When I post about oil, RSX, EWZ, XLE, etc, I am just thinking like a trader and what sectors are moving along with this system of technical analysis. But thinking more like a global citizen there should be a lot more divestment pressure out of the oil industry. There won't be any quarterly profits to report if the earth cannot sustain life anymore!
There are some ways to do this so today wanted to do pivot analysis on a few of them.
CRBN tracks the MSCI low carbon index. Because this launched in 2014, yearly pivots for 2016 are valid (ie, a full year of price history for 2015). This looks about like NYA; stronger than IWM but just the first week above its YP here.
And here's the daily with all pivots. So the strongest it has been the last 3 days, but this is a pretty bad entry with the RSI again overbought. Better risk-reward setup was on 4/8 as it held above the monthly pivot.
SPYX is a great idea and wish I saw it more reported in the media. It is SPY minus the energy sector. Now you could take signals on SPY and hope for the best, but really we should use pivots on this vehicle directly. With a start in late 2015, however, yearly and 1HP are not valid leaving only monthly pivots. But the new Q2P is valid and when we reach July the 2HP will be valid too. In this chart I have removed the YP & HP, but showing the QP. Keep in mind the Q1P was not valid due to incomplete Q4 pricing.
TAN is a solar ETF that moves well on pivots. You might like the idea of solar but if you didn't manage this as a position you may have lost quite a lot of money. The weekly chart of 2013-16 action doesn't even show the massive drops in 2008 and again in 2011 that have never recovered. This looks like a long term speculative long possibility right now holding YS1 and now clearing 1HS1. Although the larger positions should be above pivots and we don't have that here.
Daily chart with all pivots shows heading into Q2P. So I would use that if making a decision. RSI is getting up there so at this point better to see the Q2P act as support. Even if you pay a slightly higher price, you will avoid the headache of immediate losing position.
Of course you could also use pivots on charts of individual solar companies too.
And my favorite, TSLA. I really nailed this one when working at a hedge fund in 2013 and thought it was going to 300 when it was 50. This stock moves like their cars, just explosive moves up. But since that rejection of YR1 / 2HR1 combo in mid 2014 it has been stuck in range. "3 drives to a top" as they say, with very classic RSI divergence too.
What a monster move off the low. Picking off lows always looks easier in hindsight but really if you wanted to play this on the long side the best would have been 3/2-3 area as it held YS1, and was above its monthly pivot for the first time this year. Waiting until 4/5 quite late per RSI.
That said it could be in long term add mode here above the YP and 1HP. The rejection of Q2R1 is some concern, but as an investment just above both long term pivots is decent risk-reward. It is possible that the move from 2014 high to recent low completed a major correction. This is based on weekly RSI at the low, monthly chart Fibs and MAs, and then if you follow my E-wave stuff then think ABC down too. All this means next move could be new highs, and for positioning keep it simple, hold above the YP.
