These were quite obviously weaker compared to the USA this year. This isn't just a hindsight point, as I have been saying it all March.

NKY in fact did break YS1 fractionally on 3/31 before the big plunge the next day. But unless you are an institution it is unlikely that you are trading NKY directly, unless you swing / position trade via futures. Anyway, this idea worked whether you shorted the break on 3/31 close or even if you entered EWJ short on 4/1 below all pivots, it is still a nice move today and helping limit the damage on the drop.

DAX also breaking under all pivots today, although EWG is just on its Q2P now. Tough call. DAX 'should be' the underlying but EWG is the vehicle with currency factored in.

If the last portfolio moves were 2 units short EWJ, 2 long TLT both 4/1 1-2 oil short 4/4, then portfolio is mostly all in with the other DIA, SOXX, remaining GLD/GDX, small EEM, possibly small QQQ longs. This is a case for margin too, allowing for 20 units (roughly how I am imagining things) with margin chance up to 25 for hedging or max long if everything was bullish (which it isn't). Point is you can consider DAX / EWG as short but Japan beat it to punch. If EWG breaks under its Q2P then there is really no debate, it can be added as a short.

NKY W looks pretty bad with failure of YS1 level. Opens door to re-test of lows or YS2.

Although NKY also fractionally broke YS1 twice in March, the headache free setup was shorting when it was also below the new Q2P and AprP.

Here's is EWJ, OK not perfect entry right at highs but worst case should be scratch trade at this point. Entry 4/1 or even 4/2 plenty of time below all pivots. Ideal move down to Q2S1 / 1HS2 near the lows.

DAX also relatively weak bounce compared to USA indexes.

Note, does not include 4/5 data; broke under all pivots today.

Here is EWG trying to hold the Q2P. I think if already in the recent shorts might as well wait for clear move below the pivot.

The amount of indexes or ETFs that turned from long term levels - by this I mean yearly or half-year pivots - is rather amazing. These weeks are rare. The odds favor more on the bounce, but how far it gets we shall see - and use the shorter term pivots, especially the FebPs which will be in play in about a week - to gauge the strength. Of course all the levels below that broke and recovered by the weekly close will have to hold.

All charts weekly with year and half-year levels only (no quarterly or monthly). Listing comments first, then the charts. If you get confused to which is which, look for the light grey watermark of sorts identifying the index / ETF.

This post has gotten quite long, and I still didn't cover two categories - currencies and commodities namely, oil. I will do another post on that soon, but check the recent blog post on oil that pointed to the key level YS1 a day before the low!

USA mains stock indexes & ETFs
SPX / SPY / ES - all broke YS1s & 1HS1s, but recovered on close (hard to see 1HS1 on chart b/c so close to YS1)

NDX / QQQ / NQ - low on NDX near exact, QQQ disparate structure ie not on YS1, NQ more like ES

INDU / DIA - lows on YS1 & 1HS1 combo

RTY / IWM held YS2 / 1HS2 combo area. (Note: these two charts added on 1/27.)

NYA - recovered YS1, but still a fraction under 1HS1

USA additional stock indexes & ETFs
IBB - weaker bounce off YS1

SOXX - better move up from 1HS1. The Pivotal Perspective prefers SOXX over IBB here.

XLE - also YS1 low and recovery of 1HS1

XLF - I don't know what to make of pivots this year due to massive 8/24 spike, so not showing here

Safe havens & risk indicators
TYX - just slightly below its YP; recovery would put in back in congestion zone above YP but below 1HP; below YP remains bearish yield and bullish bonds.

TNX - rebounded from 1HS1

TLT - high on 1HR1 near exact

ZB - high on YR1 / 1HR1 combo, but could be pause and not rejection.

ZN - also high on YR1 / 1HR1 combo, but also perhaps pause and not rejection.

HYG - low on 1HS1

VIX - poked above, but did not close above, the YP for the last 2 weeks. decent reversal from the YP although some may point to closing below the low of last week as confirmation, which hasn't happened yet.