Mild bounce today, but not much change in pivot status. In fact, the two weaker indexes DIA and NYA, tried to recover pivots but didn't. This is usually bearish when pivots act as resistance.

Also, VIX tested and held its MP as support.

The few things adding to the bounce case are that VXX closed back under all pivots, TLT has been anemic this week, and GLD has been getting killed under all pivots.

If smart money was really concerned about a trade war and/or currency devaluation, don't you think TLT and GLD would be higher?

So at this point I think more downside to stocks, but we could be nearing a decent bounce. And if lower daily Bollinger bands continue to hold as support, then this becomes even more likely.

USO was rather exciting - again - jumping above all pivots for a major launch. Classic late cycle, behavior, as oil outperformed SPX significantly in 2007 as well. The only difference today is that commonly available technology (hello TSLA) already makes oil obsolete - so the current out-performance is only a matter of time.

I'm also starting to track the pending new 2HP, Q3P and July pivots.

Currently IWM remains in the lead, above all projected pivots based on the 6/26 close. But after that, at least according to the main indexes, the situation is mixed. DIA remains weak, and on track to open below HP, QP and MP - significantly weak. This is also the case with XLF.

It is hard to imaging a bullish Q3 with both Dow and financials on track to start the quarter below 3 of 4 major pivots.

SPY and VIX below.