Yesterday I thought it would take longer for SPX to test its 2018 high and HR1 area - the market proved me wrong on that. But what I have been definitely right about was that IWM and other small caps would more likely power through to a new high before tech / NDX QQQ / FAANG / XBI / SMH.

8/11 USA main indexes: "At this point I think RUT has a greater chance of clearing its YR2 than NDX."

8/11 Total market view: "Also, as noted above, both biotechs and semi-conductors (XBI and SMH) are a bit weaker, which makes it less likely that NDX QQQ will power up above its YR2. Therefore, along with DXY strength, I'm thinking that RUT IWM will have the best chance at the next leadership move."

8/18 USA main indexes: "2018 gainers QQQ and IWM having trouble to push through resistance areas, but so far just going sideways. If other indexes are moving up then a rally on at least one of these is more likely. If picking one to get through I'm still think IWM has the better chance."

8/19 Total market view: "Of all the sectors that look ready to propel higher I think IWM and other various small cap growth will make the move. I'm referring to ETFs like VIOG, VIOO, VBK, VTWG here (though time may prevent detailed tracking). These are on the 2018 YTD leaderboard and I think greater potential to continue higher than the more crowded tech."

DING DING DING!

RUT IWM powered up above its YR2 today and made a decent new high. All the growth small cap ETFs (Vanguard versions quoted above) had great gains today as well. Compare this to NDX QQQ rather stuck, XBI and SMH still under MPs, and KWEB still under its YP.

All that said there were some bearish moves today:
VIX held its YP with a reversal bar
SPX rejected HR1 near tag
NDX rejected QR1 near tag
RUT faded from from futures (RTY) AugR1

But with sentiment far from euphoric, I'm allowing for the possibility of a shuffle here while thinking the market will go higher yet before a major top.