6/13/2017

The premise of The Pivotal Perspective is that important market turns have historically - and thus far continue - to be made on pivots. Someday this may not work, but for the last many years (and decades) it has done very well. If you are a new reader and question this, please read this post of the key turns since 2005 on Dow yearly levels. 

And so here we are - market testing Dow YR1. There isn't really any sign of a turn. The level is being approached confidently, not tepidly. Other indexes have already cleared levels, so this is more the case of last one to join the party instead of multiple indexes all being rejected. There isn't much sentiment euphoria. Safe havens via TLT and GLD are doing OK, but no sign of divergence in VIX and XIV. All this points to the greater chance of Dow clearing its YR1 as the next move.

But still, given the key turns of many years on Dow yearly levels, I'm still watching for a turn. 

SPY, DIA, XIV below.