11/9/2017

All the ingredients for a trend down day were there - deteriorating internals, bond market jitters, small caps already leading the way, and volatility in Asia. But at the end of the day, SPX stayed above all pivots and held YR2 as support; VIX traded through NovP and Q4P to 2HP, and finished below all pivots; XIV tested NovP and had a huge comeback. 

This doesn't mean the resumption of relentless uptrend. I view this as part of a topping process. SPY looks quite different from SPX and we'll soon see which version wins out. The last total market view suggested IWM and EEM as hedging vehicles, and this week GLD moving above all pivots is also a safe haven contender. 

SPX, SPY, VIX and XIV below.

9 2 SPX D.png
9 3 SPY D.png
9 5 XIV D.png