SPY tested and held AugS1 today, though the bounce for session seemed weak. But factor in moving averages, Bollinger bands and RSI, one has to conclude a 'maybe' low. For SPY, this was the nearest test of D100MA since the election; also, a close back inside the Bollinger band after 2 closes outside; as RSI near lows for 2017. In addition, this is happening as sentiment via standard put-call near highs for the year and CNN Fear & Greed Index at major lows.

Even if this low idea plays out, though, safe havens - TLT and GLD above all pivots, HYG* below 2HP, VIX above 2HP, XIV below Q3P - still signaling caution.

A more bullish scenario for Tuesday would be more indexes showing bullish action on pivots like DIA and QQQ reclaiming AugPs as safe havens fail (TLT below YP, GLD Q3R1 rejection, etc). As long as VIX is above 2HP / Q3P combo at 12.23, stock bulls have to prove themselves and I will keep a defensive stance. However, VIX below that level as XIV recovers Q3P would definitively be bullish.

SPY, SPY with other indicators, and VIX below.

* I am starting to include HYG in the safe haven category as an inverse indicator like XIV - ie, HYG up is bullish for risk, and HYG weakness is bearish for risk.