Came into week:
1 DIA
1 QQQ (12/7)
2 INDA (3/3 & 3/28)
2 EEM (3/13 & 4/3)
2 IWM short hedges
40% net long
4/17: IWM short covers, +1 DIA, +2 SPY, +1 EWZ
4/18: none
4/19: -2 DIA, -EWZ
4/20: +2 IWM, +1 KWEB
4/21: None
Chopped with aggressive buying 4/17, then immediately taken out with DIA and EWZ fail.
I may have been too eager to buy the Q2P pivot holds and upon reviewing these entries realized everything that failed did not have rising MA or MACD support.
Best entries:
Pivot test and hold
Rising MA clear (more than one even better)
MACD recent cross or about to cross (tweaked settings 7, 12, 5)
While I almost never enter without a pivotal reason, it is clear that most better entries over the months & years have had two of three and often three of three conditions listed above. The impressive catches of turns like 7/8/16 TLT short and 2/12/16 DIA long were both speculative ie a short above all pivots and long below all pivots; 10/17/14 QQQ buy (before this site) held 1HP exact and reclaimed D200 so that is indeed two of three.
Additionally, I started the positioning meter last fall to:
quantify stock index strength
emphasize current leaders
clarify when I thought leveraging and hedging were appropriate
Initially I left save havens off the possibility list just due to time and tracking. But in reality buying safe havens is easier and often more profitable than shorting, even if those shorts are hedges. It would have been better to take long exposure down by GLD, VIX and then partial TLT - though I don't regret taking gains on Q1 overweight XLF. I will try to keep this in mind for the future.
Current
1 QQQ (12/7)
2 INDA (3/3 & 3/28)
2 EEM (3/13 & 4/3)
2 SPY (4/17)
2 IWM (4/20)
1 KWEB (4/20)
10 longs - 5 global, 5 USA
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Positioning information
1 position represents 10% of capital.
Limits: 15 or 150% long, -50% shorts, hedges or safe havens, 200% max total exposure.
Currency & commodity positions are not included in this system.