Once again things could have been worse. If you are long small caps and tech you are probably feeling pretty good the last few days. International indexes melting down, DIA cracking, and what looks like a bad rally rallies to a new high (in IWM at least).
SPY could have rejected from HR1, but didn't; well below the level, but not really rejection
QQQ held above HR2 as support, and QR1 & JunR1 as well
DIA could have broken Q2P, but didn't; and when you consider cash index and futures so far that QP is holding
IWM new price and close high!*
NYA QP rejection which shows trouble internationally, but this isn't new (I have been pointing out all the global indexes below QP for months now) and anyway, so far D200MA hold
So all this is rather bullish. But:
VIX is back above YP, some warning
VXX slightly above JunS1, but this isn't a huge level
TLT again above MP
GLD holding near YP test
So the safe havens are picking up a bit. The next stage in typical topping process would be increase in new lows as new highs fall off. We have the latter but not much of the former. We already have sentiment extremes. There are enough major levels in play here. All we need is a move that drops and does not come back.
* I maintain decent trading top anytime now from IWM HR2 to IWM YR2. Given international troubles, everyone is piling into the Russell.
SPY, DJI (cash), IWM below.