5/3/2018

Tug of war continues. Market cannot go up, but cannot go down seriously either.

+s
SPY massive hold of HP & D200MA combo - important long term levels
QQQ held MayP
DIA also held HP and D200MA
IWM remained above QP and MP (MayP), above all long term and medium term pivots
NYA held YP

-s
SPY below MP
QQQ under QP
NYA under HP and D200MA

VIX spiked all the way to MP exact, and fell back under YR1 - point for the stock bulls
VXX tested QP and fell back, also a point for the bulls

As you can see there are now more +s than -s after this move got started on Monday with 5 clear negatives on the USA mains. The door is open for the bulls to rally back - we'll see what happens.

SPY, IWM and NYA below. 

5/2/2018

The mixed conditions referenced yesterday mostly the same today. Despite the afternoon sell-off, QQQ above all pivots except daily and IWM above all pivots except weekly. 

However, SPY broke its MP slightly, DIA had MP rejection, and NYA broke its 2HP. 

Oddly VIX and VXX remained unperturbed. if these were confirm downside risk I would expect the two USA leaders to cave. However, as long as these remain supportive of stocks I cannot totally abandon a bullish resolution to this choppy sideways period. 

That said, other internals are looking like they do at the start of a significant down leg. Note - not all weak internals generate -10%, but when a -10% drop starts to happen they look they do now. Daily advance decline line is below zero; advance-decline volume is negative; and new highs new lows are starting to look worrisome.

SPY, DIA and QQQ below. 

5/1/2018

USA main indexes did go lower today as expected. However, as VIX and VXX had somewhat indicated from yesterday, the drop was not entirely real, new monthly pivots held for a few indexes on all but DIA, and the close level was higher for SPY, QQQ, and IWM. 

Stock indexes remain in quite mixed fashion with QQQ reclaiming its Q2P, therefore above all pivots; and IWM above all pivots except weekly. But DIA is below QP, MP and WP. The linking factor is likely DXY strength. 

SPY rallied off the lows but was unable to close above its WP. In this kind of range environment, there have been several incidences where this simple indicator has acted as useful trigger.

If this commentary is sounding mixed that is because markets are quite mixed - if trying longs, QQQ and IWM are the clear leaders among USA mains. If trying shorts, there are several choices that are below both QPs and MPs - DIA, FXI, EEM, KWEB, EWZ, RSX (though RSX is bang on its YP - watching for that to break for 2nd time).

SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM below - plus SPY 1H to show the move down from QP, then WP break, down to WS1, back to WP again.

4/30/2018

Bearish action on all 5 USA mains today:

SPY QP rejection
QQQ QP fail
DIA MP rejection
IWM MP break
NYA MP break

Oddly, VIX and VXX did not confirm selling but days like this are relatively rare. The Pivotal Perspective is clear - path of least resistance for stocks is lower. 

4/27/2018

Hm - despite the chance to really launch QQQ had rejection from HR1 and its AprP. Yet it managed to recapture its QP. 

SPY still facing resistance at QP MP combo, and DIA still stuck under its MP. 

As usual more over the weekend on the blog.

4/26/2018

As of yesterday I thought that bears still had the edge because SPY, DIA and QQQ below QPs. But market proved me wrong with an incredible rally from QQQ that took it all the way back to its QP and slightly above. After hours has rallied further.

It seems the ball is back in the bull court. VIX had the move right again. 

Now if real rally SPY will carry above its QP as well. Also note the 2017 close looking like resistance several times and yet - here we are at flat again.

QQQ, SPY and DIA below.

4/25/2018

Again things could have been worse today.

Indexes not on major levels for a real low: SPY, QQQ, DIA

Indexes on levels that make trading low a possibility: IWM (MP), NYA (HP), VIX (MP and VXX (HP)

While the latter counts, I think one of the big three will have to be on a significant pivot level for a real low. 

TLT continuing down below all pivots - after 4/18 MP break every day lower or sideways. GLD also failed to recapture QP as GDX also had resistance at QP and SLV fell back under all pivots except MP.

SPY and IWM below.

4/24/2018

After two days of trying to hold the market up, today the bulls caved. 

SPY QP & MP rejection
QQQ QP break & rejection
DIA MP break
NYA QP rejection

But - 
IWM still above all pivots
NYA held HP

Today all except IWM medium term trends turned from a mixed status to clearly down. This will likely lead to another test of the long term trends. As this will be the third or fourth test (depending on how you count late March and early April) this year of long term levels, and now with a 2nd lower high on the daily charts, one wonders what will happen should those levels test again.

If the selloff caught you by surprise due to the gap up, the early clues were that SPY did not have a 15 min bar close above its WP, and in the 9:45 bar closed below its QP. QQQ quickly followed in the 10:15 bar to smash through its QP - considering the move overnight, glaringly weak. And VIX lifted above its YS1 early in the day.

There were two indexes on pivot levels on the lows today - IWM MP and NYA HP. But I don't think this is enough. Path of least resistance is another leg lower.

SPY D, IWM D, and SPY 15 min below. On the 15 min chart, usual QP and MP in orange; WP and DP in maroon. 

4/23/2018

File today in the "could have been worse" category. While SPY remained below QP and MP, QQQ held QP on close, DIA help MP on close, and IWM remained above all pivots.

VXX stayed below QP, and VIX was lower despite the stock drop.

The big shift in pivot status was in the metals. GLD second day this quarter below the QP; GDX Q break after YP rejection; SLV back under YP, HP and QP after 3 days above these levels last week!

