Sum
VIX and XIV are still supportive of stocks. Levels to watch are move from MarS1 and YR2 respectively. XIV slightly above YR2 currently but "looks like" it may fade - please note the 11/3-4 XIV & stock index low was a fantastic tell. I always view tests of yearly levels as a big deal and the more things that say the same thing the better the signal.
TLT stabilizing but still under all pivots, and GLD perking up with the DXY drop last week. DXY aided this but GLD held key levels nonetheless.
I think we will see signs of strength in the safe havens and then possibly VIX/XIV turn before or in early stages of a stock drop. Stage is set for this move, but it hasn't happened yet.
VIX
VIX weekly chart mostly red bars which means starting the week higher, finishing lower, and remaining low for the year overall. 2014 low has been support though.
VIX daily has given a few recent fake-outs which is unusual for this usually reliable market tell. Recently MarS1 being bought.
VIX with pivots only show several MACD crosses that haven't gone anywhere. As with stock indexes best signal pivot plus MA plus slope plus MACD or RSI setup. 10MA slightly up, 20MA flat, 50MA down, then the others down. Market may not take VIX lift seriously until 50MA is sloping higher like late 2016.
VIX sum - below all pivots and MAs is supportive for stocks. But recent support on MarS1 may be prelude to lift.
XIV
YR2! Wow.
Daily chart shows slight overshoot of YR2 area but under MarR1. A fade back under YR1 and then rejection of Q2R3 would be bearish. Anything above YR2 is still bullish.
RSI some divergence but another move outside daily BB is sign of strength. This could go higher yet.
XIV sum - YR2 worth watching here.
TLT
Weekly between levels all year thus far.
Daily chart shows holding 2016 low; given all the consensus around rising rates, there could be counter-trend move in the works. Also, TLT might be closer or above Q2P but that is getting ahead of things.
TLT sum - For now below all pivots and above only 10MA. But bounce from 2016 low might be setting up more of counter-trend bounce. This would also impact financials.
GLD
Clear hold of YP 1HP!
Daily chart move aided by $DXY drop but up and hold of key pivot area nonetheless.
Daily chart buy decision chart shows some falling and some rising MAs on 3/15. Rising: 50, 400; Falling: 10, 20, 100. Flat: 200. Don't know that will continue but if stocks drop then GLD more likely supported too.
GDX
Great moves in 2016, not doing much this year. Not nearly as good a buy setup with several days below levels and then move bang into falling D20MA. Also, still under long term pivot 1HP whereas GLD cleared.