8/18/2016

USA mains look quite healthy here with a minor pullback and hold of support this week, as bearish sentiment is quite thick. IWM, SOXX, EEM, FXI & USO leading all bullish for the markets. 

SPY & VIX below.

8/17/2016

From 8/16: "Watch those YR1s on SPY and ES1." Yup, those levels held near exact. I also mentioned the VIX AugP yesterday and that held too. 

Sentiment per ISEE was quite bearish for most of the day, which means too much fear too fast for just 2 days after the highs. And as per this post, it is hard to remember such a slew of well publicized top callers. 

For now I remain constructive on longs and hoping for the ideal target levels across indexes that I have listed in the Total market view posts the last few weeks. But GLD is zipping overnight and TLT also looks decent. I'll be more concerned about stocks if TLT recovers its AugP.

SPX set below, and VIX for kicks. I've said it before, will say it again, pivots on VIX are just peaches and cream. 

8/16/2016

Hope I just didn't miss the high by waiting for INDU to tag its YR1 - that was just 59 Dow cash points on Monday, or .32%. Sigh. 

SPY and ES1 YR1s back in play. If they break, then it could look like an exhuberant overshoot by a handful of days; kind of like 2/8-11 reverse. But if it holds again, then I'll still watch for a move to the INDU set YR1 as originally planned. 

Safe haven TLT lower; GLD closed fractionally above its AugP but dropping after hours; VIX still below AugP but XIV some rejection of AugR1. So market not screaming sell here. 

Kinda funny to see all that red and oil up... since oil was blamed for all the stock declines in the first half. 

SPX set below. Watch those YR1s on SPY and ES1. 

8/15/2016

USA mains are healthy, and not yet at resistance (close but not yet). Safe havens TLT and GLD which dominated the first half of 2016 are both below monthly pivots. This is not a huge deal in itself, but consider the stock rally that began in February solidified when indexes reclaimed monthly pivots after holding major levels (similar but not exact, with TLT and GLD topping out on Q3R1s, while nearly all stock index lows involved YS1s).

Sentiment is not too toppy, oil is rebounding back above all pivots on the CL1 contract, USA small caps and global stocks all participating, and China is making a move. Weak links DAX and NKY held pivot support on the recent 8/2 area lows. Risk assets are looking good here. 

If I were running a fund here I'd be nibbling on starter shorts on DAX with r/r (risk reward) clearly defined at the YP. Otherwise it is wait and see what happens on INDU set YR1s, which I have been consistently pointing to as a primary target for the last few weeks in Total market view posts. 

SPY below, and for a change of pace, the INDU set - keep an eye on those YR1s because they are within reach! That would be 18727 cash, 188.03 DIA, 18688 YM1, and 18782 YMU. These vary a bit, but if we get 2 or especially 3 tagging and reversing, especially if sentiment picks up, I will be thinking trading top.

And lastly, DAX below too - a perfect short idea. YP tag and drop, RSI overbought, top of daily and weekly Bollinger bands. Although if you had 200% leverage possibility you'd probably want to be 180% long and 20% short in this kind of market, max (let's say 10% short TLT per my rec of 7/6 to short 143.64), 5% short GLD, 5% short DAX with possible add in the near future).

8/10/2016

So far today's drop is not anything to get too worried about. I'm talking USA mains here, and specifically the SPX set. Not oil, EWZ, RSX, etc. 

SPY closed at 217.64. The YR1 is 217.63. Not a coincidence! 

+s
SPY and ES1 still holding YR1 as support
QQQ still holding Q3R2 as support (by a similar fraction as SPY above)
VIX below all pivots
TLT failed to clear AugP, and really could have consider 2016 as a whole

-s
Oil back under all pivots, may drag down
VIX kinda sorta reversal bar
GLD above all pivots (safe haven strength)
XIV rejection of AugR1

The way I played it: I wasn't sure oil was going to break 2HP before I left screens for a while, so took a small short on RSX based on my scan this morning. See this post, which was actually written and posted before the open. No charts to prove that however. But if you look at next post that came after, you will see a TLT chart from early in the day. Anyway, you could call this RSX short a hedge against my EEM portion long (trimmed yesterday as noted). 

If TLT reclaims its AugP, then geez, have to buy and/or cover the short if you are in that. Small GLD long position, holding only above the AugP. And if SPY any lower tomorrow, then there is the decision to take some profits or put on a very low cost hedge. By low cost I mean a close back above the YR1 means take hedge off. This will probably be a fraction of a 1%. 

SPX set below.

8/9/2016

Today's small up bars are not the greatest, but as long as SPY and ES1 hold above their YR1s, and VIX/XIV not showing any sign of trouble, then best to hold longs.

Remember, my basic view is that I'd rather see multiple USA main indexes on major resistance for a key trading high, and that isn't the case here. Most of all I'd like to see Dow reach its YR1 - not quite yet. 

EEM & TLT are tougher decisions. More on both of those a bit later in a blog post.

SPX set below. 

8/8/2016

Despite the minor selling I view today as bullish because both SPY and QQQ rallied to close above potential resistance. If the market can turn resistance into support, then it is going higher. 

XIV AugR1 might be worth watching tomorrow. 

SPY, QQQ, XIV and EEM below. EEM continuing to fly, mentioned on 8/3 as a great buy setup.

