6/18/2018

Once again the daily bar could have been far worse, but wasn't. Usually this is bullish.

SPX rallied back to HR1 - key level to watch
IWM testing HR2 - another key level and reaching target zone where I emphatically emphasized the likelihood of reversal in the latest Total market view
NYA fell under QP but doesn't have the "look of rejection"

VIX traded above the YP but without the "look of support"

In sum while I still believe we are likely to soon see a decent trading top based on IWM YR2 HR2 area, there was just not enough today to have a major adjustment in positioning. 

TLT held MP FWIW, so that remains a counter-trend possibility / institutional rebalancing trade idea. 

SMH short from last week was the right idea, though QQQ was already cut and XBI continues to hold above the YR1. Probably easier to just stick with shorting weakness - there have been several key indexes below QPs and continue to go lower - XLF, EFA, EWG, EWJ, SHComp, EEM, INDA, EWZ, RSX. 

SPY, IWM and VIX below. 

18 1 SPY D.png
18 2 IWM D.png
18 3 VIX D.png