This blog is about pivots but I do check other indicators - RSI, moving averages and their slope, Bollinger bands. Yields are entering into historically rare territory, technically speaking. This is certainly in part due to the arm twisting, to put it mildly, of global central banks. So I am not saying it stops here. But if it did we should see signs of a turn in the charts.
Usually I keep to TLT but to show the very long term history using TYX here. From The Pivotal Perspective, downtrend in force below Q3P at 2.43 and still long term bearish below 2HP at 2.52. First target Q3S1 at 2.10, then 2HS1 2.02.
Sum
The 30 year yield (TYX) tested its all time low on Friday. Not showing the 10 year TNX here, but that came .02 shy of its all time low as well.
RSI extreme with divergence reached on TYX daily chart, extreme reached on weekly that is somewhat negative, ie below 30, nearing extreme on monthly as well. All these give chance of some turn. However, I think the Bollinger band action especially on the weekly chart is bearish for yield; while a move back into the band is likely, the better yield rallies come after better looking stabilization lows inside the band.
TYX Q
20MA resistance since 2014 Q2. the 2015 low was 2.22; 2016 low 2.20 and now 2.24. You get what I am pointing out here - the market just tested the all time low in 30 year bonds on Friday 7/1. Anything above 2.22 is potentially bullish for yield.
TYX M
Monthly chart RSI nearing full OS. Just look how uncommon that has been since 2000. Most of those times have coincided with stock market turmoil. Another level to watch is the close of the previous low at 2.25.
TYX W
And there is the low on the weekly chart. RSI OS, but Bollinger band action is quite negative here. My view: yields would have a better chance of a turnaround if we saw the down pressure slowing, ie staying inside the band, instead of a huge plunge below.
TYX D
Also RSI extreme with some divergence. A reaction move would be normal, but given the momentum think we will ultimately see lower. If I am wrong about this, ie the turn is right here right now, we should see a swift move back above 2.25.