8/4/2016

SPX closed slightly above its YP, but not enough to be convincing. We'll see what happens with the jobs report tomorrow. SPX set below (SPY looks like bad tick in data).

Also: EEM highlighted yesterday moving well so far. 

8/3/2016

Yesterday: "My take from here: Watch VIX / XIV monthly pivots, then SPY Q3R1 / AugP support, QQQ 2HR1 support, DIA AugP, and NYA AugP. As you can see, plenty of monthly pivot support very nearby. Much better for the bulls if those hold."

First of all, I misspoke. XIV wasn't testing its monthly pivot yet, but its YP. Other than that error, take was pretty good as:

VIX AugP held as resistance; XIV YP held as support (both bullish for stocks)
SPY Q3R1 held as support near exact on low of the day
QQQ 2HR1 didn't test, still all above, was near low of day 8/2
DIA AugP near low of day yesterday, all above today
NYA AugP near LOD (low of day) exact

So, the case could be made for an ideal pullback low here on multiple pivot support that has held. The crowd was a bit too bullish today so we'll see how far tomorrow gets. Big level to watch from here is SPX YR1 2163 which closed bang on the level.

SPX set below, along with an EEM chart with a several moving averages for your consideration - the ones in play are a rising 20MA in orange, and a flattening 400MA in thick brown (400 daily = 20 monthly, approximately). Hint: EEM chart looks like great risk-reward buy here with clear lift from YP, lifting from nicely rising daily 20MA, clearing daily 400MA slightly. My idea is to hold larger position above the D400, and decent position above the YP. 

8/2/2016

The market gods might be punishing me for daring to question Jeff Gundlach's top call on 8/1, which I wrote up here. If it was him alone I would not have thought to comment, but found it odd that a stock bear, a perma-bull and Goldman were all saying the same thing within days of each other. How can they all be right?

The damage: SPX broke its YP, slightly. SPY and ES1 look more like rejections on enough volume to count. Yet 4 of 5 USA main indexes held some other support, and XIV / VIX are right on their monthly pivots. 

Sure, if you were max & leveraged long out of the 6/27-28 then 7/5-6 buy areas, you could have reduced somewhat near SPY & ES1 for a low cost hedge. But if you were moderately long, then you have done well, and reducing too fast is not the way to play it.

My take from here: Watch VIX / XIV monthly pivots, then SPY Q3R1 / AugP support, QQQ 2HR1 support, DIA AugP, and NYA AugP. As you can see, plenty of monthly pivot support very nearby. Much better for the bulls if those hold. 

Interesting development: TLT down below AugP near AugS1 while GLD/GDX soaring above. These have moved in tandem most of this year. 

SPX set below, then VIX & XIV. 

8/1/2016

Yet again, SPY and ES1 finished below YR1s with SPX and ESU above. But with VIX and TLT both below new monthly pivots, along with Tech strength I give more chance for a move up. 

ps - if you took the TLT stab short near 143.64 as recommended on 7/6, then you have an easy no-lose hold below the AugP. 

 

 

7/29/2016

Again! The SPX set stayed between YR1 on SPY and ES1 (acting as resistance) yet above YR1 on SPX and ESU (acting as support). This will break one way or the other soon. We'll try to figure out which way in our comprehensive weekend posts. 

7/28/2016

The SPX set pivot stalemate continues - above SPX and ESU YR1s, but stuck under SPY and ES1 YR1s. All charts below. 

Including the other USA mains, the picture is still more bullish than bearish. DIA held Q3R1 as support today, and QQQ lifted above its 2HR1 for the 2nd day with no sign of rejection. 

Oil is weak. USO has been below all pivots since 7/21, CLU since 7/22, and now the definitive CL1 has broker below all pivots just in the last 2 days on 7/27. I am a bit surprised the 2HP gave way without any bounce at all but that's how it played out. CL1 below.

7/27/2016

Our pivot dilemma continues. Since 7/14 on ESU and from 7/20 on SPX, YR1 has acted as support. Yet on ES1 and SPY, YR1 has acted as resistance from 7/14 and 7/20 respectively. All charts below.

The longer the market digests the rally off the 6/27 lows by going sideways, the more chance of higher. That said, impressive rally by the safe havens TLT and GLD today. TLT pivots missed the turn, but TNX has been working well. More on that soon.

CL1 is currently within pennies of its last support, 2HP. Any lower would likely pressure stocks and increase the pop in bonds. 

7/26/2016

Indecision continues on the SPX set - if you look at SPX and ESU you would be bullish, but SPY and ES1 look like a top. This should be resolved soon, especially with FOMC on Weds. 

7/25/2016

SPX set still congested with the lower YR1s holding as support and the upper YR1s acting as resistance. How is this possible? Well, SPY and ES1 YR1 are relatively higher than SPX and ESU. Check the charts below for the large red crosses (YR1s) and you'll see. Hard to draw a firm conclusion here; right now the indecision continues. Above the resistance would be bullish; break of support would be bearish.

VIX / XIV not helping with any clues today. NYA looks bit more bearish with rejection of Q3R1, but IWM holding, so similarly mixed. 

The selloff blamed on oil and that does look like a YP rejection on the CL1 contract. It really needs to hold 1HP as support. 

SPY, ES1, SPX, ESU, CL1 all below. 

7/22/2016

Wow, SPY looks like it is going to try to clear YR1! What an amazing move from the YP then Q3P straight to Q3R1 and now the YR1! We'll see what happens next week.