Portfolio delivering despite being 100% stocks minus a break-even GLD position. Now the key question is - where is the top? And if we are near a top, what is the best plan?

The ideal high happens with widespread bullish sentiment. Two days ago, ISEE had the 3rd highest reading of the decade. That qualifies! However, the ISEE moving averages are middling; put-call data on both daily and weekly charts is elevated; AAII readings more bearish than bullish the last 3 weeks; and NAIIM exposure readings backing off from higher levels. In short, the ISEE may have been a one day bullish wonder.

More importantly, the ideal high happens on multiple pivot resistance levels with other technical divergence, along with VIX/XIV confirmation. The pivot levels in play are:

SPY JulR1
DIA JulR1
NYA JulR1 + YR1 just above

Typically it would take more than monthly levels for a key high, but I'd say a bit more likely in summer months. If those monthly levels clear, then we can start aiming for Q3R1s and above.

The other thing we would probably see at highs is RSI overbought on multiple timeframes. Currently, on SPY, weekly RSI 68.5 (close but not quite), daily 58.3 and hourly SPY has not been fully overbought (70+) since 6/5. In other words, RSI room to go up.

Lastly, I think we would also see safe haven strength via VIX / XIV divergence, or TLT & GLD strength. This isn't happening yet.

Is a trading top possible here? Yes, I guess, based on the 3 monthly levels, and the one sentiment reading. But compared to other key highs like 3/1, arguments for a high here are weak. But I'll revisit the TPP top checklist over the weekend on the blog.

No change to positioning.

SPY & DIA below.