8 turn
Resulted in 3/1-11 overall up for stock indexes with 3/8 pullback low; 3/11 remains key pullback low in TLT

Model A 3/18-22 high, alerted in post 3/15
Resulted in 3/21-22 stock index close & price highs

Model A 3/31
Model B 4/1, first posted 3/7 (yup check the tag)
Result 4/1 stock index high

Model A&B 4/8 turn (first posted 3/7 per Model B 4/9 Saturday) 
Result 4/7 low -1 from 4/8 date or -2 if you are picky and counting from Saturday

Now we are into choppy period with several dates on both models which doesn't always happen.

Model A 4/15-18
Model B 4/22
Model A 4/28
Model B 4/29 combine for 4/28-29 turn area

OK so I know this sounds like the impossible that a few Nobel Laureates have won prizes disproving but again I'll say the dates for April were posted in early March and so far we have bang on trading high and pullback low -1 trading day. So let's see what happens with the others for the month, and before May starts I'll post those for the entire month in advance too. Next month won't have turn dates every week either.