7/11/2018

Today was mostly bearish.

DJI and NYA broke under their 2HPs. DJI was fractional but still. Having all 5 USA main indexes above all pivots was part of my idea for higher highs in leaders IWM and QQQ, and YR1 test for SPY. 

IWM dropped from YR2 / JulR1 combo, and QQQ JulR1 looking like resistance.

VIX and VXX moved off the lows, so the hedging move suggested two days ago has paid somewhat.

Further, XLF gave back gains and finished under QP, and XLE got whacked along with oil. SMH also broke back under its MP and testing its HP QP combo along with D200MA. A breakdown there could be a big whoosh so watching that now as a re-entry short. 

But somehow SPX / SPY just doesn't look too bad. JulR1 varies slightly per cash index, ETF and futures - as I type, ES back above JulR1 at 2780.

Bottom line - if you have been following along then some positions are still OK but others saw gains evaporate. Regardless, with all these bearish events it is better to be less long and still have the volatility hedge. The main question is does the market turn right here, or will we see higher highs in IWM, QQQ and SPY. Jury is out - but definitely less likely with DJI and NYA back under 2HPs.

SPY, DIA, XLF below.