9/16/2016

SPY going ex-dividend looks worse than futures or cash index here. VIX still holding resistance and the result has been a relatively tame pullback. A lot more charts soon on the blog. 

9/15/2016

Bulls won Thursday with Tech set back above all pivots. Shazam, back to new NDX highs? Honestly I didn't think the dip would end this easily but VIX has been the tip-off, never signaling real trouble for the market. The high in VIX was Monday open at the 2HP and then closed under Q3P each day this week.

From this week's total market view: "The VIX has worked extremely well confirming the real trouble and when it is ending, so I will continue to use that to guide my decisions. Watch the reaction from Q3P to 2HP 18.28 to 20.07. Study the VIX charts in the safe haven section to see what we are looking for on a buy like 2/12 and 6/28. Simply stated above 20.07 means real trouble for the market, while a slow-down of the move up and subsequent rejection of that area could be a decent stock buy setup."

So what will it be tomorrow? I don't know. 4 of 5 USA mains are still below monthly pivots. TLT looks quite weak, and oil per CL1 and USO also looks vulnerable. But right now, leaders (QQQ on mains, SOXX on sectors, XBI helping too) have led and VIX has dropped from resistance so one cannot be too bearish. 

SPY, QQQ and VIX below. 

9/14/2016

Glass half full: SPY and SPX above pivot and moving average support, as SepS2 and daily 100MAs held held for both. Small down bars show weak selling and buyers coming in; also, positive divergences on RSI on the smaller timeframes (1H, 2H, etc). VIX still below Q3P 18.28.

Glass half empty: main index current leader NDX / QQQ stopped cold at its SepP retest, which has been resistance for 4 of the last 4 trading days if you count .13 on QQQ as close enough for one of those days; otherwise, 3 of 4 tags of the level. Most USA main indexes could not maintain bounce back inside daily Bollinger bands. XIV dropped below YP. 

Others +s: IWM above SepS1, VTI holding SepS2 and D100MA.

Other -s: DIA breaking D100, TLT (which seems to be leading this drop) very weak bounce on crucial support; oil (back under 3 / 4 pivots on CL1 contract, under all pivots USO).

We'll see what happens but thus far I see no reason to change my preferred scenario of probably -5% in SPX. 

SPY, QQQ and VIX below. 

 

 

9/13/2016

SPY dropped from its SepP today, but VIX at the close was interesting. 

Nuance of the method: the "looks of support" or "look of resistance" are more reliable than just clearing a level with those. Case in point: IWM and XLF were above SepPs yesterday only to tank today, but not with the "look of support." We saw something similar with the AugP on TLT; it was above the level twice, but not lifting from the level with it appearing as support, which is a difference. Let's include another example: today's low in IWM SepS1 has the "look of support" (check the small green dots in IWM chart below).

SPY does look like a sort of low test on its 100MA and maybe near enough to SepS2. VIX has tested both its 2HP and Q3P. Given the level of the VIX I'd bet on rebound tomorrow. If that rebound is weak, watch out. Also, XIV broke its YP so VIX vehicles are not exactly giving green light here. 

SPY, VIX, IWM and XIV below. 

9/12/2016

From the latest Total market view: "The VIX has worked extremely well confirming the real trouble and when it is ending, so I will continue to use that to guide my decisions. Watch the reaction from Q3P to 2HP 18.28 to 20.07."

SPY & VIX below. Savvy traders were buying some early per VIX dropping below 20.07. As strong as Monday was, however, SPY is still below SepP and that is resistance until proven otherwise. 

I will upload charts as soon as the site allows. 

9/9/2016

Wow! Did I know today would be an absolute bloodbath when I wrote the last update at Thursday close? Of course not. But have I been stating "upside limited" for the last several weeks in various Total market view posts? Yes! (I'll collect all these statements soon and put them in a featured post, just like all my bullish comments 6/27+.)

