3/7/2017

So far, top calls near 3/1 & 3/2 are playing out, but decline has been a creeper move. On the daily charts it looks like we could easily see a high retest of sorts. Zooming out to weekly or monthly charts, however, the drop looks more threatening, or at very least suggests minimal upside from here. 

+s
VIX still below all pivots, and XIV above 1HR2 today
QQQ still above 1HR2, slightly
Most USA main indexes have rising daily 20MAs to help act as support
TLT looks terrible, and GLD below 1HP today, first since 2/3 (working assumption as recently repeated: safe haven weakness usually a positive for stock indexes, and vice-versa)

-s
IWM clear rejection from MarP
Weekly & monthly charts on USA main indexes look like decent top is in

Choice is to maintain 90% long, take gains or hedge. IWM is leading lower and clearly below the MarP. IWM has stalled all year and is now back below 2016 highs. Although sitting on D50MA which could be support, this level has already broken 2-3x this year (1 of those was slight break). Therefore I think the best move is a short hedge, 2 units on IWM, valid below the MarP. 

This means portfolio is 100% long with 3 short hedges, for 70% net long. One unit just off SPY 1HR2 level and 2 more today. 

SPY and IWM below.