5/8/2017

No change to USA main index pivot status, with all 5 above all pivots as IWM held MayP again. SPX is right in key resistance area of 2400-2407 and so far weak selling gives edge to bulls. 

VIX collapsed under Q2S1 slightly, and appears 1HS1 is doable. XIV reached next target zone of MayR1 to 1HR3. TLT, AGG and GLD all weaker as well. All this is bullish for risk assets.

But a few items of concern:
SPY still stalled at 3/1 close high.
ES1 continuous contract some selling from YR1 (it is pesky to have slight variations in cash, ETF and futures levels but that's how it goes being thorough).
DXY strength, potentially jeapardizing global overweight - better for DXY to stay under YP.
China weakness via FXI and SHComp, could drag EEM down.
INDA slight break of MayP.
Advance-decline volume difference negative on daily & weekly charts.
Average true range on SPY on daily and weekly charts places where correction more likely (more on this soon in a blog post).

Despite these concerns I think the thing to do is hold again and take action if more pivots speak - ie, if IWM breaks MayP that will be a reduction. If VIX or XIV has a bearish conclusion for risk, then that would be an additional point to reduce. I will hold INDA one more day. 

If you are more bearish and are looking for shorts, start with indexes below Q2Ps: XLF, FXI, EWZ. SHC and XLE are below all pivots, as well as USO, but shorts on the latter are simply late. (Ps, these shorts are not counting as portfolio recommendations).

SPX, SPY and ES1 below.