Last week: "We'll have 3 new pivots this week, so the biggest change-over date of the year after 12/31. For now levels to watch are VIX YP (just below), NDX Q2P (fractionally below). To translate, market in serious trouble if VIX moves and closes above its YP."
NDX Q2P broke, but VIX YP held! In fact the combination of INDU YP and VIX YP gave the chance of turn on 6/27, and the move on 6/28 was crystal clear using these methods.
Sum
Due to RSI extremes on the safe havens, I would rather see a bit of a fade there as stocks rally further. If you were savvy, you were reducing stock longs on Friday 6/24, then buying back small portions on 6/27 and larger 6/28.
You are holding some safe havens although admittedly that gap up on 6/24 was tough to buy if you had taken some profits on the major level rejections near 6/21.
If you want to play global stocks, EWZ continues to lead as it was entirely above its YP on the drop, and in fact above all pivots from 6/16 on.
Pivots
USA stocks are back to bull mode with one catch - RUT / IWM still below the YP. So that is the big level to watch next week, along with XIV Q3P.
Safe havens TLT and GLD are well above all pivots and while seeing extremes where counter-trend move becomes more likely, we "should" see major pivot resistance for a big turn.
Other technicals
We are reaching very rare RSI territory in bonds - not to mention the all time low ha - and I did a special post on TYX this week to show. Maybe the market will fake me out here, but my view is that we are NOT seeing signs of a typical turn. Even though short to medium term snapback rally in yield / drop in TLT looks more likely, longer term looks lower for yield / higher for TLT.
Base case: as long as TLT is screaming higher, stock upside limited.
Sentiment
Daily put-call when from very low levels at the top in June to notably high levels 6/28. Smart $ was right to hedge though, and those who did avoided some of the pain of the drop.
Valuation and fundamentals
See detailed post today. I've lost faith in WSJ data and not sure what to make of that project. But keep to case that we will need fundamental economic positive surprises for stocks to have a better rally, although when that happens people will also start to worry about interest rates. Safe havens will likely stay strong with the index below the zero line.
Timing
What do you know, timing windows on both the low and current high of year in stocks. Not perfect and some miss but not bad.
July dates
7/13-15
7/29-8/5 strong