Well it was just a fantastic week for The Pivotal Perspective and it is times like these that make all the homework worthwhile. INDA, QQQ, SMH and EEM (half the current portfolio) among the leaders in gains. And while many people, including some very smart names like Gundlach and Kolanovic, were calling for correction; I opted for bullish resolution, positioned that way, and got it.
Keep in mind that I am maintaining this project in about 15 minutes a day and a couple hours on weekends, and if you review actual recommendations the results are on par with many professional commentators and services. (I have done this sort of thing professionally after all, and a lot more possible if more time available - individual stocks, currencies, etc.) In addition, calculating returns beats most hedge funds and even most quant funds this year. All this while maintaining a fierce protection of capital to have the security of knowing that the chance if a sizeable drawdown is extremely slim, as it would take an out of the blue black swan event to not be out of positions or hedged. If the in and out is too much for you, then a simple solution, just use weekly charts and long term levels. But I view flexibility as a feature not a bug and so don't mind drilling down to the daily level.
As usual I'll try to figure out the next most likely move with full analysis on the blog this weekend. If you don't understand my charts and lingo, then just read the Sum section in the the Total market view posted each weekend. For example the latest version, as clear as i can be, while explaining my line of thinking (also, please see FAQ tab for abbreviations):
"Basically with VIX dropping from 2HP / Q3P, yearly levels threatening break yet recovering, pivot holds or recoveries on SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, VTI, VIX and XIV all (!) on 7/7, I'm going with idea of near term bullish resolution. .... Based on safe havens and larger trends for stocks without any recent bullish sentiment extreme, I think ball in bull's court."
SPY, INDA, QQQ, SMH and EEM below - after SPY, all recent buy recommendations from 7/5-10 so caught the blast-off this week!
PS - Nice pick on GLD too (7/11 buy rec, one day off multi month low).
