5/9/2017

For the last two weeks I have said markets are a toss up but I'd like to see test of SPX set YR1 and NDX set YR2. That came pretty close today with NDX/QQQ bang on YR2, and SPX within 3 points of YR1.

At the same time, VIX recovered Q2S1 slightly as TLT held Q2P. 

This may sound a bit crazy but this is what tops look like. Portfolio at 120% is still very long. It was a huge drag to buy IWM instead of QQQ on 4/20. Let's ditch that or tighten up stops below the MayP. Further let's hedge QQQ based on YR2, and now a total of 4 SPY units so hedging 2 of them. This takes portfolio to 70% long from 120% with low cost hedges. If market powers up tomorrow I will be wrong and it will cost just a bit to cover these hedges, but if correct portfolio is locking in gains on a decent top.

SPY, SPX and QQQ below.