Last week: "VIX and variations (XIV inverse ETF, and futures) of particular interest to me as these *usually* work quite well as confirming indicators on buys and trouble alerts. VIX actually slow to get in gear on drop, but confirmed trouble on 10/27 above its Q4P. Like most USA mains this is the 2nd time above the pivot this quarter. As far as I am concerned, VIX showing trouble means reduce long exposure by getting out of longs or hedging."
Not bad eh?
Sum
Given election wildcard and VIX connection to options, I suspect VIX will push up higher on Monday. This may even force stocks lower due to correlated strategies. Then if you are planning on buying calls as a way to play an H win and relief rally, the VIX collapse will mean a lot less gains. The ETFs are likely to have a massive gap on 11/9. The best way to play this is the futures market.
For positioning, while VIX is above 2HP that means caution until we see back down OR a move up to YP, but not above, 27.46. XIV holding YP would be better for bulls, but needs to recover Q4P.
TLT does not look attractive here. GLD was the better buy as it held 2HP exact on the low (TLT broke) and recovered a rising D200 late October (TLT below D200MA).
TLT
Weekly chart has been below 2HP - some long term weakness - for 4 weeks. Any rally will have to recover that level and then face YR1 again, as well as falling moving averages. The recent 11/1 low not on a pivot which is rare for TLT. Basically though RSI near OS the third time and stock market in trouble, this has not given us a decent buy since 9/15-21, and even that wasn't great with only a 10MA and no rising slope. Since 9/30-10/3 one could have been properly short with rejection of both Q4P and OctP and MAs with falling slope. How long to hold positions is always harder than entries, as this rally could go back to 2HP and fail.
GLD
Unlike TLT, GLD held 2HP exact on the low. While there was some shuffle around the D200MA, the rising slope won out with clear lifts above 10/28 and 10/31.
GDX
High on YR3 exact, low on 2HP. Not bad. Like GLD, below Q4P but above NovP and both long term pivots.
VIX
Yikes! That weekly bar is really the worst since 12/7/2015, because the other jumps stopped at long term pivots. Before that, the 8/17/2015 bar above both 2HP and YP. Now of course that turned into a buy afterward, but you were scramming from the market when VIX showed signs of trouble on 8/20-21 you but you saved yourself a lot of hassle by waiting to fully commit to stocks until VIX had a weekly bar below its YP (ie the first week of October). VIX really needs to drop back under 20.07 to confirm a stock buy, or go higher to the YP at 27.46 to take another stab.
11/2 was a small up bar below the 2HP, and stock indexes had just held support. That looked like a place to try some longs. Didn't work, out.
XIV
Too bad weekly chart did not reach target area, although daily new high of year just on 10/24 just below NovR1. XIV testing YP - still above - but below Q4P and 2HR1 combo.