3/22/2018

3/18/2018 Total market view: "Any weakness in smaller timeframe charts may be a prelude to a further drop. This will be especially the case if Dow shows rejection of its MP."

3/21/2018 Daily comment: "Indexes were about even but I view today as clearly bearish. DIA and NYA MPs acted as resistance .... Next move for risk should be down."

And down it went. Going back to my last Total market view, note that there were two scenarios for the main indexes - sideways or down. No up scenario. This is because "resistance matters" is my theme of 2018 and I'll keep repeating it until it stops working. 

VIX has done an admirable job of saying that the selling is for real. On 1/29 VIX exploded above all pivots and I was very clear that it was time to take defensive action. On 2/27 VIX launched from YR1 and that began a multi-day sell-off in stocks, nicely coinciding with some key index MPs. Then 3/19 also jumped back above YR1, and though YR2 was tested and there was some shuffle in front of FOMC, all signals were clear on yesterday's close - scram. Also note, despite the NDX rally back to new highs, VIX remained above YP HP and QP the entire time.

Now what? Any hope for a bounce due to general 2018 leader QQQ holding its MP on close are being dashed in overnight action in NQ futures, and ES and YM are following along. ES is down about 100 points in not much more than 24 hours. With big moves the market reaches levels quickly, already at QP at 2629. This needs to hold to stop the bleeding.

Going back to regular session action now, an assessment:

SPY - MP break and rejection, nearing QP
QQQ - MP hold (larger move rejection from YR1 failure that began at the start of the week continues)
DIA - MP rejection from yesterday cascaded today, already with slight break of QP
IWM - QR rejection but still above all pivots
NYA - NYA signals rarely disappoint. MP rejection from yesterday, QP break from open, HP break. This is bad. 

VIX back to near YR3 so that is also a key level along with MarP in terms of real panic. 

SPY, DIA, NYA and VIX below.

3/21/2018

Indexes were about even but I view today as clearly bearish.

DIA and NYA MPs acted as resistance
SPY QR1 acted as resistance
IWM MR1 acted as resisatnce
QQQ between levels, but nearish tag of YR1 failed too

VIX held YR1 as support

Next move for risk should be down.

SPY, DIA and NYA. 

3/20/2018

3/19/2018 Daily comment: "As an aside, USO held up remarkably well considering." And those who took note of that - along with USO maintaining above all pivots including weekly and daily - were handsomely rewarded today.

And yet it may be a partial quick out as "resistance matters" and there was noticeable selling at the 2/26 close and price high resistance zone shown in red lines in the USO chart below.  

In other markets a quiet day without much change in pivot status. NYA tried to recovery its MP but failed, and while anything can happen on FOMC day I give edge to bears. 

SPY, NYA and USO below. 

3/19/2018

Some significant damage today from The Pivotal Perspective:

SPY QR1 rejection
QQQ YR1 rejection
DIA MP break
IWM QR1 break but comeback so not pure rejection; could be pause
NYA MP break

+s
SPY MP hold
NYA HP hold

-s outweigh positives

As an aside, USO held up remarkably well considering. 

The other larger point is that in the not too distant past 2018 leaders above YR1s consisted of: QQQ, SMH, XBI, EWZ, RSX and KRE. 

But now they have all failed back under YR1s. As I have said over and over in Total market views the last few weeks, "resistance matters."

SPY, DIA and QQQ below. 

3/16/2018

DIA recovered its MP today, so that makes all 5 USA main indexes above all long & medium term pivots. 

VIX had a slight break under YR1 which had acted as support the last 3 trading days; not enough to be definitive, but still, lower VIX tends to be more bullish for stocks. 

And yet one cannot help but notice 5 days down in a row for SPY, something that hasn't happened in quite some time. You could say that 5 down days in a row with minimal percentage damage is bullish. You could also say institutions are selling. As usual I'll try to figure it out in the next Total market view. 

SPY below. 

3/15/2018

Not many changes to pivot status today. DIA is again testing its MP without any definitive direction.

But there have been recent changes in the number of indexes above YR1s. EWZ got walloped today, with YR1 rejection and close under MarchP. This week leaders SMH and XBI have fallen back under YR1s after trading above. RSX is also on this list - had cleared its YR1 but since failed.

Of the indexes I am tracking, only QQQ remains above its YR1. 

