3/8/2017

Finally this year, a hedged position did some good. It bothers me that VIX and XIV are not showing trouble, but a bit higher on VIX will change that so willing to hold the hedges.

Also, monthly Bollinger band configurations on USA main indexes look negative.

I'll be watching NYA tomorrow, likely to test is MarP. This is an old school index but still giving fantastic signals on the pivots - check below.

Lastly, the days that stocks and bonds drop together are of particular interest. Even though still fairly long the market (no exposure to bonds though), I recognize that this represents pure pain to most passive investors. There may come a day where both stock indexes and bonds are below quarterly pivots. But that's not the case right now and though I remain in upside limited & somewhat bearish camp in short term, when 4 of 5 USA main indexes are above all pivots it means portfolio should still be mostly long.

Cutting INDA back under its MarP so that means 90% long with 3 hedges is only 60% long. Watching VIX and NYA MarPs tomorrow - if those look bearish for stocks, hold the hedges. 

SPY, NYA and VIX below. 

3/9 9:35 EST correction: INDA still above MarP. 100% long, 3 hedges (1 SPY, 2 IWM) = 70%.