Did these methods work to spot trouble? Yes again - I came in this morning to SPY and DIA below monthly pivots with VIX above its monthly pivot. When VIX confirms trouble I have learned to scram from longs first and ask questions later. And due to IWM yearly level, I took a hedging short on Wednesday close.* Nowhere to go with safe havens also coming down as well.

After boring everyone to tears, the market suddenly dropped off a cliff. Monday will be very interesting! Really, i have no idea - crash, down, sideways, bounce? I'll try to sort things out with all the charts coming soon on the blog!

SPY, VIX, XIV all below. 

* True story 

9/8/2016

I don't know what to think of today's action. SPY looks like mild pullback and decent hold of rising daily 20MA (bullish); but NDX looks like another drop below the 2000 high (bearish). DIA looks like weak buying from support (bearish); but IWM is minor selling from resistance (bullish).

Safe havens are not helping either: TLT big drop from SepP today which I think is mostly bullish for stocks; yet VIX reversal bar signals caution. 

Not sure how all this will shake out, but right now IWM YR1 has stopped the rally. 

SPY, NDX, DIA, IWM and TLT and VIX all below. 

9/7/2016

SPX set about the same as yesterday; above all pivots and not quite at my target zone. Pretty close though, with today's high just 6 points from SepR1 and then more important levels above that at 2199 and 2209. NDX set effectively reached my target zone, with NDX within 3 points of the level. I'm going to say close enough. NYA is also stuck on its SepR1. 

IWM has been quite healthy and zoomed to the YR1. Honestly I did not think it would get through this so easily. In addition, XIV is soaring too with just an incredible daily RSI reading today. These are very bullish signs. 

TLT jumped above all pivots for the 2nd time this month but faded all day. 

Basic bullish from here: USA mains higher, IWM above YR1; and TLT may drop below its SepP. Basic bearish would be rejection of IWM YR1, other indexes lower, TLT and GLD up. Right now it looks like bulls have the ball. 

Even if pro sellers seem like they are on vacation this week, remember, VIX is now in 11s and this is about where they tend to show up. 

SPY, QQQ, IWM, XIV, TLT below. 

9/6/2016

Market heading for target zones listed in the latest Total market view. As bullish as everything looks here, I am still expecting stiff resistance at these levels. Safe havens TLT and GLD back above all pivots lends credence to this view. 

SPX set below. 

9/2/2016

SPY in the last 2 trading days held the SepP, and today rebounded back above the YR1. The lower Bollinger band has basically held as support on close. SPY is back above all simple moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 400). Not even the hourly chart is overbought. There is just nothing wrong with this chart. Chances have increased that we see a high test and/or targets above that I have been pointing to for the last several weeks. 

9/1/2016

A confused situation, but stocks largely holding up despite the jump in safe havens.

SPY, QQQ, IWM and NYA all above SepPs; DIA not.

SPX held YR1 2163, again. SPY slightly below its YR1 however. 

TLT started well below its monthly pivot, then rallied all day and closed above its SepP too. VIX above its SepP says some caution warranted on the bull side. 

Basic bullish scenario would be TLT below AugP as DIA clears, VIX lower. Basic bearish scenario would be DIA staying below its AugP, TLT higher, VIX higher, and the other indexes that held today would break tomorrow. We'll see what happens. 

ps: 2016 leader SOXX / SMH completely ignoring the worries and making new highs. Always best to buy the leaders!

For today highlighting monthly pivots in large purple dots so they jump out. Make sure to look for 9/1 dot only, not August. USA main index ETFs below.

8/31/2016

SPY closed just under YR1 today, while ES1 bang on the level, and SPX cash held. VIX also dropped back under its AugP. Somewhat bearish, but could have been worse, with SPX YR1 2163 near the lows of the day. 

New Sept pivots in play tomorrow, and futures are testing levels as I type. But barring a big gap, both TLT and VIX will open above their SepPs and these probably pressure stocks. It could get interesting very soon. For now watch ESU SepP at 2167.50

8/30/2016

Decent hold of levels today: SPY and ES1 held their YR1s as VIX held AugP as resistance - bullish for stocks. A sign of real trouble will be if SPY breaks YR1 on close and VIX jumps above AugP (or soon SepP) - this hasn't happened yet. Although the sideways is wearing people out, don't get too bearish yet.