If leadership is thinning, then rotation is happening or markets are about to drop further.

SPY and DIA below. 

3/14/2018

Bit more trouble in markets today, as DIA closed under its MP. As it turned out TLT closed above its MP for the first time in weeks. Risk appetite is changing. VIX also lifted above its YR1 for the 2nd day.

Not sure of next move. DIA is a pivot break and not really a rejection, so that has the chance to come back. Still, if you are bullish you don't want to see USA main indexes closing below pivots. 

End of Q1 is fast approaching. Time to take another look at these charts for path of least resistance on next move. There are several that look quite toppy, namely, SPY, DIA, EFA, EWJ, ACWI, FXI. Others that I have excluded are a judgment call. 

If more indexes join Dow below its MP then alarm bells will be ringing. In addition, DIA trying to hold + YTD % return. 

SPY, DIA and DIA Q chart below. 

3/13/2018

Selling from highs today and while the markets are not without concern I still give bulls the benefit of the doubt.

This is because all 5 USA main indexes are above all pivots. So my tune will change if DIA breaks under its MP (monthly pivot) for the second time this month.

VIX also poked above its YR1 but still under its weekly pivot so that is still a toss up. 

The damage today:

SPY rejection from QR1
QQQ rejection from QR3

Also, current sector leader had traded above its YR1 but faded back under slightly today. 

SPY, DIA and VIX below.

3/12/2018

SPY paused on QR2 but otherwise bulls remain in charge with QQQ powering up and VIX not able to clear YR1. 

SPY, QQQ  and VIX below. 

3/9/2018

9 year anniversary and bulls celebrated with a big party.

The tip-offs yesterday worked out well - all 5 USA mains above all pivots per yesterday's close, the first day that has happened since 2/1. 

As usual more over the weekend. SPY below. 

3/8/2018

Win for the bulls as both DIA and NYA closed above all pivots, and SPY cleared QR1.

But NDX/QQQ is testing YR1 again which is where both previous declines of 2018 have started. We'll see what happens. 

SPY, DIA and QQQ below.

3/7/2018

Several bullish signs today. Market could have dropped on bad news but didn't. 

SPY, QQQ, IWM above all pivots; NYA too, fractionally
Only DIA below MP - still a warning

But VIX YR2 rejection, TLT under all pivots and GLD MarP fail seem to give edge to bulls.

In addition, put-call remains stubbornly high despite index strength. 

PS - I've been mentioning KRE recently for the first time on this site and it just broke out to new highs. 

SPY, DIA and KRE below.

3/6/2018

The theme of the latest Total market view was "Resistance matters." Today, DIA could not close above its MP (March pivot). It was not really a rejection either, but still. In addition, SPY on QR1, QQQ on YR1.

After hours news has hit and now ES is back near its MP. If that goes watch out below. 

SPY, DIA and ES below. 

3/5/2018

Have to hand it to the bulls today. Despite opening lower again, with SPY below the MarP, markets rallied strongly all day. A lot more in the leadership column above all pivots:

QQQ, IWM, SPY*
SMH, XBI, KRE, XLF*
EEM, KWEB, EWZ, RSX, ACWI*
XME, DBA, USO* DBC*

*'s = today 

Notably, however, not DIA which closed very near its MarP without clearing above. 

SPY and DIA below. Also note SPY lifting from 2017 close placing bulls in charge. From here, SPY QR1 and DIA MP (monthly pivot) the levels to watch.

Also, put-call remaining stubbornly high - even the 3 day avg - showing huge skepticism towards this rally.  

3/2/2018

Friday could have been far worse, but wasn't. Still above all pivots:

QQQ
SMH, XBI back on the leaderboard, KRE (sub-sector)
EWZ, RSX
VIX

That is one more than yesterday. 

Some other positives:
IWM recaptured QP
NYA held 1HP (though below QP)
VIX tested YR3 and closed under YR2.

However, SPY still under its MarP which was clear resistance near the close.

As usual, a lot more coming up on the blog over the weekend. Sentiment per put-call is very bearish, but current main index leader QQQ has been above all pivots since 2/23. I'm not denying the declines of last week, and I've tweeted about the threatening configurations of quarterly charts, but when the leader holds above all pivots it usually means to not be too bearish. 

SPY and QQQ below. 

