Wow. Today was an amazing move after an already amazing move. Maybe it is idea of ECB QE, maybe tax cuts, whatever, but I think the real answer is in the NDX 2000 top. There has been quite a shuffle around this area since August. We have seen selling from 4816 four separate times. But again the market has come back with strength above the level. This is very bullish.
I am mostly happy with recommendations 11/9+. I had already said accumulate financials and that they were the best looking asset class in Q4 *before* the election! I noted DIA strength on 11/8, IWM strength on 11/11, SPY strength on 11/15. Safe havens TLT and GLD crumbled 11/10-11, setting the stage for max long positions in USA indexes which were mostly above all pivots.
But I said take off leverage longs 11/30, and even hedged somewhat on weaker indexes - these moves cost a bit. Everything is easier in hindsight, but it would have been better to run leverage above the DecPs and/or rising 20MAs which weren't even touched on the primary USA main longs of IWM, DIA and XLF/IYF. But consider a 150% long position from 11/15 to 11/28 - not bad. After that was just down to 100% long; and somewhat below that on 12/1, and then back to 100% long over the last couple of days. In fact, if you wanted to add leverage here I would say on QQQ based on the idea that 4th time is the charm above 4816.
SPY has launched from resistance and so we should see major resistance above for a significant top. This means 225-226 and then perhaps we will really get the party going with YR2 231 by year end. If not on SPY, then IWM YR2 appears very doable.
SPY, NDX and IWM below.