Trade idea to watch

April 6, 2016 Jonathan Ravel

Mostly the ideas in the weekly strategy sum are enough to keep you busy. This is going along with the move in oil today possibly back above its Q2P.

TPP picked off the key low in oil and didn't start saying think about locking in some gains until the second week of March (search on tags). The initial plan was to watch reaction on the Q1P either current or CL1 contract, that the Q1P on CL1 was 2 day weak clear and rejection. That was the trigger to take most gains. But I also thought oil would be good to hold a runner unit above its Q2P, but I was thinking on its current contract. Well that didn't work as it broke down without any bounce. So this was a cut and reverse short. Although I did mention CL1 Q2P had to break for larger position and that held. So really CL1 is giving the best signals, and maybe I should start weighting that as indicator from here.

I didn't like the short setup on the daily chart (CL K) and kept to 1 unit (my base = 20 with 5 or so margin units 125% exposure). Sure enough, oil (CL K) may recover its Q2P again today as the CL1 Q2P held on the low yesterday. I already suggested to watch this for a cut and reverse long. And again to repeat, low was on CL1 Q2P! I just needed to factor this in more in the decision making process. Right idea, wrong vehicle with the CL K contract.

Today I am also watching XLE which will move with oil. RSX and EWZ already had huge moves and will be subject to more profit taking. XLE is holding positive on the year and may clear its AprP. If this happens on daily close good r/r buy setup. Although some of my filters and signs to not take or take small would be a weak up bar with low volume above the level. Of course, a rejection of the AprP and negative on the year would suggest drop to Q2P, but I am not so keen on shorting oil this year. It has been down for 1.5 years, c'mon, damage should be mostly done.

Quarterly and Monthly charts II

March 29, 2016 Jonathan Ravel

Nearing the quarter close it is an especially good time to remind ourselves of the larger moves and trends by checking quarterly and monthly charts. I covered the USA mains here, included these charts for oil in today's post, and here are some other USA ETFs I like to watch.

Sum
IBB Q chart 2 bars with RSI 90 - an incredible parabolic move that had to have a dramatic end. This sector probably in a very long consolidation period, but M chart suggests bounce.
SOXX looks good especially above the M 20MA; another reason to hold longs.
XLF congested (between rising and falling MAs on both charts) but still relatively weaker index on many levels; another reason to keep on short candidate list.
XLE bounced off M 200MA but 10MA still pushing down and looks to me like it could drop back down to form some higher low.

IBB Q chart here. This had an amazing run and led the rally for years. 2 quarterly closes with RSI above 90! That is a parabolic move and anyone holding without any profit protection plan at that point was just delusional. A very long consolidation is due.

This might be setting up for a bounce. Small red bar on the lower BB and just above a nicely rising 50MA. But I don't think the quarterly chart will zoom back up to highs anytime soon.

SOXX Q chart looks pretty good with higher close (at current level) and RSI room to go up.

SOXX M above the 20MA which is another reason to be holding the long positions.

XLF Q held 20MA but below flat or slightly falling 50MA. Glaring lower high compared to 2007 of course.

XLF M held rising 50MA but stuck under 10, 20, and 200MAs.

XLE Q chart held the lower BB but under a rising 50MA.

And there is a bounce from a M 200MA with classic RSI and BB divergence too. But 10MA still pushing down and this may have to form some higher low.

Big levels

January 23, 2016 Jonathan Ravel

The amount of indexes or ETFs that turned from long term levels - by this I mean yearly or half-year pivots - is rather amazing. These weeks are rare. The odds favor more on the bounce, but how far it gets we shall see - and use the shorter term pivots, especially the FebPs which will be in play in about a week - to gauge the strength. Of course all the levels below that broke and recovered by the weekly close will have to hold.

All charts weekly with year and half-year levels only (no quarterly or monthly). Listing comments first, then the charts. If you get confused to which is which, look for the light grey watermark of sorts identifying the index / ETF.

This post has gotten quite long, and I still didn't cover two categories - currencies and commodities namely, oil. I will do another post on that soon, but check the recent blog post on oil that pointed to the key level YS1 a day before the low!

USA mains stock indexes & ETFs
SPX / SPY / ES - all broke YS1s & 1HS1s, but recovered on close (hard to see 1HS1 on chart b/c so close to YS1)

NDX / QQQ / NQ - low on NDX near exact, QQQ disparate structure ie not on YS1, NQ more like ES

INDU / DIA - lows on YS1 & 1HS1 combo

RTY / IWM held YS2 / 1HS2 combo area. (Note: these two charts added on 1/27.)

NYA - recovered YS1, but still a fraction under 1HS1

USA additional stock indexes & ETFs
IBB - weaker bounce off YS1

SOXX - better move up from 1HS1. The Pivotal Perspective prefers SOXX over IBB here.

XLE - also YS1 low and recovery of 1HS1

XLF - I don't know what to make of pivots this year due to massive 8/24 spike, so not showing here

Safe havens & risk indicators
TYX - just slightly below its YP; recovery would put in back in congestion zone above YP but below 1HP; below YP remains bearish yield and bullish bonds.

TNX - rebounded from 1HS1

TLT - high on 1HR1 near exact

ZB - high on YR1 / 1HR1 combo, but could be pause and not rejection.

ZN - also high on YR1 / 1HR1 combo, but also perhaps pause and not rejection.

HYG - low on 1HS1

VIX - poked above, but did not close above, the YP for the last 2 weeks. decent reversal from the YP although some may point to closing below the low of last week as confirmation, which hasn't happened yet.