7/30/2018

Per the recent Total market view on the blog, the door was open for more selling and we got it.

Shifting defensive last week by taking profits or hedging on volatility or correlated shorts has paid. 

SPX looks more like YR1 rejection, bearish
NDX continues HR1 QR1 rejection that began 7/26; depending on 7/31 could open below AugP, bearish
DJI fell back under QR1 slightly, bearish
RUT continues smackdown from YR2, looking like 3rd time the charm and now under JulP, bearish!
NYA ironically doing the best after months of weaker performance in international stocks

VIX continued up from YP
VXX also closed somewhat above JulS1, so actually this was the first in recent days that both VIX and VXX gave the same message

So bearish action across USA mains, especially IWM and QQQ, and XBI on the sectors, along with VIX / VXX confirmation - not a day to ignore. Given the combined message of the markets, it was time to de-risk even further. 

However, SPY is threatened, but still just a pullback to a rising D20MA and likely above AugP. USO and XLE current total pivotal momentum leaders, and XLF also benefiting from bond drop. If XLE and XLF hold up, SPX will not drop that much. I'll be carefully watching AugPs on Wednesday for status. 

SPX and VIX below.