What have been the best entries this year?
TLT, 1/5, haha. Actually The Pivotal Perspective started talking about that on 1/6.
GLD 1/14, but at least there were very bullish posts from later January.
Stocks indexes, 2/11. Caught that near enough on 2/12, but only as a speculative buy and didn't shift more until recovery of at least 1 pivot later in February.
Stock indexes 6/27-7/6 (leaving aside March-May for the sake of brevity)
OK, just because we have a level doesn't necessarily mean an entry. Often the best entries are:
Pivot level (hold or change of status)
MA (10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 400, or some combination) with some slope on your side
MACD or RSI contributing
If we really wanted to be thorough, we could want some other technical event on weekly, monthly or quarterly charts as well but I will save this for another day. Also keep in mind my basic outlook - definitive days to take action are when multiple indexes are saying the same thing, like 10/28 "trouble alert" combination of USA main index Q4P pivots and VIX. Lastly, if you are trying to spend most of your capital picking off lows to buy and highs to short - pivots are probably the best way to try but you will go broke or crazy or both. Basically we want to be in the best trends. We have better chances of catching those with the 3 entry criteria. So let's return to the list above with chart examples.
TLT buy chances 1/6-12. This had:
Pivot recovery above 1HP, Q1P and JanP from 1/6 on with a well defined risk cluster.
Above 400MA, 200MA, 100MA, 50MA, 20MA, 10MA - all on the same day 1/6! There was 1 close just below 200MA on 1/11 but small red bar not threatening and still above 100MA and 20MA. Some of these had positive slope and some negative.
MACD (blue line) crossed positive 1/7. These don't always work and sometimes sideways chop, but often entries better with a recent move to positive (or negative for shorts).
1/22+ add had:
Test and clear hold of YP
Nice rising 10MA
RSI not yet overbought
Now let's check GLD. 1/25 had:
2nd clear move above 1HP, Q1P and already had held JanP on the low
lift above rising 10MA, rising 20MA, slight clear of 100MA on 1/25 and definitive move 1/26
MACD already positive, RSI not overbought
(Note that the first move above the pivot cluster earlier in January was bang into a falling 100MA and failed; often second move will be definitive.)
2/3+ add had:
Slight move above YP but not definitive; jump above D200 though
2/4-5 massive jump above YP
SPY in February:
Wait a second - what was there? On pivot only chart, not much except RSI divergence. Keep in mind this chart shows pivots only, not support or resistance levels. So that is why I recommended this as "speculative" setup as multiple indexes held / recovered YS1s with a low test and sentiment extreme.
6/28 had:
Slight break and huge massive recovery of YP
Recovery of rising D200MA
RSI recently near extreme
7/5-6 had:
Test and hold of Q4P / JulP combo
Test and hold of 10MA, 20MA, rising 50MA
MACD turn to positive (blue line) 7/1 recent enough and about same price
With that in mind what is giving us the best entry here?
SPY has an RSI extreme and D200 which may hold, but no pure pivots (Q4S1 could work though, if recovery).
QQQ also RSI extreme, would have to recover Q4P and D100 for better setup; until then, no buy.
DIA does not have pivot, D200 is lower and RSI not yet extreme - no buy.
IWM also RSI extreme, D200 is just below with rising slope, but needs to recover YP.
VTI is like SPY here, near Q4S1 but not on pivot. RSI extreme and rising D200; NYA which is more a confirming index than a trading vehicle needs to recover YP and better if back above D200 as well.
All these charts are in the USA main index section so will not repost here. Just open in a new tab and check out the ETF charts in each index category.
USA sector leader SOXX/SMH both similar in structure, just a bit under NovP and falling 50MA. Better buy if test of Q4P & D100 combo, but you certainly could be holding if bought in July or March when first mentioned on this site.
World leader EWZ also just a bit under NovP, holding rising D50. If higher needs to clear NovP. Though I mentioned area that rally likely stops last week, this also could be a long term hold above Q4P if you got in early.
XLF also a current leader, just a shade under NovP and entirely above Q4P this quarter. Not many assets in that category at this point. Needs to lift back above NovP and 50MA 20MA combo which would like turn MACD back positive; or drop lower near Q4P.
IYF Financial ETF also decent so far with just a fractional move below Q4P, doing much better than other leaders like QQQ, EEM and FXI all of which had bigger moves under Q4P. Financials may take a hit if rates move the other way but for now holding up quite well.
In general I don't emphasize shorting too much and try to focus on buying what is going up. But if you want to play the game of picking off highs, then the best chances are RSI extremes on multiple timeframes and pivot resistance (like TLT 7/8 or IWM 9/7 or 9/22-23), or when the trend rolls over with:
Clear pivot rejections (at least quarterly), not just monthly
MAs with falling slope
MACD turning negative
Which we basically had on all the USA mains, just the days varied per index and indicator above.