8/21/2017 Daily comment: "SPY tested and held AugS1 today, though the bounce for session seemed weak. But factor in moving averages, Bollinger bands and RSI, one has to conclude a 'maybe' low. In addition, this is happening as sentiment via standard put-call near highs for the year and CNN Fear & Greed Index at major lows."

Maybe indeed. With DIA and QQQ leading above their AugPs (and D50MAs) market got going. SPY jumped all the way from AugS1 back to AugP, and VTI nearly maybe the same move. IWM also put in respectable bounce from 2HS1.

As this was happening, VIX dropped *below* the crisis level that I've been pointing to all quarter at 12.23 (2HP & Q3P). XIV jumped above Q3P. TLT faded under its YP, and GLD struggling at Q3R1 area.

In sum a strong win for the bulls. Was it appropriate to jump on QQQ or DIA longs early? Yup, with VIX below 12.23 and both of these above all pivots. Was it appropriate to add on SPY at close? I don't think so - SPX bang on AugP.

A review of weekly charts shows many indexes declined to 10 or 20MAs, some of which hadn't tagged in several bars. Given the year, VIX and sentiment it is possible that 8/21 low was a decent pullback low. Given valuation and seasonality, it is also possible that the market will not trend as it did earlier in the year.

My bets are with stock bulls with VIX below 12.23. Now let's see how things unfold.

SPX (showing cash here to emphasize AugP, a key level to watch tomorrow), QQQ, TLT and VIX below.