Prior week: "SPX 1 day Q4P recovery then another move below and rejection; Tech less strong with slight break of OctP on 3 of 5 variations; INDU below Q4P and OctP; RUT also break of Q4P; NYA/VTI below Q4P as well."
Last week: SPX set broke Q4S1s, Tech set broke Q4Ps, INDU set broke NovS1s but still well above Q4S1, RUT broke YP (!); NYA also 1 day below YP and VTI below Q4S1.
Sum
That is quite a bearish week but don't say I didn't warn you. 2 of 5 USA mains are below YPs! That is serious, but with RSIs where they are a recovery certainly possible. The big levels are what I just listed above, with the emphasis on pivots (not support levels). Meaning if the bounce is for real, then Tech set jumps above its Q4P, RUT set massive rally above its YP, and NYA decently back above YP as well. Until then, caution warranted.
Charts
Cash index charts with long term pivots only
ETF chart with long & medium term pivots
Futures continuous "1" contract charts with pivots and MAs only for clarity of trend
Futures current "Z" contract charts with the works (some long term pivots turned off due to lack of data)
SPX / SPY / ES1 / ESZ
That YR1 looking quite definitive now (I added SPY weekly chart for clarity of this move). But this is not a hindsight call as when markets were near the level and below I had several comments showing concern. But the weekly charts also show the SPX is a quite a ways from changing long term status. Daily charts show the Q4P rejection 10/27 which coincided with VIX above Q4P, hence our "trouble alert." From there straight down and no bounce at Q4S1 which is fairly rare. The futures level is only 5 points higher than Friday's close so a recovery is still possible. But from here we have NovS2, then a long way down to NovS3 and Q4S2.
NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ1 / NQZ
NDX did not reach long term target areas (although futures did on NQ1 YR1, and NQZ on 2HR2). What surprised me was very weak bounce attempt at the Q4P. On any real bounce this level will have to recover.
INDU / COMP / DIA / YM1 / YMZ
INDU high within 100 points of YR1, and COMP 2 week slight overshoot then 6 weekly highs bang on the level. DIA below Q4P since 10/11, and below monthly pivot since 9/9 with exception of 1 day. DIA looks like we need to see Q4S1, although recovery of that NovS1 would look better.
RUT / IWM / RJ1 / RJZ
Thing of beauty. RUT/IWM below YP is serious. Then 2nd break of Q4P on IWM was a much better short hedge than DIA. Per monthly and quarterly charts I should have gotten that, as IWM did not make a new high above 2015 highs.
NYA / VTI (these are differently constructed but both very broad indexes, and pivots work on both)
The NYA could be subject of an entire blog post because pivots on this have done a great job. After topping out 9/6-8 there is little positive and several negatives. 9/22-23 was Q3R1 high test and rejection; 9/28-10/3 was monthly pivot rejection; 10/4 was the first break of Q4P; 10/5-10 was OctP clear resistance; and from there 3rd break of Q4P on 10/11 and continued as near resistance. Now 1 day below the YP.
VTI similarly amazing with low of year on YS1 and high of year on YR1. Very simple. Currently testing NovS2, and Q4S1 will have to recover on any bounce.