Total market view

REVIEW
4/16/2017 Total market view: "Though N Korea worries seem to have ebbed over the weekend, there are still political concerns ahead with the French vote. It is possible that VIX remains elevated, or USA stocks bounce and then fail. It is a week to stay nimble, because a hold here could be one of the better buying opportunities of the year; yet in this environment there is the risk of lower before the bottom that matters. ... VIX closing just under its 1HP of 15.99, and some SPX and INDU variations within striking distance of recovering Q2Ps, make a bounce a possibility. Should this happen with VIX reversing lower from 1HP, the portfolio will return more long, continuing to emphasize what has shown pivotal strength during this pullback. If lower, then I will likely reduce the USA index positions further."

Result
Largely bullish action for stocks last week with VIX dropping from 1HP and SPY, DIA, IWM, VTI all recovering Q2Ps (DIA had another break & recovery), and QQQ reclaiming status of above all pivots. 

SUM
We will find out Monday whether index & currency calmness was correct given French election. Perhaps after 2 spikes down and rallies (Brexit and USA election), people weren't selling in front this time yet should have been. But I have to go with what the market is doing instead of what I imagine it could do. The fact is by the end of last week nearly all USA main indexes recovered Q2Ps, an overbought VIX was rejected by 1HP, and these were happening as some sentiment meters were recently bearish. These are often the best times to take a stab on risk assets.

Bottom line
Pivots will make decisions easy:
EEM, INDA, SPY, IWM and QQQ for matter all valid above Q2Ps.
KWEB valid above AprP just due to very late entry.

In addition, safe havens testing levels too:
VIX, TLT, GLD are all at Q2R1s - so bullish for stocks if safe havens are dropping, bearish if above.

If stock indexes continue to hold above pivots and safe havens drop, then hold or even add.
If some stock indexes fail again as safe havens go up, then reduce. 

Positioning
Back to 100% long is somewhat aggressive given the market in Q2, but I think the risk reward for entries is good here based on Q2P holds. Some non ideal entries got immediately smacked last week, and the Positioning post reviews these in more detail.

PIVOTS
USA main indexes - Q2P recoveries for SPY, DIA, IWM and VTI (but not NYA) as QQQ recovered AprP. IWM also back above all pivots. That's bullish, though DIA was a struggle. 

Safe havens - Above pivots but many testing decent resistance with VIX, TLT and GLD all at Q2R1s. AGG also on YP/HP combo and this will be a very interesting decision because FOMC raising rates and and TNX supposedly heading to 3.0 according to Wall St and all that. 

Sectors of note - SMH / SOXX has been great long for about a year and I was mentioning it as far back as March 2016. Not in currently but maybe should be - like others brief Q2P break and recovery last week. XLF not looking good here and the current choice of IWM vs XLF is clear from The Pivotal Perspective. Lastly XLE demonstrating why I don't like to own pivotal weakness with a possible low on YP yet below D200 and all other pivots and fast whack back down to lows.

Global indexes - At beginning of Q2 all that I track were above all pivots. That quickly changed, but still compared to USA indexes that broke Q2Ps (all except QQQ), EEM & INDA remain above Q2Ps. I think these will continue to be the stars of 2017, like last year EWZ and RSX did well for most of the 2016.

Currency and commodity - Things could change on Monday, but right now DXY weaker than EUR says more risk of USA gov't shutdown than Le Pen mayhem. DXY 3rd test of YP this year on 4/20.

OTHER TECHNICALS
Let's not lose sight that Q2 and Apr both down for most risk assets and up for safe havens. The places where assets turn positive area also worth keeping in mind.

Also, per this E-wave idea, the "easy money" has been made and we are due for longer period of range bound grind - if higher, then not by much. If lower, then likely still bought before too much damage. This model based on SPY primarily with other USA indexes, not global stocks. 

VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
Unfortunately these are not helping the market with weak data causing plunge in Citigroup Economic Surprise Index last week. Even though back to long due to risk reward opportunity, I don't think we are about to have a sustained up move. 

SENTIMENT
Sentiment lower readings reached on 2 of 4 indexes in early April. Put-call has dropped since then, but AAII even lower last week. 

TIMING
(Proprietary experimental work in progress model)
April dates
4/6-7 - minor stock low
4/10 - key lower high for USA main indexes
4/19-20 - looks bearish for stocks, positive for safe havens
4/26 TBD

4/19-20 was listed as bearish risk & positive for safe havens from 4/9 Total market view. So far TLT & GLD highs 4/18 (-1), along with key higher lows for stocks (except DIA low). So that is kind of interesting and a reason why I persist in this timing project :)