6/13/2018

We have seen a run-up in front of FOMC and sell-off after plenty of times. Was this a key turn?

According to VIX, IWM, NYA and ES (U) contract, maybe. But not according to VXX, SPY, QQQ, or DIA.

Just because the post FOMC move often reverses the next day, I'm willing to take the afternoon sell-off with a grain of salt and see what happens the next day. Given the strength fo the trend, we need more confirming indicators of trouble - such as TLT and/or GLD above MPs. 

That said, it looks like upside on IWM will be limited as there is serious resistance ahead - JunR1, HR2, YR2, daily BB, weekly BB, monthly BB, and it is already well outside Q BB. This is happening as most timeframes are overbought on RSI as well. 

SPY, IWM and VIX below.

13 3 IWM D.png