Oh yes - cryptos. As mentioned in 4/15 Total market view cryptos seemed primed for rally that that has gotten in gear with leader ETH above YP on 4/19 and continuing to power up. BTC followed above its MP on 4/20 and has added to gains. 

SPY, QQQ and DIA below. 

4/20/2018

I was a bit surprised at the negativity on Friday - a lot of levels crumbled without much fight. 

Keep in mind that I have been far from bullish this year, but did think as of last week's Total market view that edge had shifted in favor of bulls and felt comfortable with that assessment in the middle of the week with all 5 main indexes above all pivots. 

Alas that did not last long.

SPY QP and MP break
QQQ MP break, still holding QP though
DIA QP rejection, still holding MP though
NYA QP rejection, still above MP though

IWM remains above all pivots.

As usual more this weekend on the blog. 

4/19/2018

Pivot configurations on the 5 USA main indexes are a bit less bullish than yesterday but things could have been far worse.

-s
DIA fractionally below QP
NYA below QP

+s
SPY held QP near exact, still above all pivots
QQQ held above all pivots, bouncing from HR1
IWM well above all pivots
DIA could have looked like rejection of QP, but wasn't (due to comeback)

VIX below YR1; if more trouble ahead VIX should have closed above that level
VXX QP resistance

Despite the two leading negatives I actually consider today a win for the bulls. 

Also - breaking news - ETHUSD above its YP and already testing HP. BTCUSD knocking on door of MP recovery. I think the best move in cryptos this year is just ahead. 

SPY, VIX and ETHUSD below.
 

4/18/2018

All 5 main indexes above all pivots - first time in about a month. DIA tested and held its QP; NYA also above its QP. Bulls have the ball. I am thinking the market is underestimating upside; if SPY reaches major resistance before any real top, that is a decent move ahead. Weekly charts have even more room above.

SPY and DIA below.

4/17/2018

Bulls win. As VIX has anticipated since last Thursday, bullish resolution to recent stagnation. QQQ gave a tip yesterday with a second close above its QP.

Today, SPY, QQQ, and DIA joined IWM above all pivots. NYA the one laggard, slightly below the QP.

Assuming we see major resistance before the next top of significance, there is quite a bit of upside. 

SPY and VIX below. 

4/16/2018

Some minor pivot improvements, but not the one the bulls really want which is SPY and DIA above Q2Ps.

VIX seems to think the next move is higher for stocks.

SPY and VIX below.

4/13/2018

Yesterday's Daily comment: "The SPX set QP will likely decide the next major market move."

Today that level was tagged and rejected, along with bearish pivot action on QQQ and DIA.

But strangely, VIX and VXX did not confirm the move so I think stocks have a shot at a comeback early next week. As usual I'll try to sort it out on the blog over the weekend.

SPY below.

4/12/2018

Despite the seemingly bearish implications of yesterday,  Thursday rallied and the market made some pivot improvements:

DIA closed above MP
QQQ closed above Q2P, fractionally
IWM lifted above all pivots
NYA closed above its MP

XBI rallied above all pivots
SMH closed above Q2P

Usually, tech getting into gear is good for the market.

Lastly, VIX collapsed with clear rejection from MP.

However - SPX SPY ES stopped cold at the MPs and after hours lower so far. The SPX set QP will likely decide the next major market move.

SPY and VIX below.
 

4/11/2018

Door is open for sellers tomorrow:

DIA MP test and rejection
QQQ QP test and rejection
NYA MP fail

VIX MP test and hold

Interesting, IWM has emerged as the current stock index leader. Very few asset classes are above all pivots; today, IWM made that status fractionally but still  - above the level. GLD delivered per recent Total market view but today's bar looked toppy. If indexes continue to hold above key support it looks like IWM will be the leader on the next move up. Something to keep in mind should another one of the big three (SPY, DIA, QQQ) also give a buy and VIX / VXX confirms.

QQQ and IWM below.

4/10/2018

There were some pivot improvements today:

IWM above QP, testing MP, nearly above all pivots
NYA jumped back above HP and MP - still below QP

Additionally, VIX under YR2 and VXX stalling at the YP area. 

DIA closed fractionally above MP but really too close to call - YM futures did not make the same move.

SPY and QQQ still below QP and MP though, and these seem to be acting as resistance after hours.

Oil soared today and now looks to be the pivotal leader, above all pivots and above YR1. 

SPY and VIX below.

4/9/2018

Today's action was bearish:

DIA MP tag and rejection
QQQ QP tag and rejection
IWM QP rejection
NYA MP and HP rejection

VIX lift above YR2

And yet as I type after hours looks quite strong. We'll see what happens. 

DIA and NYA below.
 

Vacation notice

To my dedicated readers - I'm going on a wonderful trip with my lovely wife and it's time to be away from the screen. Though I've barely missed a day since starting this site at the closure of a hedge fund in September 2015, I'm taking the next 2+ weeks completely off. Back near 4/8. 

There weren't too much people thinking about a major top in January after being massively bullish 2017 Q4 and into the start of 2018. But here at The Pivotal Perspective that's exactly how it played out.

1/23/2018 Daily comment: "There are so many indexes on or near YR1s the situation calls Jan-Feb 2016 to mind, as the only difference was that they were on YS1s. Both years started with a directional bang, reached yearly levels, and then... we shall see. That is our task now, to assess the chances of a turn here."