3/6 week started with: 10 longs, 1 short hedge, 90% net
2 DIA (first positions near election with shuffle week of 1/30)
3 XLF (pre and post election)
1 QQQ (12/7)
2 SPY (1/3)
1 SMH (1/18)
1 INDA (3/3)
Adjustments (all posted in Daily comment after close)
3/6: None.
3/7: -2 IWM short hedges, 70% net long
3/8: None
3/9: +1 IWM short hedge cover, 80% net long
3/10: None
3/5 week ends & 3/13 week begins with 10 longs, 2 short hedges, 80% net.
3/13 week
3/13: +1 EEM, 11 longs, 2 short hedges, 90% net long
3/14: +1 IWM short hedge cover; also -1 XLF, 10 longs, 1 short hedge, 90% net long
3/15: None
3/16: IWM long, 100% net
3/17: None
3/13 week ends with 11 longs, 1 short hedge, 100% net long.
So adding INDA 3/3 and EEM 3/13 have done very well, as well as nice covers on IWM short hedges for gains, and taking gains on 1 of 3 XLF before the big drop last week. I may have gotten lucky, but I thought there might be a buy the rumor sell the news on the rate hike stuff, and instead got even more a reaction. Even though increased long exposure as of 3/16 close back up to 100%, IWM doing fine. Even though easiest $ this year was loading up long leverage long in Feb on tech and global stocks - which i didn't do - last moves have been a bit of alpha for Q1.
Thoughts from here - Given moves in both stock indexes and safe havens I think index drop is the next move, but this is not something to play heavily since all indexes dropping onto support. Anything not above all pivots is candidate for take (so if IWM drops back down under MarP, that would be a quick out). Anything rejected from major levels or below levels is also a candidate to take gains or hedge.
Also keep in mind new quarters often bring new buy signals. Heading into 2017 I was determined to hold longs from November, and this actually cost quite a bit of gains as I was in heavily in IWM, DIA and XLF and this meant not as much capital for QQQ and EEM & other global index buys that were given early in 2017.
Given the year thus far and DXY weakness, I'd like to hold INDA and EEM longs. Global longs just 20% of portfolio and they may turn out to be the big winners of 2017. Tech and SMH have continued to be very strong. XLF might be the next take, or simply add an SPY hedge based on cluster resistance.
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Positioning limits
15 or 150% long, -50% shorts or hedges, 200% max total exposure.
Currency & commodity positions are not included in this system.