8/29/2016

SPY back above YR1 today, as SPX held YR1 near the low exact. A mild and healthy pullback so far, and take of "pause" rather than "top" as outlined in the latest Total market view on track. VIX back under AugP confirms the move.

TLT jumping the most though, calling BS on the rate increase idea. It is still below AugP, and 2 more trading days before September, but right now on track to open next month above all pivots. We'll see what happens. 

SPY, SPX, VIX, TLT below. 

8/25/2016

Using VIX and pivots, 8/25/2016 was the most threatening day for the market since 6/10/2016. The reason? 6/10 jumped above the VIX June pivot, and 8/25 closed above the August pivot. But I submit there is a difference in the explosion higher with clear look of support in June compared to the tepid range bound day in August. 

SPY managed to hang on to its YR1 by .07, and ES1 kept the look of support from its YR1 as well. Let's see if those hold tomorrow.

SPX set and VIX below. 

8/24/2016

Twice in August two of four USA main indexes have approached, but not quite tagged, key target areas. On 8/15 INDU came within 59 points of YR1; on 8/23 SPX came within 5 points of Q3R1 which was the lower end of a target zone. However, on 8/23 RTY / IWM tagged Q3R2, and we saw some selling today.

ISEE has been quite low the last 2 days, which means a lot of puts. This is not a lock, as there was one day early off the February stock index lows that was very - and correctly - high on ISEE (a lot of calls bought). Regardless, SPY and VIX did something interesting today. SPY held YR1 as support, and VIX fell very late in the day back near its AugP while appearing above for much of the afternoon. While closing fractionally above the level, it doesn't have the look of support just yet.

You could make a case for a hedging position or partial take depending on what you are in, but if VIX opens lower tomorrow below the AugP watch for an index bounce.

SPY, VIX and IWM below.

8/23/2016

Getting close to targets. From the recent Total market view: "ideal high area INDU YR1 18727 with other levels (Q3R2, 1HR1) a bit above that; SPX Q3R2 to 2HR1 2198-2209; NDX achieved 1 day above 4816 so if above that next pivot resistance level is AugR1 at 4857, and RUT Q3R2 to YR1 combo at 1246-1261."

INDU a bit further than 59 points, but SPX at 2193 just 5 points from target range, and RUT reached its Q3R2 and even closed above by 2 points. I am still holding out for INDU and SPX set to reach their target zones, and NDX to go a bit higher too. 

And with ISEE at a low for 2016, bears and/or demand for protection a little too fast too soon. A low ISEE value means a lot of puts. Some days close to the value on 8/23/2016 are 9/28/2015, 1/20/2016, 2/8/2016, 5/13/2016, etc. Translation: we just saw ISEE values today that are most usually at key lows! Bearish sentiment is just too thick.

One of the better analysts, Savita Subramanian at Bofa, made the news headlines today sounding alarm for elevated risk of correction. She has been bearish for a lot of 2016 with the latter link indicating caution 3/26 at SPX 2035 but basically I agree. Despite my view that markets should go higher in August, defying Jeffrey Gundlach, Tom Lee and GS in one fell swoop call, I now think upside is limited and think the chances of a hedge-able trade-able pullback are significant - and even more so when we see INDU tag its YR1 and SPX reach a bit higher. 

In other news, EEM had real selling today with a rejection of 3 pivot resistance levels - 2HR1, Q3R2 and AugR1. If you took th elong on 8/3, this is worth watching to protect gains. TLT is still below its AugP, but another month of sideways digestion without much damage to the trend. A jump above all pivots again would look pretty good. 

SPY, IWM, EEM and TLT below.

8/22/2016

So far market holding up well with SPY again holding YR1 as support and VIX & variants unconcerned. But often two small up bars invite selling. We'll see what happens.