3/1/2018

Since VIX launched back above YR1 on Tuesday, and we saw SPX/SPY and INDU/DIA FebP rejections along with NDX/QQQ YR1 rejection, markets have been in trouble.

SPY opened above all pivots but could not maintain and finished below MarP, as did DIA. Both IWM and NYA are below Q1Ps so this means breadth is weak. Only the main index leader QQQ remains above all pivots. And this is not by very much. Several global indexes had a chance to finish above all pivots but failed as well - FXI, EEM, ACWI. Last but not least, SPY is hanging on to +YTD% by just a little bit; anything lower will spark more serious selling. 

The leaderboard of indexes that I track above all pivots is:

QQQ
SMH, XBI (KRE if willing to expand to that relatively minor sector of a sector)
EWZ, RSX
VIX

As it turns out all except VIX were on the buy list ideas near the 2/9 low. And volatility was on the buy list well before that. 

As I tweeted this morning while SPY was above all pivots - "If any doubt on how current market situation will resolve I think the answer lies in quarterly charts. Still a month to close but looks like upside is seriously done on $SPX. Still may have bounce attempts as market tests various support levels - pros will be selling rallies."

The path of least resistance is QQQ joining the 4 other USA mains below MarP. But keep in mind the market sentiment is quite bearish, and we are likely to see several bounce attempts especially as short term charts reach oversold levels. In addition, VIX YR3 rejection gives some hope for a bounce Friday. 

SPY, QQQ and VIX below. 

2/28/2018

VIX rarely disappoints. Yesterday's launch from YR1 support was bearish for the market, along with pivot rejections on SPY, DIA and NYR1 rejection from leader QQQ.

New March pivots will be a major tell. As I type ES, YM and NQ still above MarPs. But it is likely that we see global indexes in mixed condition, with at least some names below monthly pivots. 

If MarPs don't hold on the current leaders, watch out below.

SPY and VIX below. 

2/27/2018

Now things are getting interesting. There were a lot of bearish signs today as there were several pivot & resistance smackdowns.

SPY FebP rejection
QQQ YR1 rejection (still above all pivots
DIA FebP rejection
IWM FebP near tag and rejection

VIX back above YR1 with the look of support

There was also a lot of trouble coming out of China with SHComp, FXI, KWEB and EEM all sharply lower. KWEB lost leadership status of above all pivots. Long term EEM bulls, watch out. FWIW this was the 2nd bearish move from VWO YR1 as well. 

If you have been playing along with starter buys 2/9, adds 2/12-14, and then perhaps 2/23, it was a day to be locking in some gains. If extra long probably time to reduce; if good buys on the right vehicles (KWEB excepting) you can give some room and see what happens at MarPs and perhaps the NDX/QQQ YR1 rejection and VIX move got you to take some hedging positions early enough in the day. 

The next move is really up for grabs. If NDX cannot take out its high then the market could have an uh oh moment and flush to the downside. Right now I think the higher risk is in the global names especially China as DXY strengthens. As I type SHComp is hanging on to YP but anything lower will be below all pivots. 

SPY, SPY pivots only (no S or R lines for the pure perfection of it), QQQ and VIX below.

2/26/2018

What a win for bulls. Tech (QQQ SMH XBI) and with 2018 leaders EWZ and RSX continue to power up, though KWEB was a notable disappointment. If you came into the week prepared to be aggressively long tech per Total market view then you already had a big score. 

QQQ back to YR1 as fast or faster than the drop. No sign of hesitation so far so I'm thinking clear in the near future. Plus, lots of NQ shorts that others have to cover!

VIX fell back under YR1 slightly. 

Extra bullish scenario is NDX / QQQ decently above YR1 and VIX clearly below YR1.  We'll see what happens. 

SPY, QQQ and VIX below. 

PS: Index that is near top of the charts in 2018 and made the best new high compared to late January highs? RSX or if you like the iShares version that is ERUS. 

2/23/2018

A lot of bullish developments today.

Leader QQQ above all pivots, with clear launch above FebP and above QR2 as well
SPY above QR1
IWM held positive YTD %

Also, VIX rejection of YR2

A few more things joined EWZ, RSX and KWEB above all pivots today. QQQ as mentioned, plus XBI and SMH - see a theme? Tech is leading, and this is usually bullish for the market. 

SPY and then pivot & MA (moving average) only charts QQQ, KWEB, XBI and SMH below.