I think we can start running the TPP top checklist now... :)
Although I am bullish for 2017 since risk assets will likely open above yearly pivots, and safe havens below yearly pivots - both pointing to YR1s and YS1s respectively - market has reached a point here a trading turn is possible. This one is much better than the Thanksgiving high because it is on much more frothy sentiment.
Basics of top checklist are:
1) Multiple USA mains on pivot resistance, then rejection? Yes to part a, not yet to part b.
2) VIX and XIV confirmation? VIX sounding some alarm, XIV still OK.
3) Other technicals like RSI overbought and/or divergence, or higher timeframe issues? RSI overbought but sign of strength to be above 70 on most USA main indexes; some are running into weekly overbought conditions. I think other technicals are mixed as there are many signs of strength, and it possible that real high we will see more divergence.
4) High tested with at least one lower high? Not really - only tech set weaker.
5) Safe havens showing concern? No.
6) Breadth or volume divergence? No.
7) Sentiment extremes reached? Much more so 12/8 than previous minor high of 11/25.
8) Valuation concerns? Average of last 20 weeks of 17.5 SPX forward P/E is 2241. 18x would be up to 2305. So yes I would say valuation resistance here.
9) Timing? A few dates in December. 12/1-2 clear pullback low. Next is 12/7-8 but +1 would be acceptable.
So there are enough Yes's to keep an eye out. More on sentiment shortly.
Levels in play (all charts below)
SPY DecR1
DIA DecR1 & Q4R3 just above
IWM YR2 (!)
VTI Q4R2
XIV YR1 still holding as support; VIX reversal bars but well under all pivots.