I choose my language carefully. In Tuesday's daily comment, though said placing bets with bulls with VIX below critical levels, also wrote, "Given valuation and seasonality, it is also possible that the market will not trend as it did earlier in the year." Correct take so far.

The market is inviting sellers for Thursday via weak up bar on SPY under the AugP and D20MA. VIX also is right back at the critical zone of 12.23; and so far it has paid to err on side of caution with VIX above this level twice this month alone.

VIX TBD and XIV still decent hold of Q3P, but TLT above YP (above all pivots!) and GLD above all pivots from 7/27 on mean it is not all signals go for risk. Also, consider that only DIA and QQQ are above all pivots on USA mains.

Global indexes continue to lead with notable China strength, INDA back above all pivots, and RSX and EWZ (both already above all pivots) breaking out higher. I'm also watching oil via USO, with another try above the Q3P and AugP combo.

SPY, VIX, TLT and USO below.